Week Ahead

Next week the final estimate of US Q4 GDP growth will be keenly watched, alongside foreign trade, personal income and outlays, housing data and current account. Elsewhere, important releases include: UK final Q4 GDP growth, consumer sentiment and monetary indicators; Eurozone business survey; Germany consumer and business morale, inflation, retail trade and unemployment; Japan industrial output, retail sales and jobless rate; China NBS PMIs; and Australia private sector credit. Investors will also react to US-China trade talks and the ongoing Brexit negotiations.

Next week the US will be publishing the final estimate of fourth-quarter GDP, alongside first estimate of corporate profits, with market forecasts suggesting economic growth was 2.5 percent, slightly weaker than initially thought. In addition, the US trade deficit is seen narrowing in January, after hitting a decade-high in December amid an ongoing tariff war with China. The BEA will release personal income for February, as well as personal outlays for January; and the Census Bureau will provide updated figures for new home sales, housing starts and building permits. Other notable publications are Q4 current account, pending home sales, S&P/Case-Shiller home prices, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, Chicago PMI and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment .

US-China trade talks will also be in the spotlight in the coming week on hopes that the world's largest economies could reach an agreement on trade when they meet in Beijing on March 28th and 29th.

Other highlights for America include: Canada trade figures and monthly GDP; Mexico interest rate decision, trade balance and unemployment; and Brazil jobless rate.
 
In the UK, investors wait to see if Prime Minister Theresa May manage to win support for her deal next week. If she does so, the UK will leave the European Union on May 22nd; otherwise Britain will face a hard exit on April 12th. On the economic data front, important releases include final figures of fourth-quarter GDP growth and business investment, alongside current account. Preliminary estimates from the ONS pointed to a slowdown in Britain’s economy, with business investment shrinking the most in nearly two years. Furthermore, March’s Gfk consumer confidence is expected to match December’s five-year low. Also, the Bank of England will publish its monetary indicators.

Elsewhere in Europe, market watchers will keep an eye on the Eurozone business survey; Germany business and consumer morale, unemployment data, retail trade and preliminary inflation figures; France and Italy industry and consumer sentiment; Switzerland KOF leading indicators; and Turkey manufacturing confidence and trade balance.

The Bank of Japan will publish the summary of opinions from board members from its March meeting. Investors will also be waiting for unemployment rate, preliminary reading of industrial production, retail sales and housing starts. Meanwhile, China's NBS PMIs for the manufacturing and service sectors will be released, with forecasts siganling another contraction in factory activity during March. Other important data for the Asia-Pacific region include: Australia private sector credit; New Zealand interest rate decision and trade figures; India current account; South Korea consumer and business confidence, industrial production and retail sales; Hong Kong trade balance; and Vietnam Q1 GDP growth.


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
3/22/2019 5:50:18 PM



 


Friday March 22 2019 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
JP
Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Flash MAR 48.9 48.9
04:00 AM
MY
Inflation Rate YoY FEB -0.4% -0.7%
08:00 AM
TW
Unemployment Rate FEB 3.71% 3.72%
08:15 AM
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
08:15 AM
FR
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash MAR 49.8 51.5
08:15 AM
FR
Markit Services PMI Flash MAR 48.7 50.2
08:30 AM
EA
ECB Angeloni Speech
08:30 AM
DE
Markit Services PMI Flash MAR 54.9 55.3
08:30 AM
DE
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash MAR 44.7 47.6
09:00 AM
EA
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash MAR 47.6 49.3
09:00 AM
EA
Markit Services PMI Flash MAR 52.7 52.8
10:15 AM
EA
ECB Mersch Speech
10:30 AM
RU
Interest Rate Decision 7.75% 7.75%
12:00 PM
RU
Monetary Policy Report
12:00 PM
GB
BoE Quarterly Bulletin
12:30 PM
CA
Core Inflation Rate YoY FEB 1.5% 1.5%
12:30 PM
CA
Inflation Rate MoM FEB 0.7% 0.1%
12:30 PM
CA
Retail Sales MoM JAN -0.3% -0.3% ®
12:30 PM
CA
Inflation Rate YoY FEB 1.5% 1.4%
01:10 PM
BR
Business Confidence MAR 61.9 64.5
01:30 PM
US
Fed Bostic Speech
01:45 PM
US
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash MAR 52.5 53
01:45 PM
US
Markit Services PMI Flash MAR 54.8 56.0
01:45 PM
US
Markit Composite PMI Flash MAR 54.3 55.5
02:00 PM
US
Existing Home Sales MoM FEB 11.8% -1.4% ®
02:00 PM
US
Existing Home Sales FEB 5.51M 4.93M ®
02:00 PM
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM JAN 1.2% 1.1%
06:00 PM
US
Monthly Budget Statement FEB $-234B $9B
EU
European Council Meeting
Sunday March 24 2019 Actual Previous
01:45 PM
US
Fed Evans Speech
Monday March 25 2019 Actual Previous
06:00 AM
US
Fed Evans Speech
07:00 AM
TR
Business Confidence MAR 102.1 97.2
07:00 AM
TR
Capacity Utilization MAR 74.3% 74%
08:00 AM
CH
Current Account Q4 CHF 15.2B CHF16.5B ®
09:00 AM
DE
Ifo Expectations MAR 95.6 94 ®