Week Ahead

It would be another short holiday week. In the US, the most important release would be Fed meeting minutes followed by ISM Manufacturing PMI, construction spending, goods trade balance and wholesale inventories. Elsewhere, Markit Manufacturing PMI surveys will be in the spotlight, alongside UK monetary indicators and housing prices; and China NBS PMIs.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 12/28/2019 5:16:37 PM
In the US, investors will be waiting for the FOMC minutes due Friday for further clarification on the next monetary policy steps. The Federal Reserve held the target range for its federal funds rate at 1.5-1.75 percent during its December meeting, and signaled there would be no changes in interest rates until at least 2021. Regarding the economic calendar, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is likely to point to another month of contraction in manufacturing activity during December; while construction spending is seen rebounding in November, following October's sharp decline. Other notable publications are pending home sales, Case-Shiller home prices, Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, the advance estimates of goods trade balance and wholesale inventories, and the final reading of Markit Manufacturing PMI.

Other key data to watch for in America include Canada Markit Manufacturing PMI, Brazil trade balance, and Mexico business morale. The central bank of Mexico is also due to publish its monetary policy meeting minutes.

In the UK, a final reading of Markit Manufacturing PMI is expected to confirm the sector remained in negative territory; while a preliminary reading for Construction PMI should point to the softest rate of contraction in activity since May. The Bank of England will publish its monetary indicators while the UK Finance will release mortgage applications for November. December's Nationwide housing prices will also be in the spotlight.

Elsewhere in Europe, investors will keep an eye on final Markit Manufacturing PMI surveys for the Eurozone, Germany and France, while preliminary readings for Spain and Italy will also be followed, as well as inflation rates for Germany, Spain, France and Italy. Other key economic data include: Germany unemployment rate; Spain final Q3 GDP growth; Switzerland KOF leading indicators and Manufacturing PMI; and Turkey consumer price inflation and trade balance. 

In China, the NBS will be publishing its Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs, with forecasts pointing to weak factory activity growth during December, and a steep slowdown in service expansion. Meanwhile, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain close to a near three-year high reached in November. In South Korea, important releases include inflation, trade balance, business confidence, industrial production, retail sales, and Markit Manufacturing PMI.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: Australia final CommBank Manufacturing PMI; India current account, infrastructure output and Markit Manufacturing PMI; Hong Kong trade balance and retail trade; Singapore Q4 GDP figures; Indonesia and Thailand inflation rates.

Stock markets across the US, Europe and Asia will be closed on Wednesday for New Year's Day, and will reopen on Thursday to start another calendar year. In addition, markets in Germany, Italy, Brazil and Japan will be closed on Tuesday while the UK trading ends early to celebrate New Year's Eve.





 


