Week Ahead

Next week important releases include US preliminary reading of Michigan consumer sentiment, industrial output, and producer and foreign trade prices; UK inflation and retail trade; Eurozone industrial production; Germany 2018 GDP growth; China trade figures; Japan inflation and machinery orders; Australia consumer morale; India inflation and wholesale prices; and interest rate decisions from Turkey, Indonesia and South Africa. Investors will also react to UK parliamentary vote on Brexit deal and OPEC's monthly report.

Next week the US will be publishing January's preliminary reading of Michigan consumer sentiment, which is expected to show a further deterioration in consumer morale. In addition, the Federal Reserve, which doesn’t rely on Congress for funding, is scheduled to release its monthly report on industrial production and capacity utilization on Friday, with markets anticipating a slowdown in output growth in December. Other important releases include producer and foreign trade prices, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, NAHB Housing Market Index and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. Meanwhile, key economic data such as new home sales, construction spending, wholesale inventories, factory orders and international trade continue to be delayed due to the ongoing partial government shutdown.

The UK parliament will vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement Tuesday and the outcome is again uncertain. If the Brexit deal is rejected, mainly due to the Irish backstop, the government will have to come up with a plan-B within three parliamentary working days. Regarding the economic calendar, consumer, producer and retail prices, alongside retail trade figures for December will be released. Inflation is likely to ease further to a near two-year low and retail sales are expected to drop the most since March.

Elsewhere in Europe, traders will keep an eye on the Eurozone industrial and construction activity, trade data and current account. Industrial output is expected to fall for the first time since January 2017, adding to concerns over a global economic slowdown. Germany will release its preliminary estimate of 2018 GDP growth, which is set to show a slowdown in expansion to 1.5 percent from 2.2 percent in 2017. In addition, the Central Bank of Turkey will be deciding on interest rates next week, but no changes are expected.

In China investors will focus on December’s trade figures. Export growth is expected to slow further while imports will probably rise at a faster pace amid ongoing trade tensions with the US. Other important data include foreign direct investment and house price index. Meanwhile, Japan will release consumer inflation and machinery orders. The nationwide core inflation was seen slowing for a second straight month in December while machinery orders are likely to expand at a slower pace in November. Investors will also be waiting for India's trade balance and consumer and wholesale prices. Annual inflation rate is expected to ease further to an 18-month low, and wholesale prices are set to rise at a softer 4.4 percent. Australia will be publishing Westpac consumer confidence and home loans.

Other highlights include: Canada inflation; Brazil retail trade; and Indonesia and South Africa interest rate decisions.

Market players will also focus on OPEC’s monthly report as oil prices remain at low levels while worries about oversupply and signs of a softening global growth persist.


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
1/11/2019 4:09:30 PM



 


