Week Ahead

With Brexit and US-China trade deal uncertainty removed, the markets attention will turn to data. In the US, the most important releases include: final Q3 GDP growth, personal income and spending and flash Markit PMIs and housing data. Elsewhere, the PBoC, BoE and BoJ will provide an update on the course of monetary policy. Also, it would be interesting to follow flash PMI surveys for the UK, Eurozone, Japan and Australia. Other key data include: UK final Q3 GDP, consumer confidence, unemployment, inflation and retail trade; the Eurozone consumer morale; China's industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment; Japan trade balance and inflation; and Australia employment figures.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 12/14/2019 4:06:47 PM
On Friday, the US will be publishing the final estimate of third-quarter GDP growth, with market forecasts pointing to 2.1 percent expansion, up from the previous period's 2.0 percent, boosted by household consumption, government spending and private inventories. Other relases include: personal income and outlays, PCE price index, industrial production, flash Markit PMIs, housing starts and building permits, existing home sales, JOLTs job openings, third-quarter current account, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, NAHB Housing Market Index, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, overall net capital flows, and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment.

Elsewhere in America, central banks in Mexico, Colombia and Paraguay will provide an update on monetary policy. Alsokey releases to follow include: Canada inflation rate, retail sales, ADP employment change and new housing prices; Mexico retail trade; Brazil business and consumer sentiment; and Argentina third-quarter GDP and unemployment.

In the UK, the Bank of England is likely to hold interest rates at current levels when it meets on Thursday, as Brexit approaches. On the economic data front, final estimates of third-quarter GDP will probably confirm the economy returned to growth on the back of service and construction output, after contracting in the April-June period. Other key data include: Gfk consumer confidence, flash Markit PMIs, unemployment rate and wage data, inflation, retail trade, third-quarter current account, and CBI gauges for factory orders and retail trade.

Elsewhere in Europe, flash Markit PMIs for the Eurozone, Germany and France will be in the spotlight, with the bloc’s manufacturing sector set to contract at the softest pace since June while services activity is seen expanding slightly faster. Investors will also keep an eye on the Eurozone flash consumer confidence, labor cost index, trade balance and construction output; Germany and Italy business and consumer morale; France industry sentiment and household consumption; Switzerland foreign trade and current account; and Turkey consumer survey and unemployment rate. Also, central banks in Sweden and Norway will decide on interest rates.

In China, latest loan prime rate publication will be keenly watched, after the People's Bank of China set rates at 4.15 percent last month. Investors will also focus on industrial output, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and house price index. The Bank of Japan will hold its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, but no changes are expected. Key data to watch for are flash Jibun Bank PMIs, trade balance and consumer inflation.

The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of India will be publishing the minutes of the last monetary policy meetings. Other key releases for Australia include employment figures, flash CommBank PMIs, home loans, and HIA new home sales. Investors in New Zealand will be waiting for third-quarter GDP growth, trade balance and current account.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: India wholesale prices; Indonesia and Thailand foreign trade; Singapore non-oil exports; Hong Kong and Taiwan unemployment; and Malaysia inflation. Monetary policy meetings also take place in Thailand, Indonesia and Taiwan.





 


