Week Ahead

Next week, focus will again remain on coronavirus developments. As the virus hit transport, travel and tourism sectors all over the world, investors will be waiting for more stimulus measures from central banks and governments. The ECB holds monetary policy meeting on Thursday and UK will publish Spring Budget for 2020 on Wednesday. In the US, main releases include inflation and consumer confidence data. Other important events to be followed are UK monthly GDP, Eurozone and Japan final Q4 GDP figures; Germany industrial output; China consumer and producer inflation; Australia business and consumer morale; and India inflation and industrial production.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 3/9/2020 10:56:41 AM
The US consumer price inflation is seen slowing to 2.3 percent in February from 2.5 percent the month before, which was the highest since October 2018. In addition, the preliminary reading of Michigan consumer sentiment is expected to point to a sharp deterioration in consumer morale during March as the spread of coronavirus in the country accelerated, which triggered an unscheduled Fed interest rate cut this week. Other notable publications are producer and foreign trade prices and the government's budget statement.

Elsewhere in America, key data to follow include Canada building permits and housing starts, and Mexico and Brazil industrial output and inflation rates.

Meanwhile, all eyes turn to Britain's first post-Brexit budget on Wednesday as finance minister Rishi Sunak announces the tax and spending plans of the new government in parliament. PM Boris Johnson's election pledges included a cut in social security contributions and £100 billion more public investment by the mid-2020s, but uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus outbreak and the outcome of Brexit trade talks could lead to a reallocation of funds towards other priorities. On the economic data front, key releases are monthly GDP figures, manufacturing production, construction output and foreign trade.

Elsewhere in Europe, the ECB is likely to slash its deposit rate by 10bps to support the bloc's economy in the fight against coronavirus. In terms of data, the Eurozone will be releasing the final estimate of fourth-quarter GDP figures, while Germany, France and Italy are set to publish industrial output data for January, with market forecasts pointing to rebounds in activity following steep falls in December. Traders will also keep an eye on Germany foreign trade, Switzerland and Turkey jobless rates, and Sweden and Ireland inflation rates. 

In China, data to be published include consumer and producer prices, with forecasts pointing to a slowdown in inflation from January's eight-year high while producer prices should fall back into deflationary territory amid the coronavirus outbreak. Meanwhile, Japan's final reading of fourth-quarter should show a steeper contraction than previously estimated. The country's current account and Eco Watchers Survey will also be in the spotlight. Australia will be publishing NAB business confidence, Westpac consumer confidence and home loans; while traders in India will follow consumer inflation and industrial output.  

Other key data for the Asia-Pacific region include: Taiwan trade balance; South Korea unemployment rate; Philippines foreign trade, Singapore unemployment and retail sales; Malaysia industrial production and unemployment rate; and New Zealand business NZ PMI.

Investors will also react to the IEA's Oil Market Report and OPEC's Monthly Report. Crude prices tumbled to the lowest level since 2016 after OPEC removed all limits on its own production in response to Russia's refusal to agree on deeper oil cuts.





 


