Week Ahead

Next week the US Q1 GDP report will be keenly watched, alongside durable goods orders, existing and new home sales. Elsewhere, other important releases include: UK CBI factory orders and public finances; Eurozone flash consumer confidence; Germany business and consumer morale; Japan unemployment rate, retail trade and industrial output; and Australia Q1 inflation rate. Central bank meetings in Japan, Canada, Indonesia and Turkey will also be in the spotlight.

Next week the US will be publishing the advance estimate of first-quarter GDP, with market forecasts pointing to an economic growth of 1.8 percent, which would be the weakest pace of expansion over the past two years. In addition, durable goods orders are likely to rebound following February's sharp decline, while both existing and new home sales are seen falling during March from February's 11-month highs. Other notable publications are Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment.

Elsewhere in America, the Bank of Canada will meet to set monetary policy, but no changes are expected. Other important data include Mexico unemployment and trade figures, and Brazil business confidence.

In the UK, investors will turn their attention to UK Finance mortgage approvals, alongside Nationwide housing prices and public sector net borrowing while the Confederation of British Industry is set to publish its gauges of factory orders, business confidence and distributive trades. 

Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone will release the first notification of general government deficit and debt for 2018 and April’s flash consumer confidence. Other important data include Germany, France and Turkey business and consumer morale, and Spain first-quarter unemployment rate. The National Bank of Ukraine is likely to cut interest rates by 0.50bps when it meets on Thursday, while central banks in Turkey, Russia and Sweden are expected to leave their monetary policy unchanged.

The Bank of Japan will deliver its latest monetary policy decision and release its quarterly outlook report, with markets anticipating no changes in borrowing costs. Elsewhere, investors will be waiting for unemployment rate, retail sales and the preliminary reading of industrial output. In Australia, analysts are eyeing the publication of first-quarter consumer and producer prices, which is expected to show a slowdown in consumer inflation to an over two-year low. Other key data for the Asia-Pacific region include: South Korea Q1 GDP growth and consumer confidence; New Zealand trade balance; Indonesia interest rate decision; Malaysia inflation; Taiwan and Singapore unemployment rates; and Thailand trade balance.


Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com
4/19/2019 1:26:55 PM



 


Friday April 19 2019 Actual Previous
08:00 AM
IT
Business Confidence APR 100.6 100.8
08:00 AM
IT
Consumer Confidence APR 110.5 111.2
12:30 PM
US
Building Permits MAR 1.269M 1.291M
12:30 PM
US
Building Permits MoM MAR -1.7% -2%
12:30 PM
US
Housing Starts MAR 1.139M 1.142M ®
12:30 PM
US
Housing Starts MoM MAR -0.3% -12% ®
Monday April 22 2019 Actual Previous
03:30 AM
TH
Balance of Trade MAR $2.0B $4.03B
07:00 AM
TR
Consumer Confidence APR 63.5 59.4
08:00 AM
TW
Unemployment Rate MAR 3.72% 3.71%
12:30 PM
US
Chicago Fed National Activity Index MAR -0.15 -0.31 ®
02:00 PM
US
Existing Home Sales MoM MAR -4.9% 11.2% ®
02:00 PM
US
Existing Home Sales MAR 5.21M 5.48M ®
05:35 PM
BR
Business Confidence APR 58.4 61.9
Tuesday April 23 2019 Actual Previous
04:30 AM
NL
Consumer Confidence APR -3 -4
09:00 AM
EA
Government Budget to GDP 2018 -0.5% -1%
09:00 AM
EA
Government Debt to GDP 2018 85.1% 87.1% ®
01:00 PM
MX
Unemployment Rate MAR 3.2% 3.3%
02:00 PM
EA
Consumer Confidence Flash APR -7.9 -7.2
02:00 PM
US
New Home Sales MoM MAR 4.5% 5.9% ®
02:00 PM
US
New Home Sales MAR 0.692M 0.662M