Friday January 11 2019 Actual Previous Consensus
12:00 AM
US
Fed Clarida Speech
12:30 AM
AU
Retail Sales MoM NOV 0.4% 0.3%
03:00 AM
TH
Unemployment Rate DEC 0.9% 1%
05:00 AM
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook DEC 48.5 52.2
07:00 AM
RO
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q3 4.4% 4.1%
07:00 AM
RO
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3 1.9% 1.5%
08:20 AM
EA
ECB Mersch Speech
09:00 AM
IT
Industrial Production MoM NOV -1.6% 0.1%
09:30 AM
GB
Manufacturing Production MoM NOV -0.3% -0.6% ®
09:30 AM
GB
GDP YoY NOV 1.4% 1.6% ®
09:30 AM
GB
GDP MoM NOV 0.2% 0.1%
09:30 AM
GB
Construction Output YoY NOV 3% 4.1% ®
09:30 AM
GB
Industrial Production YoY NOV -1.5% -0.9% ®
09:30 AM
GB
Industrial Production MoM NOV -0.4% -0.5% ®
09:30 AM
GB
GDP 3-Month Avg NOV 0.3% 0.4%
09:30 AM
GB
Manufacturing Production YoY NOV -1.1% -0.7% ®
09:30 AM
GB
Balance of Trade NOV £-2.904B £-3.037B ®
11:00 AM
BR
Inflation Rate YoY DEC 3.75% 4.05%
12:00 PM
IN
Industrial Production YoY NOV 0.5% 8.4% ®
12:00 PM
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY NOV -0.4% 8.2% ®
01:30 PM
US
Core Inflation Rate MoM DEC 0.2% 0.2%
01:30 PM
US
Inflation Rate MoM DEC -0.1% 0%
01:30 PM
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY DEC 2.2% 2.2%
01:30 PM
US
Inflation Rate YoY DEC 1.9% 2.2%
02:00 PM
GB
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker DEC 0.3% 0.4% ®
Monday January 14 2019 Actual Previous Consensus
02:50 AM
CN
FDI (YTD) YoY DEC 0.9% -1.3%
03:00 AM
CN
Exports YoY DEC -4.4% 5.4%
03:00 AM
CN
Imports YoY DEC -7.6% 3%
06:30 AM
IN
WPI Manufacturing YoY DEC 3.59% 4.21%
06:30 AM
IN
WPI Food YoY DEC -0.07% -3.31%
06:30 AM
IN
WPI Fuel YoY DEC 8.38% 16.28%
06:30 AM
IN
WPI Inflation YoY DEC 3.8% 4.64%
07:00 AM
DE
Wholesale Prices MoM DEC -1.2% 0.2%
07:00 AM
DE
Wholesale Prices YoY DEC 2.5% 3.5%
08:30 AM
SE
CPIF YoY DEC 2.2% 2.1%
08:30 AM
SE
Inflation Rate MoM DEC 0.4% -0.1%
10:00 AM
EA
Industrial Production YoY NOV -3.3% 1.2%
10:00 AM
EA
Industrial Production MoM NOV -1.7% 0.1% ®
12:00 PM
IN
Inflation Rate YoY DEC 2.19% 2.33%
Tuesday January 15 2019 Actual Previous Consensus
04:00 AM
MY
Unemployment Rate NOV 3.3% 3.3%
05:30 AM
NL
Balance of Trade NOV €6.98B €4.92B ®
07:00 AM
TR
Unemployment Rate OCT 11.6% 11.4%
08:00 AM
ES
Inflation Rate YoY Final DEC 1.2% 1.7%
09:00 AM
DE
Full Year GDP Growth 2018 1.5% 2.2%
09:00 AM
DE
Government Budget 2018 1.7% 1%
10:00 AM
EA
Balance of Trade NOV €19B €14.7B ®
11:00 AM
BR
Retail Sales MoM NOV 2.9% -1.1% ®
11:00 AM
BR
Retail Sales YoY NOV 4.4% 1.9%
11:00 AM
IE
Inflation Rate YoY DEC 0.7% 0.6%
12:35 PM
IN
Balance of Trade DEC $-13.08B $-16.67B
01:30 PM
US
PPI MoM DEC -0.2% 0.1%
01:30 PM
US
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index JAN 3.9 11.5 ®
03:00 PM
EA
ECB President Draghi Speech
03:00 PM
US
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism JAN 52.3 52.6
04:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank Wuermeling Speech
04:30 PM
IL
Inflation Rate MoM DEC -0.3% -0.3%
04:30 PM
US
Fed Kashkari Speech
06:00 PM
US
Fed George Speech
07:00 PM
GB
Parliamentary Vote on Brexit Deal Y 202/N 432
09:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change JAN/11 -0.56M -6.27M ®
11:50 PM
JP
Machinery Orders MoM NOV 0% 7.6%
11:50 PM
JP
Machinery Orders YoY NOV 0.8% 4.5%
Wednesday January 16 2019 Actual Previous Consensus
12:30 AM
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change JAN -4.7% 0.1%
12:30 AM
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index JAN 99.6 104.4
01:30 AM
CN
House Price Index YoY DEC 9.7% 9.3%
07:00 AM
DE
Inflation Rate YoY Final DEC 1.7% 2.3%
08:00 AM
NG
Inflation Rate YoY DEC 11.44% 11.28%
09:15 AM
GB
BoE Gov Carney Speech
09:30 AM
GB
Inflation Rate MoM DEC 0.2% 0.2%
09:30 AM
GB
Core Inflation Rate MoM DEC 0.3% 0.3%
09:30 AM
GB
Core Inflation Rate YoY DEC 1.9% 1.8%
09:30 AM
GB
PPI Input YoY DEC 3.7% 5.3% ®
09:30 AM
GB
PPI Input MoM DEC -1% -2.6% ®
09:30 AM
GB
Retail Price Index YoY DEC 2.7% 3.2%
09:30 AM
GB
Retail Price Index MoM DEC 0.4% 0.1% ®
09:30 AM
GB
Inflation Rate YoY DEC 2.1% 2.3%
11:00 AM
TR
TCMB Interest Rate Decision 24% 24%
11:10 AM
IL
GDP Growth Rate QoQ 3rd Est Q3 0.6% 0.1% ®
01:30 PM
US
Export Prices YoY DEC 1.1% 1.8%
01:30 PM
US
Export Prices MoM DEC -0.6% -0.8% ®
01:30 PM
US
Import Prices YoY DEC -0.6% 0.5% ®
01:30 PM
US
Import Prices MoM DEC -1% -1.9% ®
03:00 PM
US
NAHB Housing Market Index JAN 58 56
03:30 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 11/JAN 7.503M 8.066M
03:30 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 11/JAN -2.683M -1.68M
06:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank Mauderer Speech
07:00 PM
GB
PM May No Confidence Vote
Thursday January 17 2019 Actual Previous Consensus