Friday March 06 2020 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
AU
Retail Sales MoM JAN -0.3% -0.7% ®
01:00 AM
PH
Unemployment Rate Q1 5.3% 4.5%
01:00 AM
US
Fed Kashkari Speech
01:45 AM
US
Fed Williams Speech
07:00 AM
DE
Factory Orders MoM JAN 5.5% -2.1%
07:45 AM
FR
Balance of Trade JAN €-5.887B €-3.716B ®
08:30 AM
GB
Halifax House Price Index MoM FEB 0.3% 0.4%
08:30 AM
GB
Halifax House Price Index YoY FEB 2.8% 4.1%
09:00 AM
IT
Retail Sales MoM JAN 0% 0.5%
11:00 AM
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q4 6.2% 4.5% ®
11:00 AM
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q4 1.8% 2.1% ®
11:55 AM
DE
Bundesbank Balz Speech
01:00 PM
RU
Foreign Exchange Reserves FEB $570.4B $562.3B
01:00 PM
RU
Inflation Rate YoY FEB 2.3% 2.4%
01:30 PM
CA
Balance of Trade JAN C$-1.47B C$-0.73B ®
01:30 PM
CA
Employment Change FEB 30.3K 34.5K
01:30 PM
CA
Full Time Employment Chg FEB 37.6K 35.7K
01:30 PM
CA
Participation Rate FEB 65.5% 65.4%
01:30 PM
CA
Part Time Employment Chg FEB -7.3K -1.2K
01:30 PM
CA
Unemployment Rate FEB 5.6% 5.5%
01:30 PM
US
Balance of Trade JAN $-45.3B $-48.6B ®
01:30 PM
US
Non Farm Payrolls FEB 273K 273K ®
01:30 PM
US
Unemployment Rate FEB 3.5% 3.6%
02:20 PM
US
Fed Evans Speech
02:20 PM
US
Fed Mester Speech
03:00 PM
CA
Ivey PMI s.a FEB 54.1 57.3
03:00 PM
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM JAN -0.4% -0.3%
04:20 PM
US
Fed Bullard Speech
07:00 PM
US
Fed Williams Speech
07:00 PM
US
Fed Rosengren Speech
08:30 PM
US
Fed George Speech
AT
OPEC Meeting
Saturday March 07 2020 Actual Previous
03:00 AM
CN
Balance of Trade JAN-FEB $-7.09B $47.21B
03:00 AM
CN
Exports YoY JAN-FEB -17.2% 7.9%
03:00 AM
CN
Imports YoY JAN-FEB -4% 16.5%
Sunday March 08 2020 Actual Previous
11:50 PM
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q4 -1.8% 0.0% ®
11:50 PM
JP
Current Account JAN ¥612B ¥524B
11:50 PM
JP
GDP Growth Annualized Final Q4 -7.1% 0.1% ®
Monday March 09 2020 Actual Previous
06:45 AM
CH
Unemployment Rate FEB 2.5% 2.6%
07:00 AM
DE
Balance of Trade JAN €13.9B €15.2B
07:00 AM
DE
Industrial Production MoM JAN 3% -2.2% ®
09:00 AM
FR
IEA Oil Market Report
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
12:00 PM
MX
Inflation Rate YoY FEB 3.70% 3.24%
12:15 PM
CA
Housing Starts FEB 210K 213K
Tuesday March 10 2020 Actual Previous
01:00 AM
AU
NAB Business Confidence FEB -4 -1
01:30 AM
CN
Inflation Rate YoY FEB 5.2% 5.4%
01:30 AM
CN
Inflation Rate MoM FEB 0.8% 1.4%
01:30 AM
CN
PPI YoY FEB -0.4% 0.1%
07:00 AM
TR
Unemployment Rate DEC 13.7% 13.3%
07:45 AM
FR
Industrial Production MoM JAN 1.2% -2.5% ®
09:00 AM
IT
Industrial Production MoM JAN 3.7% -2.6% ®
10:00 AM
EA
GDP Growth Rate YoY 3rd Est Q4 1% 1.3% ®
10:00 AM
EA
GDP Growth Rate QoQ 3rd Est Q4 0.1% 0.3%
10:00 AM
EA
Employment Change QoQ Final Q4 0.3% 0.2% ®
10:00 AM
EA
Employment Change YoY Final Q4 1.1% 1.1% ®
11:00 AM
IL
GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q4 1.0% 1.1%
12:00 PM
BR
Industrial Production MoM JAN 0.9% -0.8% ®
09:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 06/MAR 6.407M 1.69M
10:00 PM
AU
RBA Debelle Speech
11:00 PM
KR
Unemployment Rate FEB 3.3% 4%
11:30 PM
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change MAR -3.8% 2.3%
11:30 PM
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index MAR 91.9 95.5
Wednesday March 11 2020 Actual Previous
07:00 AM
GB
BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.75%
09:00 AM
GB
BoE Press Conference
09:30 AM
GB
Balance of Trade JAN £4.2B £6.3B ®
09:30 AM
GB
GDP 3-Month Avg JAN 0% 0%
09:30 AM
GB
Manufacturing Production YoY JAN -3.6% -2.5%
09:30 AM
GB
Construction Output YoY JAN 1.6% 5%
09:30 AM
GB
Industrial Production YoY JAN -2.9% -1.8%
09:30 AM
GB
Industrial Production MoM JAN -0.1% 0.1%
10:00 AM
ZA
Business Confidence Q1 18 26
12:00 PM
BR
Inflation Rate YoY FEB 4.01% 4.19%
12:30 PM
GB
Spring Budget 2020