Week Ahead

The Fed and ECB will be deciding on monetary policy in the coming week, but no changes are expected. Elsewhere, the UK general election and EU leaders Summit will be in the spotlight, alongside: US inflation rate and retail trade; UK monthly GDP figures, industrial production and trade balance; Eurozone industrial output; Germany investor morale and foreign trade; China trade balance, consumer and producer prices; Japan final Q3 GDP, Tankan business survey and machinery orders; Australia business and consumer morale; and India industrial output.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 12/6/2019 6:34:37 PM
The US Federal Reserve will probably hold interest rates at current levels when it meets for the last time in 2019 on Wednesday, with investor focus turning to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference and the FOMC economic projections. Regarding the US economic calendar, the consumer price inflation rate will probably pick up to a seven-month high of 2.0 percent in November, while retail sales should continue to grow at a solid pace. Other notable publications are producer and foreign trade prices, business inventories, the government's budget statement, and the final readings of third-quarter nonfarm productivity and labor costs.

Other important reports to follow in America include Canada housing starts and building permits; Mexico inflation and industrial production; and Brazil economic activity and retail sales. Also, central banks in Brazil and Peru will be deciding on monetary policy.

In the UK, all eyes will be on the outcome of the December 12th general election, with recent opinion polls suggesting the ruling Conservative party will win a comfortable majority. Politics aside, the ONS will be publishing monthly GDP figures, alongside industrial production, construction output and trade balance while the Bank of England will release its Financial Stability Report.

Elsewhere in Europe, ECB President Christine Lagarde will chair her first monetary policy meeting on Thursday, with markets anticipating no changes in policy guidance. Meanwhile, central banks in Turkey and Russia are expected to slash interest rates, while the Swiss National Bank is seen ending the year with no changes in monetary policy. On the economic data front, the Eurozone industrial production will be in the spotlight, alongside Germany investor morale, foreign trade, current account and wholesale prices; France and Italy industrial output; Ireland third-quarter GDP data; Sweden inflation rate; Switzerland unemployment rate and producer and import prices; and Turkey industrial activity and current account.

China's trade balance will be keenly watched, with markets forecasting a 1 percent rise in exports and a 1.8 fall in imports, amid ongoing trade tensions with the US. The country will also be publishing consumer and producer prices, foreign direct investment and monetary indicators. Inflation is likely to hit a new eight-year high in November, while producer prices will probably continue to fall.

Meanwhile in Japan, investors will focus on the final estimate of third-quarter GDP growth, with forecasts pointing to an upward revision to the preliminary reading. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's quarterly tankan business sentiment survey is expected to show a further deterioration in big manufacturers’ confidence. Other important releases include current account, Eco Watchers Survey and machinery orders. In Australia key data to follow include NAB business confidence, Westpac consumer confidence, and house price index. In India, investors will turn their attention to consumer and wholesale prices, industrial output, and trade balance.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: New Zealand manufacturing sales and business NZ PMI; Taiwan trade balance; South Korea jobless rate; Malaysia industrial production; Singapore retail sales and unemployment; and the Philippines interest rate decision and trade balance.





 


