Week Ahead

Next week the second estimate of US Q1 GDP growth will be keenly watched, alongside personal income and outlays, PCE price index, wholesale inventories, and pending home sales; UK consumer morale and monetary indicators; Eurozone business survey; Germany consumer sentiment, retail trade, and inflation; China NBS PMIs; Japan consumer confidence and industrial output; and India, Canada and Brazil Q1 GDP growth rates. Central banks in Canada and South Korea will be deciding on monetary policy, but no changes are expected.

Next week the US will be publishing the second estimate of first-quarter GDP, alongside first estimate of corporate profits, with market forecasts suggesting economic growth was 3.1 percent, slightly weaker than initially thought. Other notable publications are personal income and outlays, PCE price index, wholesale inventories, pending home sales, Case-Shiller home prices, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, Chicago PMI, and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment.

Elsewhere in America, central banks in Canada and Colombia will be deciding on monetary policy, but no changes are expected; while the Bank of Mexico publishes its Inflation Report and monetary policy meeting minutes. Key economic data include: Canada Q1 GDP figures and current account; Brazil Q1 GDP growth and unemployment; and Mexico jobless rate.

In the UK, Gfk consumer confidence and monetary indicators will be in the spotlight. Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone business morale is likely to weaken further from April's near three-year low and Germany's Gfk consumer confidence is expected to remain unchanged for the second straight month heading into June. Other important releases include: Germany unemployment data, retail trade and preliminary inflation rate; Italy business and consumer morale; Switzerland Q1 GDP growth, KOF leading indicators and trade balance; and Turkey Q1 GDP growth and foreign trade.

In China, the NBS Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing PMIs will be highly anticipated, with consensus pointing to a contraction in manufacturing activity during May. Meanwhile Japan will be releasing unemployment rate, industrial output, retail sales, consumer confidence and housing starts. In Australia investors will be waiting for HIA new home sales, building permits, Q1 private capital expenditure and private sector credit. Across the Tasman Sea, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will publish its Financial Stability report. Other important releases for New Zealand include business confidence and building permits.

Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region, key data include: India Q1 GDP growth; South Korea interest rate decision, consumer and business confidence, industrial output, retail sales and trade figures; Hong Kong foreign trade; and Thailand industrial output and jobless rate.

Investors will also react to the results of the EU parliamentary elections, as well as to any further news on US-China trade talks.


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
5/24/2019 4:52:27 PM



 


Friday May 24 2019 Actual Previous
04:00 AM
MY
Inflation Rate YoY APR 0.2% 0.2%
07:00 AM
DE
Bundesbank Mauderer Speech
08:00 AM
TW
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q1 1.71% 1.8% ®
08:30 AM
GB
Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM APR -0.2% 1.4% ®
08:30 AM
GB
Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY APR 4.9% 6.3% ®
08:30 AM
GB
Retail Sales MoM APR 0% 1.2% ®
08:30 AM
GB
Retail Sales YoY APR 5.2% 6.7%
09:00 AM
DE
Bundesbank Buch Speech
09:55 AM
GB
BoE Woods Speech
10:00 AM
GB
CBI Distributive Trades MAY -27 13
12:30 PM
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM APR 0% -0.5% ®
12:30 PM
US
Durable Goods Orders MoM APR -2.1% 1.7% ®
01:00 PM
MX
Balance of Trade APR $1.37B $1.486B ®
01:00 PM
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q1 -0.2% 0.0% ®
01:00 PM
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q1 1.2% 1.7%
01:00 PM
RU
Unemployment Rate APR 4.7% 4.7%
EU
European Parliament Elections
JP
US-Japan Trade Talks
Saturday May 25 2019 Actual Previous
EU
European Parliament Elections
Sunday May 26 2019 Actual Previous
BE
Parliamentary Elections
EU
European Parliament Elections
Monday May 27 2019 Actual Previous
03:00 AM
JP
BoJ Gov Kuroda Speech
08:00 AM
PL
Unemployment Rate APR 5.6% 5.9%
08:40 AM
EA
ECB Cœuré Speech
10:00 AM
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims APR -9.7K -6.1K
11:00 AM
DE
Bundesbank Buch Speech
09:00 PM
KR
Consumer Confidence MAY 97.9 101.6 ®
Tuesday May 28 2019 Actual Previous
05:45 AM