Week Ahead

The novel coronavirus will continue to dominate the headlines, with investors monitoring the spread of Covid-19 and hoping for more stimulus measures from central banks and governments worldwide. On the economic data front, the US jobless claims are seen jumping to a record high, while flash PMI surveys for the US, UK, Eurozone, Japan and Australia will provide an insight into the early impact of the pandemic on the global economy. Other key data to follow include the US final Q4 GDP, personal income and outlays, and durable goods orders; the UK interest rate decision and inflation rate; and the Eurozone consumer morale.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 3/21/2020 12:47:38 PM
The Markit PMI survey for the US is set to highlight the damage from the coronavirus outbreak on the world's largest economy. All forecasts suggest the private sector activity is falling at a record pace this month. In addition, the weekly jobless claims are seen jumping to an all-time high due to the COVID-19 crisis, while the final estimate of fourth-quarter GDP will probably see the confirmation of a 2.1 percent expansion. Other notable publications include: personal income and outlays; PCE price index; durable goods orders; new home sales; Chicago Fed National Activity Index; the advance estimates of goods trade balance and wholesale inventories; and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment. 

Elsewhere in America, the central bank of Mexico will be deciding on monetary policy on Thursday, following an emergency rate cut on March 20th. Other key reports to follow include Canada average weekly earnings, wholesale sales and budget balance; Mexico unemployment, trade balance and retail trade; Brazil current account and retail sales; and Argentina fourth-quarter GDP and jobless rate. 

Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England will meet to deliver its latest policy decision, after surprising markets with two unscheduled rate cuts in the last two weeks. It is also a particularly busy week ahead on the UK economic calendar, with investors awaiting flash Markit PMIs, inflation rate, retail trade, and CBI gauges for factory orders and distributive trades.

Elsewhere in Europe, flash Markit PMIs for the Eurozone, Germany and France are likely to point to a severe contraction in the private sector during March due to the coronavirus outbreak. Investors will also keep an eye on consumer morale from the Eurozone, Germany, France and Italy as well as industry confidence from France and Italy.

In Japan, the Jibun Bank will be publishing its flash PMIs for March, with markets expecting weak results as the factory industry and the service sector have been hardly impacted by the coronavirus pandemic. Other important releases include Tokyo inflation and January’s final leading economic index. Meanwhile in Australia, investors will focus on Commbank flash PMIs as the Covid-19 hit manufacturing supply chains and the service sector.

Other key data for the Asia-Pacific region include: China industrial profits; South Korea consumer confidence; Hong Kong inflation, industrial production and trade balance; Taiwan industrial activity and retail sales; New Zealand foreign trade; Malaysia inflation rate; Singapore industrial output, consumer and producer prices; and Thailand industrial output and trade balance. The Bank of Thailand will hold its monetary policy meeting, with traders expecting further monetary support amid weak domestic growth, the coronavirus outbreak and local drought.





 


