Week Ahead

Meeting minutes from the Fed and ECB will be keenly watched next week for further clues on the next monetary policy steps. Other important releases include: US inflation rate and the preliminary reading of Michigan's consumer sentiment; UK monthly GDP figures and trade balance; Germany factory orders, industrial activity and foreign trade; China Caixin Services PMI; Japan machinery orders and producer prices; Australia business and consumer morale; and India manufacturing output. Investors will also react to US-China trade talks.

In the US, investors will be waiting for the FOMC minutes due Wednesday for further clarification on the monetary policy path. The Federal Reserve slashed interest rates for a second time this year during its September meeting as inflation remains subdued amid slowing economic growth and ongoing trade tensions with China. Regarding the US economic calendar, the consumer price inflation rate will probably pick up slightly to 1.8 percent in September, while the preliminary reading of Michigan's consumer sentiment should point to a deterioration in morale during October. Other notable publications are producer and foreign trade prices; JOLTs job openings; IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism; the government's budget statement; and the final reading of wholesale inventories.

Investors will also be expecting any further developments on tariffs as China's top negotiators head to Washington next week to continue trade talks.

Elsewhere in America, important releases include Canada employment and housing data; Mexico inflation, industrial production and gross fixed investment; and Brazil inflation and retail sales. Meanwhile, policymakers in Peru will be deciding on interest rates on Thursday and the central bank of Mexico will be publishing monetary policy minutes of its September meeting.

In the UK investors will turn their attention to monthly GDP figures, alongside industrial production, construction output and trade balance. Figures from the ONS are expected to show another month of annual contraction in the industry sector in August, led by a fifth month of decline in manufacturing output.

Elsewhere in Europe, the ECB will publish the account of September's policy meeting. Key economic data include: Germany industrial production, factory orders and foreign trade; France and Italy industrial output; Sweden and Norway inflation rates; Spain consumer confidence; and Switzerland unemployment rate.

In China, Caixin PMIs will provide an update on services sector activity during September. Meanwhile in Japan, investors will be waiting for August’s preliminary estimate of leading economic index, machinery orders, producer prices, Eco Watchers Survey and current account. The Reserve Bank of Australia will publish its Financial Stability Review. The country will also be releasing NAB Business Confidence, Westpac Consumer Confidence, AIG construction index, ANZ job advertisements and home loans. Other key data for the Asia-Pacific region include: India industrial output; Singapore Q3 GDP growth; New Zealand business NZ PMI, electronic retail card spending and food inflation; and the Philippines trade balance.

Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
10/4/2019 3:20:12 PM


Friday October 04 2019 Actual Previous
12:00 AM
Total Vehicle Sales SEP 17.2M 17.0M
01:00 AM
Inflation Rate YoY SEP 0.9% 1.7%
01:30 AM
Retail Sales MoM AUG 0.4% 0% ®
03:00 AM
HIA New Home Sales MoM AUG 7.3% -7.2%
03:20 AM
RBA Ellis Speech
04:00 AM
Balance of Trade AUG MYR10.9B MYR14.3B
06:15 AM
RBI Interest Rate Decision 5.15% 5.40%
07:30 AM
Construction PMI SEP 50.1 46.3
11:25 AM
ECB Guindos Speech
12:30 PM
Balance of Trade AUG C$-0.96B C$-1.38B ®
12:30 PM
Balance of Trade AUG $-54.9B $-54B
12:30 PM
Non Farm Payrolls SEP 136K 168K ®
12:30 PM
Unemployment Rate SEP 3.5% 3.7%
12:30 PM
Average Hourly Earnings MoM SEP 0% 0.4%
01:10 PM
Inflation Rate YoY SEP 4% 4.3%
02:00 PM
Ivey PMI s.a SEP 48.7 60.6
02:25 PM
Fed Bostic Speech
04:45 PM
Fed Kashkari Speech
06:00 PM
Fed Chair Powell Speech
06:10 PM
Fed Brainard Speech
08:00 PM
Fed Quarles Speech
08:00 PM
Fed Clarida Speech
Sunday October 06 2019 Actual Previous
08:45 PM
Fed George Speech
Monday October 07 2019 Actual Previous