Week Ahead

Market volatility is expected in the coming week as Britain finally leaves the EU, while monetary policy decisions from the Fed and the Bank of England are also awaited. Other notable publications are US Q4 GDP growth, personal income and outlays, and durable goods orders; UK Gfk consumer confidence; Eurozone Q4 GDP figures, business survey and inflation rate; China NBS PMIs; Japan consumer morale, retail trade and industrial output; and Australia Q4 inflation and NAB business confidence.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 1/24/2020 6:25:04 PM
The US Federal Reserve will probably hold interest rates at current levels when it meets on Wednesday, with investor focus turning to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for further details about future policy steps. Regarding the US economic calendar, the advance estimate of fourth-quarter GDP will be keenly watched, as well as personal income and outlays, PCE price index, durable goods orders, employment cost index, new and pending home sales, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, Chicago PMI, Case-Shiller home prices, advance estimates of wholesale inventories and goods trade balance, and the final estimate of Michigan consumer sentiment.

On the corporate side, a new round of quarterly earnings kicks off with investors awaiting reports from big tech firms including Apple, Facebook, Alibaba, Microsoft and Amazon.

Elsewhere in America, key reports to keep an eye on include Canada monthly GDP and producer prices, Mexico fourth-quarter GDP, and Brazil unemployment rate.

The UK is leaving the European Union on January 31st, more than three-and-a-half years after voters decided to do so in a referendum held on June 23rd, 2016. Brexit was first due to happen in March 2019 under PM Theresa May, but it was delayed twice after Parliament rejected her deal, pushing the date to October. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson replaced Theresa May as PM in July and was forced to seek a third extension as the parliament failed to pass a revised Brexit deal into law. After calling for an early general election to end the Brexit deadlock, the new PM finally got the support needed to clear the path for Brexit. The European Parliament plenary will vote for the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement next Wednesday and is also expected to approve Britain's withdrawal terms. In addition to Brexit, Mark Carney will chair his last policy meeting as Bank of England governor on Thursday. Policymakers are seen holding rates, but persistent weak data suggest an interest rate cut is still on the table. The Gfk consumer confidence will also be in the spotlight, alongside monetary indicators, CBI Distributive Trades and Nationwide housing prices.

Elsewhere in Europe, important data include: the Eurozone fourth-quarter GDP figures, business survey, inflation and unemployment rates, and monetary indicators; Germany Ifo business climate, Gfk consumer confidence and retail trade; Switzerland KOF leading indicators, retail sales and trade balance; and Turkey industry morale and foreign trade.

In China, the NBS will be releasing its manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI surveys, with forecasts pointing to a stabilization in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan will publish the summary of opinions from board members, following a growth forecast upgrade at its last policy meeting. On the economic data front, important releases for Japan include retail sales, industrial production, consumer confidence, unemployment rate, Tokyo inflation and housing starts.

Meanwhile in Australia key data include Q4 consumer price inflation, NAB business confidence, Westpac leading index, and private sector credit. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: South Korea consumer and business morale, industrial production and foreign trade; New Zealand and Hong Kong trade balance data; Vietnam trade, inflation, industrial output; Thailand industrial production; Singapore unemployment rate; and India public budget deficit.





 


Friday January 24 2020 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash JAN 49.3 48.4
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI Flash JAN 52.1 49.4
08:15 AM
FR
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash JAN 51.0 50.4
08:15 AM
FR
Markit Services PMI Flash JAN 51.7 52.4
08:30 AM
DE
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash JAN 45.2 43.7
08:30 AM
DE
Markit Services PMI Flash JAN 54.2 52.9
09:00 AM
EA
Markit Services PMI Flash JAN 52.2 52.8
09:00 AM
EA
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash JAN 47.8 46.3
09:30 AM
GB
Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash JAN 49.8 47.5
09:30 AM
GB
Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Flash JAN 52.9 50
10:30 AM
EA
ECB President Lagarde Speech
01:30 PM
CA
Retail Sales MoM NOV 0.9% -1.1% ®
01:30 PM
NG
Interest Rate Decision 13.5% 13.5%
02:45 PM
US
Markit Composite PMI Flash JAN 53.1 52.7
02:45 PM
US
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash JAN 51.7 52.4
02:45 PM
US
Markit Services PMI Flash JAN 53.2 52.8
CH
World Economic Forum Annual Meeting
Monday January 27 2020 Actual Previous
07:00 AM
TR
Business Confidence JAN 104.1 103.6
07:00 AM
TR
Capacity Utilization JAN 75.5% 77%
09:00 AM
DE
Ifo Business Climate JAN 95.9 96.3
09:00 AM
PL
Unemployment Rate DEC 5.2% 5.1%
09:30 AM
GB
UK Finance Mortgage Approvals DEC 46.815K 44.058K ®
11:00 AM
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims DEC -10K -27.8K
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
01:00 PM
RU
Unemployment Rate DEC 4.6% 4.6%
03:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank Balz Speech
03:00 PM
US
New Home Sales MoM DEC -0.4% -1.1% ®
03:00 PM
US
New Home Sales DEC 0.694M 0.697M ®
03:30 PM
US
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index JAN -0.2 -3.2
Tuesday January 28 2020 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
AU
NAB Business Confidence DEC -2 0
07:00 AM
CH
Balance of Trade DEC CHF2.0B CHF2.3B ®
08:00 AM
ES
Unemployment Rate Q4 13.8% 13.92%
11:00 AM
GB
CBI Distributive Trades JAN 0 0
12:00 PM
MX
Balance of Trade DEC $3.068B $0.79B
01:30 PM
US
Durable Goods Orders MoM DEC 2.4% -3.1% ®
01:30 PM
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM DEC -0.1% -0.4% ®
02:00 PM
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY NOV 2.6% 2.2%
02:00 PM
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM NOV 0.1% 0.1%
09:00 PM
KR
Consumer Confidence JAN 104.2 100.5 ®
09:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 24/JAN -4.267M 1.6M
11:50 PM
JP
BoJ Summary of Opinions
Wednesday January 29 2020 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
AU
Inflation Rate YoY Q4 1.8% 1.7%
12:30 AM
AU
Inflation Rate QoQ Q4 0.7% 0.5%
05:00 AM
JP
Consumer Confidence JAN 39.1 39.1
07:00 AM
DE
GfK Consumer Confidence FEB 9.9 9.7 ®
07:00 AM
GB
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY JAN 1.9% 1.4%
07:00 AM
GB
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM JAN 0.5% 0.1%
07:45 AM
FR
Consumer Confidence JAN 104 102