Monday March 23 2020 Actual Previous
07:00 AM
TH
Balance of Trade FEB $3.9B $-1.56B
07:00 AM
TR
Consumer Confidence MAR 58.2 57.3
08:00 AM
CH
Current Account Q4 CHF 26B CHF20B ®
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
12:30 PM
US
Chicago Fed National Activity Index FEB 0.16 -0.33 ®
03:00 PM
EA
Consumer Confidence Flash MAR -11.6 -6.6
08:30 PM
GB
PM Johnson Statement on Coronavirus
10:00 PM
AU
CommBank Manufacturing PMI Flash MAR 50.1 50.2
10:00 PM
AU
CommBank Services PMI Flash MAR 39.8 49
EU
EcoFin Video Conference
GB
Parliamentary Debate on Coronavirus Bill: Day 1 MAR
Tuesday March 24 2020 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash MAR 44.8 47.8
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI Flash MAR 32.7 46.8
08:15 AM
FR
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash MAR 42.9 49.8
08:15 AM
FR
Markit Services PMI Flash MAR 29.0 52.5
08:30 AM
DE
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash MAR 45.7 48
08:30 AM
DE
Markit Services PMI Flash MAR 34.5 52.5
09:00 AM
EA
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash MAR 44.8 49.2
09:00 AM
EA
Markit Services PMI Flash MAR 28.4 52.6
09:00 AM
PL
Unemployment Rate FEB 5.5% 5.5%
09:30 AM
GB
BoE FPC Statement
09:30 AM
GB
Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash MAR 48 51.7
09:30 AM
GB
Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Flash MAR 35.7 53.2
11:00 AM
BR
BCB Copom Meeting Minutes
11:00 AM
GB
CBI Industrial Trends Orders MAR -29 -18
12:00 PM
BR
Retail Sales MoM JAN -1% -0.5% ®
01:30 PM
NG
Interest Rate Decision 13.5% 13.5%
01:45 PM
US
Markit Composite PMI Flash MAR 40.5 49.6
01:45 PM
US
Fed Bullard Speech
01:45 PM
US
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash MAR 49.2 50.7
01:45 PM
US
Markit Services PMI Flash MAR 39.1 49.4
02:00 PM
US
New Home Sales MoM FEB -4.4% 7.9% ®
02:00 PM
US
New Home Sales FEB 0.765M 0.8M ®
04:00 PM
CA
Parliamentary Debate & Vote on Coronavirus Aid Package
08:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 20/MAR -1.25M -0.421M
11:50 PM
JP
BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
EA
Eurogroup Video Conference
Wednesday March 25 2020 Actual Previous
04:00 AM
MY
Inflation Rate YoY FEB 1.3% 1.6%
05:30 AM
NL
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q4 1.6% 1.9%
05:30 AM
NL
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q4 0.4% 0.4%
07:00 AM
NO
Unemployment Rate JAN 3.8% 3.9%
07:00 AM
TR
Business Confidence MAR 99.7 106.9
07:00 AM
TR
Capacity Utilization MAR 75.3% 76%
07:00 AM
GB
Inflation Rate YoY FEB 1.7% 1.8%
07:00 AM
GB
Inflation Rate MoM FEB 0.4% -0.3%
07:00 AM
GB
Core Inflation Rate YoY FEB 1.7% 1.6%
07:05 AM
TH
Interest Rate Decision 0.75% 1%
09:00 AM
DE
Ifo Business Climate Final MAR 86.1 96
11:00 AM
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims FEB -31K -28.1K
11:00 AM
GB
CBI Distributive Trades MAR -3 1
12:30 PM
US
Durable Goods Orders MoM FEB 1.2% 0.1% ®
12:30 PM
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM FEB -0.6% 0.6% ®
02:00 PM
CH
SNB Quarterly Bulletin
02:30 PM
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change 20/MAR -0.679M -2.94M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 20/MAR 1.623M 1.954M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change 20/MAR 0.858M 0.563M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 20/MAR -1.537M -6.18M
07:00 PM
AR
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q4 -1.1% -1.8% ®
07:00 PM
AR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q4 -1% 1% ®
Thursday March 26 2020 Actual Previous
12:00 AM
SG
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv Q1 -2.2% 1%
12:00 AM
SG
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q1 -10.6% 0.6%
06:30 AM
FR
Business Confidence MAR 98 101 ®
07:00 AM
DE
GfK Consumer Confidence APR 2.7 8.3 ®
07:00 AM
GB
Retail Sales MoM FEB -0.3% 1.1% ®
07:00 AM
GB
Retail Sales YoY FEB 0% 0.9% ®
09:00 AM
EA
ECB Economic Bulletin
11:00 AM
TR
MPC Meeting Summary
11:00 AM
US
Fed Chair Powell Speech
12:00 PM
MX
Unemployment Rate FEB 3.6% 3.8%
12:00 PM
GB
BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.1% 0.1%
12:00 PM
GB
BoE Quantitative Easing £645B £645B
12:00 PM
GB
MPC Meeting Minutes
12:00 PM
GB
BoE MPC Vote Hike 0/9 0/9
12:00 PM
GB
BoE MPC Vote Unchanged 9/9 0/9
12:00 PM
GB
BoE MPC Vote Cut 0/9 9/9
12:30 PM
US
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q4 2.1% 2.1%
12:30 PM
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv FEB -0.5% -0.5% ®
12:30 PM
US
Initial Jobless Claims 21/MAR 3283K 282K ®
12:30 PM