Week Ahead

The US is releasing the second estimate of Q4 GDP growth in the coming week, alongside durable goods orders, personal income and outlays, and PCE price index. Elsewhere, all eyes turn to China's NBS PMI survey, the country's first major data release since the coronavirus outbreak, and to the NPC Standing Committee Meeting on Monday. Other important numbers include UK consumer morale, Eurozone business confidence, Germany unemployment and inflation, Japan industrial production and retail sales, and India Q4 GDP growth.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 2/21/2020 4:44:17 PM
The US will be publishing the second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP on Thursday, with markets expecting the 2.1 percent expansion to be confirmed mainly due to a positive contribution from net trade amid a sharp decline in imports. Meanwhile, durable goods orders are seen falling in January, after rising the most since August 2018 the month before. Other notable publications include: personal income and outlays; PCE price index; new and pending home sales; Case-Shiller home prices; Chicago Fed National Activity Index; Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index; Chicago PMI; the advance estimates of goods trade balance and wholesale inventories; and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment. 

Other key data to watch for in America include Canada fourth-quarter GDP and current account; Mexico final fourth-quarter GDP reading, unemployment and trade balance; and Brazil jobless rate. The central bank of Mexico is also due to publish its monetary policy meeting minutes.

The UK will release Gfk consumer confidence, CBI distributive trades, UK Finance mortgage approvals and Nationwide house prices. Elsewhere in Europe, business morale in the Eurozone and Germany is expected to deteriorate as the coronavirus outbreak hits global supply chains. Investors will also keep an eye on final estimates of fourth-quarter GDP for several European countries, including Germany. Preliminary data showed Europe’s largest economy stalled amid a fall in exports and weak manufacturing sector. Other important releases include: Eurozone monetary indicators; Germany unemployment rate and inflation; France and Italy industry and consumer sentiment, and flash inflation rates; Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators and retail trade; and Turkey Q4 GDP growth, business survey and foreign trade.

China's NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI surveys will provide an insight into the early impact of the epidemic on the world's second-largest economy, with forecasts pointing to a steep deterioration in the manufacturing sector during February. Traders will also monitor China’s NPC Standing Committee Meeting, where members may consider a delay of the annual National People’s Congress amid the coronavirus outbreak.

In Japan, investors turn their attention to January's industrial production, retail sales, unemployment rate, housing starts and Tokyo inflation. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea will meet to set monetary policy, but no changes are expected despite virus impact fears. On the economic data front, notable publications include consumer and business confidence, industrial production and retail sales. Investors in Australia will focus on construction work done, private capital expenditure and private sector credit.

Other key data for the Asia-Pacific region include: India Q4 GDP figures; Hong Kong final fourth-quarter GDP reading and foreign trade; Taiwan industrial output and retail sales; Singapore inflation, industrial production and current account; Thailand trade balance, industrial output and jobless rate; Vietnam industrial output and inflation; and New Zealand trade balance, retail sales and ANZ business confidence.





 


Friday February 21 2020 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash FEB 47.6 48.8
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI Flash FEB 46.7 51.0
04:00 AM
MY
Inflation Rate YoY JAN 1.6% 1.0% ®
08:15 AM
FR
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash FEB 49.7 51.1
08:15 AM
FR
Markit Services PMI Flash FEB 52.6 51
08:30 AM
DE
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash FEB 47.8 45.3
08:30 AM
DE
Markit Services PMI Flash FEB 53.3 54.2
08:30 AM
SE
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
09:00 AM
EA
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash FEB 49.1 47.9
09:00 AM
EA
Markit Services PMI Flash FEB 52.8 52.5
09:30 AM
GB
Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash FEB 51.9 50
09:30 AM
GB
Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Flash FEB 53.3 53.9
10:00 AM
EA
Inflation Rate YoY Final JAN 1.4% 1.3%
10:00 AM
EA
Core Inflation Rate YoY Final JAN 1.1% 1.3%
10:00 AM
EA
Inflation Rate MoM JAN -1% 0.3%
10:00 AM
IT
Inflation Rate YoY Final JAN 0.5% 0.5%
01:30 PM
CA
Retail Sales MoM DEC 0% 1.1% ®
02:35 PM
US
Fed Kaplan Speech
02:45 PM
US
Markit Composite PMI Flash FEB 49.6 53.3
02:45 PM
US
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash FEB 50.8 51.9
02:45 PM
US
Markit Services PMI Flash FEB 49.4 53.4
03:00 PM
US
Fed Bostic Speech
03:00 PM
US
Existing Home Sales MoM JAN -1.3% 3.9% ®
03:00 PM
US
Existing Home Sales JAN 5.46M 5.53M ®
03:00 PM
US
Fed Brainard Speech
06:30 PM
US
Fed Clarida Speech
06:30 PM
US
Fed Mester Speech
Sunday February 23 2020 Actual Previous
DE
Regional Elections
Monday February 24 2020 Actual Previous
03:00 AM
TH
Balance of Trade JAN $-1.56B $0.6B
07:00 AM
TR
Business Confidence FEB 106.9 104.1
07:00 AM
TR
Capacity Utilization FEB 76% 75.5%
07:30 AM
NG
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q4 2.55% 2.28% ®
07:30 AM
NG
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q4 5.59% 9.23%
09:00 AM
DE
Ifo Business Climate FEB 96.1 96.0 ®
09:00 AM
TW
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q4 3.31% 2.99%
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
01:30 PM
US
Chicago Fed National Activity Index JAN -0.25 -0.51 ®
03:30 PM
US
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index FEB 1.2 -0.2
04:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank Beermann Speech
06:30 PM
GB
BoE Haldane Speech
08:00 PM
US
Fed Mester Speech
09:00 PM
KR
Consumer Confidence FEB 96.9 104.2
CN
NPC Committee Meeting
Tuesday February 25 2020 Actual Previous
07:00 AM
DE
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q4 0.4% 0.6%
07:00 AM
DE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q4 0% 0.2%
07:45 AM
FR
Business Confidence FEB 102 102 ®
09:00 AM
PL
Unemployment Rate JAN 5.5% 5.2%
11:00 AM
GB
CBI Distributive Trades FEB 1 0
12:00 PM
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q4 -0.5% -0.3%
12:00 PM
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q4 -0.1% -0.1% ®
02:00 PM
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM DEC 0% 0.1%
02:00 PM
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY DEC 2.9% 2.5% ®
02:45 PM
US
Fed Kaplan Speech
03:00 PM
US