Week Ahead

Next week important releases include US jobs report, ISM PMIs, trade balance, construction spending, and factory orders; UK final Q2 GDP growth and Markit PMIs; Eurozone inflation rate, retail trade and unemployment; China NBS PMIs and Caixin Manufacturing PMI; Japan Tankan business survey, consumer confidence and industrial output; Australia trade balance and retail sales; India Manufacturing PMI; and South Korea trade balance and inflation. Central banks in Australia and India will be deciding on monetary policy.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 9/27/2019 3:01:38 PM
The US will be publishing its highly anticipated jobs report, with market forecasts pointing to a payroll increase of 162 thousand in September, after a smaller-than-expected 130 thousand rise last month. In addition, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is likely to point to stagnation in manufacturing activity following a contraction in August; while the Non-Manufacturing PMI will probably ease from the previous month. Other notable publications are foreign trade balance, construction spending, factory orders, ADP employment change, Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, total vehicle sales, and final Markit PMIs.

Elsewhere in America, key economic data to follow include Canada monthly GDP, trade balance and Ivey PMI; Mexico business and consumer confidence; and Brazil industrial production and trade balance.

The UK will publish the final estimate of second-quarter GDP growth and business investment, alongside monetary indicators, current account and new car sales. Figures from the ONS are expected to confirm the Britain’s economy contracted for the first time in nearly seven years. Also, Markit Economics data will provide an update on manufacturing, services and construction sectors during September.

Elsewhere in Europe, preliminary inflation rates for the Eurozone, Germany, Italy and Spain will be in the spotlight, as well as retail trade and unemployment data for the Eurozone and Germany, and flash PMI figures for Italy and Spain. Markets will also focus on: Turkey consumer price data, trade balance and Manufacturing PMI; Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators, inflation and retail sales; and Poland interest rate decision.

In China, the NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs will probably suggest there was a further contraction in the manufacturing sector and a pick up in non-manufacturing expansion during September. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI is set to point to modest growth in the sector.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan will publish the summary of opinions from board members. The country will also provide updated figures for Tankan business survey, consumer confidence, industrial output, retail sales, housing starts, unemployment rate. The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to cut interest rates by 25bps for the third time this year, bringing borrowing costs to a new record low. On the economic data front, important releases include trade figures, retail sales, private sector credit, building permits, AIG manufacturing and services indexes and HIA new home sales. The Reserve Bank of India will also be deciding on monetary policy.

Other key highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: India Manufacturing PMI; South Korea trade figures, consumer inflation, industrial production, retail sales and business sentiment; New Zealand building permits; Vietnam third-quarter GDP growth; Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines inflation rates; and Malaysia foreign trade.

Chinese markets will be closed from October 1st to 7th to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China; while in Hong Kong markets will be closed on October 1st. Also, stock markets in India and Germany will be closed on October 2nd for Mahatma Gandhi's Birthday and National Day respectively.





 


Friday September 27 2019 Actual Previous
06:45 AM
FR
Inflation Rate YoY Prel SEP 0.9% 1.0%
07:00 AM
GB
BoE Saunders Speech
07:15 AM
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
08:00 AM
IT
Business Confidence SEP 98.8 99.6 ®
08:00 AM
IT
Consumer Confidence SEP 112.2 111.9
09:00 AM
EA
Business Confidence SEP -0.22 0.12 ®
09:00 AM
EA
Consumer Confidence Final SEP -6.5 -7.1
09:00 AM
EA
Economic Sentiment SEP 101.7 103.1
09:10 AM
DE
Bundesbank Weidmann Speech
10:45 AM
ES
Business Confidence SEP -5.3 1.3 ®
11:00 AM
MX
Balance of Trade AUG $0.775B $-1.117B
12:00 PM
BR
Unemployment Rate AUG 11.8% 11.8%
12:30 PM
EA
ECB Lane Speech
12:30 PM
US
Durable Goods Orders MoM AUG 0.2% 2% ®
12:30 PM
US
Personal Income MoM AUG 0.4% 0.1%
12:30 PM
US
Personal Spending MoM AUG 0.1% 0.5% ®
12:30 PM
US
PCE Price Index MoM AUG 0% 0.2%
12:30 PM
US
PCE Price Index YoY AUG 1.4% 1.4%
12:30 PM
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM AUG 0.5% -0.5% ®
12:30 PM
US
Fed Quarles Speech
01:00 PM
BR
Consumer Confidence Q3 47.3 47
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final SEP 93.2 89.8
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations Final SEP 2.8% 2.7%
02:00 PM
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final SEP 2.4% 2.6%
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Current Conditions Final SEP 108.5 105.3
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations Final SEP 83.4 79.9
04:00 PM
US
Fed Harker Speech
Saturday September 28 2019 Actual Previous
02:00 AM
VN
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 7.31% 6.73% ®
Sunday September 29 2019 Actual Previous
11:50 PM
JP
Industrial Production MoM Prel AUG -1.2% 1.3%
11:50 PM
JP
BoJ Summary of Opinions
11:50 PM
JP
Retail Sales YoY AUG 2% -2% ®
Monday September 30 2019 Actual Previous
01:00 AM
CN
NBS Manufacturing PMI SEP 49.8 49.5
01:00 AM
CN
Non Manufacturing PMI SEP 53.7 53.8
01:45 AM
CN
Caixin Manufacturing PMI SEP 51.4 50.4
05:00 AM
JP
Housing Starts YoY AUG -7.1% -4.1%
06:00 AM
DE
Retail Sales MoM AUG 0.5% -0.8% ®
06:00 AM
DE
Retail Sales YoY AUG 3.2% 5.2% ®
06:00 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate Harmonised AUG 3.1% 3.1% ®
07:00 AM
ES
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2 2% 2.2% ®
07:00 AM
ES
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 0.4% 0.5% ®
07:00 AM
CH
KOF Leading Indicators SEP 93.2 95.5 ®
07:00 AM
TR
Balance of Trade AUG $-2.5B $-3.20B ®
07:55 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate SEP 5% 5%
07:55 AM
DE
Unemployment Change SEP -10K 2K ®
08:00 AM
IT
Unemployment Rate AUG 9.5% 9.8% ®
08:30 AM
GB
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2 1.3% 2.1% ®
08:30 AM
GB
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 -0.2% 0.6% ®
08:30 AM
GB
Business Investment QoQ Final Q2 -0.4% 0.8% ®
08:30 AM
GB
Business Investment YoY Final Q2 -1.4% -1.6% ®
08:30 AM
GB
Mortgage Approvals AUG 65.55K 67.01K ®
08:30 AM
GB
BoE Consumer Credit AUG £0.901B £1.007B ®
08:30 AM
GB
Current Account Q2 £-25.2B £-33.1B ®
08:30 AM
GB
Mortgage Lending AUG £3.85B £4.52B ®
09:00 AM
EA
Unemployment Rate AUG 7.4% 7.5%
09:00 AM