Week Ahead

Trade negotiations will be in the spotlight next week, as Beijing sends a delegation to Washington for a three-day visit to sign the so called "Phase One" deal with the US. Meanwhile, key economic data to follow include the US inflation rate, industrial output, retail trade and Michigan consumer sentiment; UK monthly GDP, retail sales and inflation figures; Eurozone industrial output; China Q4 GDP and trade balance; Japan machinery orders; Australia consumer confidence; and India inflation data. The ECB will publish monetary policy meeting accounts, while central banks in Turkey and South Africa will decide on interest rates.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 1/10/2020 6:44:07 PM
Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will lead a delegation to Washington early next week for a three-day visit to sign the so called "Phase One" trade deal with the US. Details have yet to be announced but reports from several sources suggest Beijing agreed to increase purchases of US agricultural products and to address some disputes over intellectual property, while the Trump administration agreed to suspend plans for new tariffs on Chinese imports and to reduce other existing ones. President Trump already announced he would later visit Beijing to start "Phase Two" negotiations.

On the economic data front, the US consumer price inflation rate will probably accelerate to 2.3 percent in December, the highest since September 2018. In addition, industrial output is seen falling in December, led by a decrease in manufacturing production; while retail sales are set to grow at a solid pace. Other notable publications are Michigan consumer sentiment; housing starts and building permits; producer and foreign trade prices; business inventories; JOLTs job openings; NY Empire State Manufacturing Index; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index; IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism; NAHB Housing Market Index; overall capital flows; and the government's budget statement.

Meanwhile, it's a particularly busy week ahead on the UK economic calendar, with all eyes turning to the publication of monthly GDP figures, industrial and construction output, foreign trade balance, consumer and producer prices, and retail trade. Britain's economy is seen contracting 0.1 percent in the September-November period amid Brexit-related uncertainty. Elsewhere in Europe, the ECB account of December's policy meeting will be keenly watched, alongside the Eurozone foreign trade, industrial activity and construction output. Also, Germany's preliminary estimate of 2019 GDP should point to a sharp slowdown in economic growth to 0.6 percent from 1.5 percent in 2018. Other important releases include Italy retail sales and trade balance, and Sweden inflation rate. The Central Bank of Turkey will be deciding on monetary policy.

All eyes will be on China's fourth-quarter GDP growth, alongside industrial output, retail sales and fixed asset investment. The world's second largest economy probably grew by 6 percent, the same pace as in the July-September period and the weakest rate since the first quarter of 1992 due to trade tensions, weakening global demand and alarming off-balance-sheet borrowings by local governments. The country is also scheduled to release trade figures, with markets expecting a 3.2 percent rise in exports and a 9.6 percent jump in imports, after tariffs were suspended as part of the Phase One agreement. House price index, foreign direct investment and monetary indicators will be in the spotlight as well. Meanwhile, Taiwan's voters head to the polls on Saturday, with President Tsai Ing-wen expected to win a second term.

In Japan, key data include machinery orders, tertiary industry index, producer prices, Eco watchers survey and current account; while in Australia investors await updated figures for Westpac consumer confidence and HIA new home sales. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: India consumer and wholesale prices, and trade balance; New Zealand Business NZ PMI; Indonesia trade balance; Singapore non-oil exports; and Malaysia and South Korea unemployment rates.

In Africa, the South African Reserve Bank is seen holding rates at 6.5 percent when it meets on Thursday.





 


