The US jobs report will be in the spotlight in the coming week, with markets predicting a payroll decrease of 100 thousand in March, as people lose their jobs due to the coronavirus outbreak amid efforts to contain the rapid spread of the pandemic. In addition, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is likely to point to the steepest contraction in factory activity since May 2009 and the Non-Manufacturing PMI will probably fall to a near 11-year low as many businesses are forced to close amid the Covid-19 crisis. Other notable publications are foreign trade balance, factory orders, construction spending, ADP employment change, Case-Shiller home prices, pending home sales, Chicago PMI, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index and final readings of wholesale inventories and Markit PMIs.
Elsewhere in America, key data to follow include Canada monthly GDP, trade balance and Markit Manufacturing PMI; Brazil consumer morale, jobless rate, industrial output, foreign trade and Markit PMIs; and Mexico consumer and business morale, and Markit Manufacturing PMI.
Across the Atlantic, final Markit PMIs in the UK are expected to confirm the country's private sector activity slumped by the most since at least 1998 during March, led by a record pace contraction in the service sector. At the same time, consumer morale should fall to the lowest level since July 2013 as recession fears mount. Other important releases include Bank of England's monetary indicators and final fourth-quarter GDP.
Elsewhere in Europe, investors will keep an eye on Markit PMI surveys for Italy and Spain, which will probably show the biggest drop in private sector output on record. Both countries, which have been the most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic in Europe, announced recently the highest number of new deaths from the coronavirus in the space of 24 hours since the outbreak began. Other key data include the Eurozone business survey, inflation rate, retail sales and unemployment; Germany jobless rate and retail trade; Switzerland KOF leading indicators, inflation and retail trade; Italy unemployment rate; Spain and Russia final fourth-quarter GDP data; and Turkey trade balance and consumer prices.
In Asia, the Bank of Japan’s tankan quarterly survey will probably show a sharp deterioration in business sentiment both at manufacturers and non-manufacturers as the Covid-19 outbreak stokes fears of a global recession. In addition, the country's industrial production, retail sales, unemployment rate and housing starts will be keenly watched. Meanwhile in China, investors will be looking for March's PMI updates from both the NBS and Caixin, with all forecasts pointing to an easing contraction in the country's manufacturing sector as the recent fall in new infection rate allowed many workers to return to work.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will be publishing the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting. Other key data for Australia include retail sales, building permits, and Ai Group indexes for manufacturing and construction. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include India Markit Manufacturing PMI and infrastructure output; South Korea business morale, industrial output, retail sales, foreign trade, inflation rate and Markit Manufacturing PMI; Singapore monetary policy statement; Indonesia inflation rate; and New Zealand building permits and ANZ Business Confidence.