Week Ahead

Investors will continue to assess the impact of coronavirus on the global economy next week, while the US Democratic primaries and the UK-EU trade negotiations will also dominate the news. Meanwhile, central banks in Australia, Malaysia and Canada will be deciding on interest rates, while important data to follow include the US jobs report, ISM PMI and trade balance; China foreign trade and Markit PMI; Germany factory orders; Japan consumer morale; and Australia Q4 GDP and trade.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 2/28/2020 6:19:28 PM
The US jobs report will be in the spotlight in the coming week, with markets predicting a payroll increase of 175 thousand in February, after a larger-than-expected 225 thousand rise the month before. In addition, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is likely to point to a slowdown in manufacturing growth and the Non-Manufacturing PMI will probably fall from January's five-month high. Other notable publications are foreign trade balance, factory orders, construction spending, ADP employment change, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, and final readings of nonfarm productivity, wholesale inventories and Markit PMIs. On the political front, all eyes turn to the Democratic primaries as more than a third of the 2020 primary votes will be cast on Super Tuesday.

Elsewhere in America, the Bank of Canada will probably hold interest rates at current levels when it meets on Wednesday. Key data to follow include Canada employment figures, trade balance, Ivey PMI and Markit Manufacturing PMI; Brazil fourth-quarter GDP figures and foreign trade ; and Mexico consumer and business morale.

Trade negotiations between the UK and the EU start next week, with PM Boris Johnson demanding a broad outline of a deal similar to that of a Canada-style agreement to be reached by June. On the economic data front, final Markit PMIs are expected to confirm the country's manufacturing sector expanded by the most in ten months while the services sector growth slowed. Other important releases include Markit Construction PMI, Bank of England's monetary indicators and new car sales.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone February inflation rate is seen declining from a nine-month high; while Germany manufacturing orders are set to rebound after posting the biggest drop for 10 months. Investors will also keep an eye on the final Markit PMI surveys for the Euro Area, Germany and France while Italy and Spain will publish their preliminary estimates. Other key data include Eurozone retail sales and unemployment rate; German retail trade; France trade balance; Italy full-year GDP, retail sales and jobless rate; Greece and Irelad fourth-quarter GDP figures; Switzerland fourth-quarter GDP, Manufacturing PMI and inflation rate; and Turkey consumer and producer prices.  

China's trade balance report for the first two months of 2020 will be highly anticipated next week, while the Caixin PMIs for February will likely provide an insight into the early impact of the epidemic and the extended Lunar New Year Holiday, with forecasts pointing to the sharpest deterioration in the manufacturing sector on record. Meanwhile in Japan, investors will focus on consumer confidence, household spending, the preliminary reading of January's leading economic index, and final Jibun Bank PMIs. The Reserve Bank of Australia will hold its monetary policy meeting, but no changes are expected. On the economic data front, main releases are fourth-quarter GDP, trade figures, retail sales, Ai Group indexes, building permits, HIA new home sales and final Commbank PMIs. Traders in South Korea will turn their attention to the final reading of the fourth-quarter GDP, trade balance, consumer inflation and Markit Manufacturing PMI.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan and the Philippines inflation rates; India Markit PMIs; Hong Kong retail sales and Markit PMI; Singapore SIPMM and Markit PMI surveys; and Malaysia interest rate decision and trade balance. 

Investors will also follow the OPEC meeting on Thursday and Friday on hopes for any additional crude output cuts by Members.  





 


Friday February 28 2020 Actual Previous
12:00 AM
US
Fed Mester Speech
12:01 AM
GB
Gfk Consumer Confidence FEB -7 -9
05:00 AM
JP
Housing Starts YoY JAN -10.1% -7.9%
07:00 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate Harmonised JAN 3.2% 3.2%
07:00 AM
TR
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q4 6% 1.0% ®
07:00 AM
TR
Balance of Trade JAN $-4.45B $-4.65B ®
07:00 AM
TR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q4 1.9% 0.8% ®
07:00 AM
GB
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY FEB 2.3% 1.9%
07:00 AM
GB
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM FEB 0.3% 0.5%
07:30 AM
CH
Retail Sales YoY JAN -0.1% 0.8% ®
07:45 AM
FR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q4 -0.1% 0.3%
07:45 AM
FR
Inflation Rate YoY Prel FEB 1.4% 1.5%
08:00 AM
CH
KOF Leading Indicators FEB 100.9 100.1
08:30 AM
SE
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q4 0.8% 1.8% ®
08:30 AM
SE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q4 0.2% 0.4% ®
08:55 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate FEB 5% 5%
08:55 AM
DE
Unemployment Change FEB -10K -4K ®
09:00 AM
PL
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q4 3.2% 3.9%
09:00 AM
PL
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q4 0.3% 1.2%
10:00 AM
DE
Bundesbank Beermann Speech
10:00 AM
DE
Bundesbank Weidmann Speech
10:00 AM
IT
Inflation Rate YoY Prel FEB 0.4% 0.5%
11:15 AM
GB
BoE Haldane Speech
12:00 PM
BR
Unemployment Rate JAN 11.2% 11%
12:00 PM
IN
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q4 4.7% 5.1% ®
12:00 PM
MX
Balance of Trade JAN $-2.416B $3.068B
12:00 PM
ZA
Balance of Trade JAN ZAR -1.87B ZAR13.9B ®
01:00 PM
DE
Inflation Rate YoY Prel FEB 1.7% 1.7%
01:30 PM
CA
GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q4 0.3% 1.1% ®
01:30 PM
CA
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q4 0.1% 0.3%
01:30 PM
CA
GDP MoM DEC 0.3% 0.1%
01:30 PM
US
Personal Income MoM JAN 0.6% 0.1% ®
01:30 PM
US
Personal Spending MoM JAN 0.2% 0.4% ®
01:30 PM
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv JAN -0.2% -0.3% ®
01:30 PM
US
PCE Price Index MoM JAN 0.1% 0.3%
01:30 PM
US
PCE Price Index YoY JAN 1.7% 1.5% ®
01:30 PM
US
Goods Trade Balance Adv JAN $-65.5B $-68.67B
02:15 PM
US
Fed Bullard Speech
02:45 PM
US
Chicago PMI FEB 49 42.9
03:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations Final FEB 92.1 90.5
03:00 PM
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final FEB 2.3% 2.5%
03:00 PM
US
Michigan Current Conditions Final FEB 114.8 114.4
03:00 PM
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations Final FEB 2.4% 2.5%
03:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final FEB 101 99.8
04:15 PM