Friday December 27 2019 Actual Previous
06:30 AM
VN
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q4 6.97% 7.48% ®
09:00 AM
EA
ECB Economic Bulletin
12:00 PM
BR
Unemployment Rate NOV 11.2% 11.6%
12:00 PM
MX
Balance of Trade NOV $0.79B $-0.726B
12:00 PM
ZA
Balance of Trade NOV ZAR6.1B ZAR2.75B ®
04:00 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 20/DEC -5.474M -1.085M
04:00 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 20/DEC 1.963M 2.529M
Monday December 30 2019 Actual Previous
06:00 AM
RU
Markit Manufacturing PMI DEC 47.5 45.6
08:00 AM
ES
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q3 1.9% 2%
08:00 AM
ES
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3 0.4% 0.4%
08:00 AM
CH
KOF Leading Indicators DEC 96.4 92.6 ®
09:30 AM
GB
UK Finance Mortgage Approvals NOV 43.7K 41.3K ®
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
01:30 PM
US
Goods Trade Balance Adv NOV $-63.19B $-66.8B
01:30 PM
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv NOV 0% 0% ®
02:45 PM
US
Chicago PMI DEC 48.9 46.3
03:00 PM
US
Pending Home Sales YoY NOV 7.4% 4.9% ®
03:30 PM
US
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index DEC -3.2 -1.3
09:00 PM
KR
Business Confidence DEC 74 74
11:00 PM
KR
Inflation Rate YoY DEC 0.7% 0.2%
Tuesday December 31 2019 Actual Previous
01:00 AM
CN
NBS Manufacturing PMI DEC 50.2 50.2
01:00 AM
CN
Non Manufacturing PMI DEC 53.5 54.4
07:00 AM
TR
Balance of Trade NOV $-2.23B $-1.82B ®
11:00 AM
IL
GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2st Est Q3 1.0% 0.2%
11:00 AM
SA
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 -0.5% 0.5%
11:30 AM
IN
Current Account Q3 $-6.3B $-14.2B ®
12:00 PM
RU
Inflation Rate YoY Prel DEC 3.0% 3.5%
02:00 PM
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM OCT 0.1% 0.1%
02:00 PM
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY OCT 2.2% 2.1%
11:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change DEC/27 -7.8M -7.9M
Wednesday January 01 2020 Actual Previous
12:00 AM
KR
Exports YoY DEC -5.2% -14.4% ®
12:00 AM
KR
Balance of Trade DEC $2.02B $3.34B ®
10:00 PM
AU
CommBank Manufacturing PMI Final DEC 49.2 49.9
Thursday January 02 2020 Actual Previous
12:00 AM
SG
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv Q4 0.8% 0.7% ®
12:00 AM
SG
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q4 0.1% 2.4% ®
12:30 AM
KR
Markit Manufacturing PMI DEC 50.1 49.4
01:45 AM
CN
Caixin Manufacturing PMI DEC 51.5 51.8
04:00 AM
ID
Inflation Rate YoY DEC 2.72% 3.0%
05:00 AM
IN
Markit Manufacturing PMI DEC 52.7 51.2
08:15 AM
ES
Markit Manufacturing PMI DEC 47.4 47.5
08:45 AM
IT
Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI DEC 46.2 47.6
08:50 AM
FR
Markit Manufacturing PMI Final DEC 50.4 51.7
08:55 AM
DE
Markit Manufacturing PMI Final DEC 43.7 44.1
09:00 AM
EA
Markit Manufacturing PMI Final DEC 46.3 46.9
09:30 AM
GB
Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final DEC 47.5 48.9
01:30 PM
US
Initial Jobless Claims 28/DEC 222K 224K ®
02:30 PM
CA
Markit Manufacturing PMI DEC 50.4 51.4
02:45 PM
US
Markit Manufacturing PMI Final DEC 52.4 52.6
03:00 PM
MX
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
06:00 PM
BR
Balance of Trade DEC $5.6B $3.43B ®
Friday January 03 2020 Actual Previous
07:00 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate Harmonised NOV 3.1% 3.1%
07:00 AM
NO
Unemployment Rate OCT 3.8% 3.9%
07:00 AM
TR
Inflation Rate YoY DEC 11.84% 10.56%
07:00 AM
GB
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY DEC 1.4% 0.8%
07:00 AM
GB
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM DEC 0.1% 0.5%
07:45 AM
FR
Inflation Rate YoY Prel DEC 1.4% 1.0%
08:00 AM
ES
Unemployment Change DEC -34.6K 20.5K
08:30 AM
CH
procure.ch Manufacturing PMI DEC 50.2 48.8
08:55 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate DEC 5% 5%
08:55 AM
DE
Unemployment Change DEC 8K -14K ®
09:30 AM
GB
Mortgage Approvals NOV 64.99K 64.66K ®
09:30 AM
GB
Construction PMI DEC 44.4 45.3
09:30 AM
GB
BoE Consumer Credit NOV £0.563B £1.339B ®
09:30 AM
GB
Mortgage Lending NOV £4.05B £4.31B ®
12:25 PM
MX
Business Confidence DEC 49.5 49.9
01:00 PM
DE
Inflation Rate YoY Prel DEC 1.5% 1.1%
03:00 PM
US
ISM Manufacturing New Orders DEC 46.8 47.2
03:00 PM
US
ISM Manufacturing Prices DEC 51.7 46.7
03:00 PM
US
ISM Manufacturing Employment DEC 45.1 46.6
03:00 PM
US
ISM Manufacturing PMI DEC 47.2 48.1
03:00 PM
US
Construction Spending MoM NOV 0.6% 0.1% ®
04:00 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 27/DEC -11.463M -5.474M
04:00 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 27/DEC 3.212M 1.963M
04:05 PM
US
Fed Barkin Speech
06:15 PM
US
Fed Brainard Speech
06:15 PM
US
Fed Evans Speech
07:00 PM
US
FOMC Minutes
08:30 PM
US
Fed Kaplan Speech
11:00 PM
US
Total Vehicle Sales DEC 16.7M 17.1M
Sunday January 05 2020 Actual Previous
06:15 PM
EA
ECB Lane Speech
06:15 PM
US
Fed Williams Speech
09:30 PM
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index DEC 48.3 48.1
10:00 PM
AU
CommBank Services PMI Final DEC 49.8 49.7
Monday January 06 2020 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final DEC 48.4 48.9
01:45 AM
CN
Caixin Services PMI DEC 52.5 53.5
07:00 AM
DE
Retail Sales MoM NOV 2.1% -1.3% ®
07:00 AM
DE
Retail Sales YoY NOV 2.8% 1.4% ®
08:15 AM