Friday December 06 2019 Actual Previous
07:00 AM
DE
Industrial Production MoM OCT -1.7% -0.6%
07:45 AM
FR
Balance of Trade OCT €-4.73B €-5.42B ®
08:30 AM
GB
Halifax House Price Index MoM NOV 1% -0.1%
08:30 AM
GB
Halifax House Price Index YoY NOV 2.1% 0.9%
09:00 AM
IT
Retail Sales MoM OCT -0.2% 0.6% ®
12:00 PM
BR
Inflation Rate YoY NOV 3.27% 2.54%
01:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank Buch Speech
01:00 PM
RU
Foreign Exchange Reserves NOV $542.0B $540.9B
01:00 PM
RU
Inflation Rate YoY NOV 3.5% 3.8%
01:30 PM
CA
Employment Change NOV -71.2K -1.8K
01:30 PM
CA
Full Time Employment Chg NOV -38.4K -16.1K
01:30 PM
CA
Participation Rate NOV 65.6% 65.7%
01:30 PM
CA
Part Time Employment Chg NOV -32.8K 14.3K
01:30 PM
CA
Unemployment Rate NOV 5.9% 5.5%
01:30 PM
US
Non Farm Payrolls NOV 266K 156K ®
01:30 PM
US
Unemployment Rate NOV 3.5% 3.6%
03:00 PM
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM OCT 0.1% -0.7% ®
03:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel DEC 88.9 87.3
03:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel DEC 99.2 96.8
03:00 PM
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel DEC 2.3% 2.5%
03:00 PM
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel DEC 2.4% 2.5%
03:00 PM
US
Michigan Current Conditions Prel DEC 115.2 111.6
Sunday December 08 2019 Actual Previous
03:00 AM
CN
Balance of Trade NOV $38.73B $43.02B
03:00 AM
CN
Exports YoY NOV -1.1% -0.9%
03:00 AM
CN
Imports YoY NOV 0.3% -6.5%
11:50 PM
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3 0.4% 0.5% ®
11:50 PM
JP
Current Account OCT ¥1816.8B ¥1612.9B
11:50 PM
JP
GDP Growth Annualized Final Q3 1.8% 2% ®
Monday December 09 2019 Actual Previous
06:45 AM
CH
Unemployment Rate NOV 2.3% 2.2%
07:00 AM
DE
Balance of Trade OCT €21.5B €21.2B ®
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
12:00 PM
MX
Inflation Rate YoY NOV 2.97% 3.02%
01:15 PM
CA
Housing Starts NOV 201.3K 200.7K ®
10:05 PM
AU
RBA Gov Lowe Speech
Tuesday December 10 2019 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
AU
NAB Business Confidence NOV 0 2
01:30 AM
CN
Inflation Rate YoY NOV 4.5% 3.8%
01:30 AM
CN
Inflation Rate MoM NOV 0.4% 0.9%
01:30 AM
CN
PPI YoY NOV -1.4% -1.6%
02:45 AM
AU
RBA Bullock Speech
07:45 AM
FR
Industrial Production MoM OCT 0.4% 0.4% ®
09:00 AM
IT
Industrial Production MoM OCT -0.3% -0.4%
09:30 AM
GB
Balance of Trade OCT £-5.19B £-1.92B ®
09:30 AM
GB
Construction Output YoY OCT -2.1% 0.5%
09:30 AM
GB
Industrial Production YoY OCT -1.3% -1.4%
09:30 AM
GB
Industrial Production MoM OCT 0.1% -0.3%
09:30 AM
GB
GDP 3-Month Avg OCT 0% 0.3%
09:30 AM
GB
Manufacturing Production YoY OCT -1.2% -1.8%
10:00 AM
EA
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index DEC 11.2 -1
10:00 AM
DE
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index DEC 10.7 -2.1
01:30 PM
US
Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final Q3 2.5% 2.4%
01:30 PM
US
Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Final Q3 -0.2% 2.5%
09:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change DEC/06 1.41M -3.72M
11:00 PM
KR
Unemployment Rate NOV 3.6% 3.5%
11:30 PM
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index DEC 95.1 97.0
11:30 PM
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change DEC -1.9% 4.5%
Wednesday December 11 2019 Actual Previous
08:00 AM
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY NOV 3.6% 3.7%
08:30 AM
SE
CPIF YoY NOV 1.7% 1.5%
08:30 AM
SE
Inflation Rate MoM NOV 0.1% 0%
11:00 AM
ZA
Retail Sales YoY OCT 0.3% 0.4% ®
12:00 PM
BR
Retail Sales MoM OCT 0.1% 0.8% ®
01:30 PM
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY NOV 2.3% 2.3%
01:30 PM
US
Inflation Rate YoY NOV 2.1% 1.8%
01:30 PM
US
Core Inflation Rate MoM NOV 0.2% 0.2%
01:30 PM
US
Inflation Rate MoM NOV 0.3% 0.4%
03:30 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 06/DEC 0.822M -4.856M
03:30 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 06/DEC 5.405M 3.385M
07:00 PM
US
Fed Interest Rate Decision 1.75% 1.75%
07:00 PM
US
FOMC Economic Projections
07:00 PM
US
Monthly Budget Statement NOV $-209B $-134B
07:30 PM
US
Fed Press Conference
09:00 PM
BR
Interest Rate Decision 4.5% 5%
11:50 PM
JP
Machinery Orders YoY OCT -6.1% 5.1%
11:50 PM
JP
Machinery Orders MoM OCT -6% -2.9%
SA
OPEC Monthly Report
Thursday December 12 2019 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
AU
RBA Bulletin
01:30 AM
JP
BoJ Amamiya Speech
02:30 AM
SG
Unemployment Rate Final Q3 2.3% 2.2%
06:45 AM
CH
SECO Economic Forecasts
07:00 AM
DE
Inflation Rate YoY Final NOV 1.1% 1.1%
07:45 AM
FR
Inflation Rate YoY Final NOV 1.0% 0.8%
08:00 AM
PH
Interest Rate Decision 4% 4%
08:30 AM
SE
Unemployment Rate NOV 6.8% 6.0%
08:30 AM
CH
SNB Press Conference
08:30 AM
CH
SNB Interest Rate Decison -0.75% -0.75%
09:00 AM
FR
IEA Oil Market Report
10:00 AM
EA
Industrial Production YoY OCT -2.2% -1.8% ®
10:00 AM
EA
Industrial Production MoM OCT -0.5% -0.1% ®