Friday January 10 2020 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
AU
Retail Sales MoM NOV 0.9% 0.1% ®
06:45 AM
CH
Unemployment Rate DEC 2.5% 2.3%
07:00 AM
TR
Unemployment Rate OCT 13.4% 13.8%
07:45 AM
FR
Industrial Production MoM NOV 0.3% 0.5% ®
09:00 AM
IT
Industrial Production MoM NOV 0.1% -0.3%
12:00 PM
BR
Inflation Rate YoY DEC 4.31% 3.27%
12:00 PM
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY NOV 2.7% -2.3% ®
12:00 PM
IN
Industrial Production YoY NOV 1.8% -4% ®
12:00 PM
MX
Consumer Confidence DEC 43.4 43.4 ®
01:30 PM
CA
Employment Change DEC 35.2K -71.2K
01:30 PM
CA
Full Time Employment Chg DEC 38.4K -38.4K
01:30 PM
CA
Participation Rate DEC 65.5% 65.6% ®
01:30 PM
CA
Part Time Employment Chg DEC -3.2K -32.8K
01:30 PM
CA
Unemployment Rate DEC 5.6% 5.9%
01:30 PM
US
Non Farm Payrolls DEC 145K 256K ®
01:30 PM
US
Unemployment Rate DEC 3.5% 3.5%
03:00 PM
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM NOV -0.1% 0.1% ®
Monday January 13 2020 Actual Previous
04:00 AM
MY
Unemployment Rate NOV 3.2% 3.2%
07:00 AM
DE
Wholesale Prices MoM DEC 0% -0.1%
07:00 AM
DE
Wholesale Prices YoY DEC -1.3% -2.5%
09:00 AM
IT
Retail Sales MoM NOV -0.2% -0.3% ®
09:30 AM
GB
Balance of Trade NOV £4.03B £-1.34B ®
09:30 AM
GB
Construction Output YoY NOV 2.0% -0.3% ®
09:30 AM
GB
Industrial Production YoY NOV -1.6% -0.6% ®
09:30 AM
GB
Industrial Production MoM NOV -1.2% 0.4% ®
09:30 AM
GB
GDP 3-Month Avg NOV 0.1% 0.2% ®
09:30 AM
GB
Manufacturing Production YoY NOV -2% -0.3% ®
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
12:00 PM
IN
Inflation Rate YoY DEC 7.35% 5.54%
07:00 PM
US
Monthly Budget Statement DEC $-13.3B $-209B
11:50 PM
JP
Current Account NOV ¥1436.8B ¥1816.8B
US
US-China Trade Talks
Tuesday January 14 2020 Actual Previous
03:00 AM
CN
Balance of Trade DEC $46.79B $37.93B
03:00 AM
CN
Exports YoY DEC 7.6% -1.3%
03:00 AM
CN
Imports YoY DEC 16.3% 0.5%
08:30 AM
EA
ECB Mersch Speech
01:30 PM
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY DEC 2.3% 2.3%
01:30 PM
US
Inflation Rate YoY DEC 2.3% 2.1%
01:30 PM
US
Inflation Rate MoM DEC 0.2% 0.3%
01:30 PM
US
Core Inflation Rate MoM DEC 0.1% 0.2%
02:00 PM
US
Fed Williams Speech
03:00 PM
US
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism JAN 57.4 57
09:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 10/JAN 1.1M -5.945M
11:00 PM
KR
Unemployment Rate DEC 3.8% 3.6%
US
US-China Trade Talks
Wednesday January 15 2020 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
JP
BoJ Gov Kuroda Speech
04:00 AM
ID
Balance of Trade DEC $-0.03B $-1.39B ®
07:45 AM
FR
Inflation Rate YoY Final DEC 1.5% 1.0%
08:30 AM
SE
CPIF YoY DEC 1.7% 1.7%
08:30 AM
SE
Inflation Rate MoM DEC 0.4% 0.1%
08:40 AM
GB
BoE Saunders Speech
09:00 AM
DE
Full Year GDP Growth 2019 0.6% 1.5%
09:00 AM
DE
Government Budget 2019 1.5% 1.9%
09:30 AM
GB
Inflation Rate YoY DEC 1.3% 1.5%
09:30 AM
GB
Inflation Rate MoM DEC 0% 0.2%
09:30 AM
GB
Core Inflation Rate YoY DEC 1.4% 1.7%
10:00 AM
EA
Balance of Trade NOV €20.7B €28B
10:00 AM
EA
Industrial Production YoY NOV -1.5% -2.6% ®
10:00 AM
EA
Industrial Production MoM NOV 0.2% -0.9% ®
11:00 AM
ZA
Retail Sales YoY NOV