Friday December 13 2019 Actual Previous
04:00 AM
MY
Unemployment Rate OCT 3.2% 3.3%
04:30 AM
JP
Industrial Production MoM Final OCT -4.5% 1.7%
07:00 AM
CN
FDI (YTD) YoY NOV 6.0% 6.6%
07:00 AM
DE
Wholesale Prices MoM NOV -0.1% -0.1%
07:00 AM
DE
Wholesale Prices YoY NOV -2.5% -2.3%
07:30 AM
DE
Bundesbank Semi-Annual Forecasts
08:00 AM
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
10:30 AM
RU
Interest Rate Decision 6.25% 6.5%
11:00 AM
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 5% 4.9% ®
11:00 AM
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q3 1.7% -0.1% ®
12:00 PM
RU
Monetary Policy Report
12:30 PM
IN
Balance of Trade NOV $-12.12B $-11.01B
01:30 PM
US
Retail Sales MoM NOV 0.2% 0.4% ®
01:30 PM
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM NOV 0.1% 0.3% ®
01:30 PM
US
Export Prices YoY NOV -1.3% -2.2%
01:30 PM
US
Export Prices MoM NOV 0.2% -0.1%
01:30 PM
US
Import Prices YoY NOV -1.3% -3%
01:30 PM
US
Import Prices MoM NOV 0.2% -0.5%
03:00 PM
US
Business Inventories MoM OCT 0.2% -0.1% ®
05:00 PM
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
EA
Euro Summit
EU
European Council Meeting
Sunday December 15 2019 Actual Previous
10:00 PM
AU
CommBank Manufacturing PMI Flash DEC 49.4 49.9
10:00 PM
AU
CommBank Services PMI Flash DEC 49.5 49.7
Monday December 16 2019 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash DEC 48.8 48.9
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI Flash DEC 50.6 50.3
01:30 AM
CN
House Price Index YoY NOV 7.1% 7.8%
02:00 AM
CN
Industrial Production YoY NOV 6.2% 4.7%
02:00 AM
CN
Retail Sales YoY NOV 8% 7.2%
02:00 AM
CN
Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY NOV 5.2% 5.2%
04:00 AM
ID
Balance of Trade NOV $-1.33B $0.17B ®
07:00 AM
TR
Unemployment Rate SEP 13.8% 14%
08:15 AM
FR
Markit Services PMI Flash DEC 52.4 52.2
08:15 AM
FR
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash DEC 50.3 51.7
08:30 AM
DE
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash DEC 43.4 44.1
08:30 AM
DE
Markit Services PMI Flash DEC 52.0 51.7
09:00 AM
EA
Markit Services PMI Flash DEC 52.4 51.9
09:00 AM
EA
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash DEC 45.9 46.9
09:00 AM
IT
Inflation Rate YoY Final NOV 0.2% 0.2%
09:30 AM
GB
Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash DEC 47.4 48.9
09:30 AM
GB
Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Flash DEC 49 49.3
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
12:30 PM
EA
ECB Lane Speech
01:00 PM
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
01:30 PM
US
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index DEC 3.50 2.9
02:45 PM
US
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash DEC 52.5 52.6
02:45 PM
US
Markit Services PMI Flash DEC 52.2 51.6
02:45 PM
US
Markit Composite PMI Flash DEC 52.2 52.0
03:00 PM
US
NAHB Housing Market Index DEC 76 71 ®
05:00 PM
GB
BoE Stress Test Results
05:00 PM
GB
BoE Systemic Risk Survey Results
05:00 PM
GB
BoE Financial Stability Report
05:00 PM
GB
BoE FPC Record
05:30 PM
GB
BoE Press Conference
09:00 PM
US
Overall Net Capital Flows OCT $-48.3B $-38.1B ®
09:00 PM
US
Foreign Bond Investment OCT $-16.8B $-34.3B
09:00 PM
US
Net Long-Term Tic Flows OCT $32.5B $49.5B
Tuesday December 17 2019 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
AU
Home Loans MoM OCT 0.6% -3% ®
12:30 AM
AU
RBA Meeting Minutes
12:30 AM
AU
Investment Lending for Homes OCT 2% 1.1%
08:00 AM
NG
Inflation Rate YoY NOV 11.85% 11.61%
08:30 AM
HK
Unemployment Rate NOV 3.2% 3.1%
09:00 AM
IT
Balance of Trade OCT €8.057B €2.686B ®
09:30 AM
GB
Claimant Count Change NOV 28.8K 26.4K ®
09:30 AM
GB
Unemployment Rate OCT 3.8% 3.8%
09:30 AM
GB
Average Earnings excl. Bonus OCT 3.5% 3.6%
09:30 AM
GB
Average Earnings incl. Bonus OCT 3.2% 3.7% ®
09:30 AM
GB
Employment Change SEP 24K -58K
09:30 AM
GB
BoE FPC Minutes
10:00 AM
EA
Balance of Trade OCT €28B €18.7B
11:00 AM
BR
BCB Copom Meeting Minutes
11:00 AM
GB
CBI Industrial Trends Orders DEC -28 -26
01:00 PM
US
Fed Kaplan Speech
01:30 PM
EA
ECB Lane Speech
01:30 PM
US
Housing Starts MoM NOV 3.2% 4.5% ®
01:30 PM
US
Housing Starts NOV 1.365M 1.323M ®
01:30 PM
US
Building Permits MoM NOV 1.4% 5%
01:30 PM
US
Building Permits NOV 1.482M 1.461M