Week Ahead

Market volatility is set to continue in the coming week, as investors monitor the rapid spread of Covid-19 and eye any fresh policy responses to stem the negative impact on the economy. On the economic data front, PMI surveys across the globe are expected to signal record pace contractions in private sector activity, with focus turning to the last updates from Italy and Spain. In addition, US non-farm payrolls are seen falling for the first time since 2013 and weekly jobless claims will likely increase by another three million, after hitting an all-time high the week before. Other important releases include US foreign trade and factory orders; UK consumer morale; Eurozone business sentiment and inflation; Japan tankan survey; and Australia retail sales.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 3/28/2020 1:33:27 PM
The US jobs report will be in the spotlight in the coming week, with markets predicting a payroll decrease of 100 thousand in March, as people lose their jobs due to the coronavirus outbreak amid efforts to contain the rapid spread of the pandemic. In addition, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is likely to point to the steepest contraction in factory activity since May 2009 and the Non-Manufacturing PMI will probably fall to a near 11-year low as many businesses are forced to close amid the Covid-19 crisis. Other notable publications are foreign trade balance, factory orders, construction spending, ADP employment change, Case-Shiller home prices, pending home sales, Chicago PMI, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index and final readings of wholesale inventories and Markit PMIs.

Elsewhere in America, key data to follow include Canada monthly GDP, trade balance and Markit Manufacturing PMI; Brazil consumer morale, jobless rate, industrial output, foreign trade and Markit PMIs; and Mexico consumer and business morale, and Markit Manufacturing PMI.

Across the Atlantic, final Markit PMIs in the UK are expected to confirm the country's private sector activity slumped by the most since at least 1998 during March, led by a record pace contraction in the service sector. At the same time, consumer morale should fall to the lowest level since July 2013 as recession fears mount. Other important releases include Bank of England's monetary indicators and final fourth-quarter GDP.

Elsewhere in Europe, investors will keep an eye on Markit PMI surveys for Italy and Spain, which will probably show the biggest drop in private sector output on record. Both countries, which have been the most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic in Europe, announced recently the highest number of new deaths from the coronavirus in the space of 24 hours since the outbreak began. Other key data include the Eurozone business survey, inflation rate, retail sales and unemployment; Germany jobless rate and retail trade; Switzerland KOF leading indicators, inflation and retail trade; Italy unemployment rate; Spain and Russia final fourth-quarter GDP data; and Turkey trade balance and consumer prices. 

In Asia, the Bank of Japan’s tankan quarterly survey will probably show a sharp deterioration in business sentiment both at manufacturers and non-manufacturers as the Covid-19 outbreak stokes fears of a global recession. In addition, the country's industrial production, retail sales, unemployment rate and housing starts will be keenly watched. Meanwhile in China, investors will be looking for March's PMI updates from both the NBS and Caixin, with all forecasts pointing to an easing contraction in the country's manufacturing sector as the recent fall in new infection rate allowed many workers to return to work.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will be publishing the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting. Other key data for Australia include retail sales, building permits, and Ai Group indexes for manufacturing and construction. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include India Markit Manufacturing PMI and infrastructure output; South Korea business morale, industrial output, retail sales, foreign trade, inflation rate and Markit Manufacturing PMI; Singapore monetary policy statement; Indonesia inflation rate; and New Zealand building permits and ANZ Business Confidence.





 


Sunday March 29 2020 Actual Previous
DE
Regional Elections
Monday March 30 2020 Actual Previous
12:00 AM
SG
Monetary Policy Statement
07:00 AM
SA
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q4 -0.3% -0.5%
07:00 AM
CH
KOF Leading Indicators MAR 92.9 101.8 ®
08:30 AM
GB
BoE Consumer Credit FEB £0.9B £1.11B ®
08:30 AM
GB
Mortgage Lending FEB £4B £4.01B
08:30 AM
GB
Mortgage Approvals FEB 73.55K 70.89K
09:00 AM
EA
Business Confidence MAR -0.28 -0.06 ®
09:00 AM
EA
Consumer Confidence Final MAR -11.6 -6.6
09:00 AM
EA
Economic Sentiment MAR 94.5 103.4 ®
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
11:30 AM
ES
Business Confidence MAR -7 -3.9 ®
12:00 PM
DE
Inflation Rate YoY Prel MAR 1.4% 1.7%
02:00 PM
US
Pending Home Sales YoY FEB 9.4% 5.8% ®
02:30 PM
US
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index MAR -70 1.2
09:00 PM
KR
Business Confidence MAR 56 65
11:01 PM
GB
Gfk Consumer Confidence MAR -9 -7
11:30 PM
JP
Unemployment Rate FEB 2.4% 2.4%
11:50 PM
JP
Retail Sales YoY FEB 1.7% -0.4%
11:50 PM
JP
Industrial Production MoM Prel FEB 0.4% 1%
Tuesday March 31 2020 Actual Previous
01:00 AM
AU
HIA New Home Sales MoM FEB 6.2% 5.7%
01:00 AM
CN
NBS Manufacturing PMI MAR 52 35.7
01:00 AM
CN
Non Manufacturing PMI MAR 52.3 29.6
05:00 AM
JP
Housing Starts YoY FEB -12.3% -10.1%
06:00 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate Harmonised FEB 3.2% 3.2%
06:00 AM
GB
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q4 1.1% 1.3% ®
06:00 AM
GB
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q4 0.0% 0.5%
06:00 AM
GB
Business Investment YoY Final Q4 1.8% 1.7% ®
06:00 AM
GB
Business Investment QoQ Final Q4 -0.5% 0.7% ®
06:00 AM
GB
Current Account Q4 £-5.6B £-19.9B ®
06:30 AM
CH
Retail Sales YoY FEB 0.3% 0.0% ®
06:45 AM
FR
Inflation Rate YoY Prel MAR 0.6% 1.4%
07:00 AM
ES
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q4 1.8% 1.9%
07:00 AM
ES
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q4 0.4% 0.4%
07:00 AM
TR
Balance of Trade FEB $-2.98B $-4.5B ®
07:55 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate MAR 5% 5%
07:55 AM
DE
Unemployment Change MAR 1K -8K ®
09:00 AM
EA
Inflation Rate YoY Flash MAR 0.7% 1.2%
09:00 AM
EA
Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash MAR 1% 1.2%
09:00 AM
EA
Inflation Rate MoM Flash MAR 0.5% 0.2%
09:00 AM
IT
Inflation Rate YoY Prel MAR 0.1% 0.3%
12:00 PM
BR
Unemployment Rate FEB 11.6% 11.2%
12:00 PM
ZA
Balance of Trade FEB ZAR 14.2B ZAR-2.7B ®
12:30 PM
CA
GDP MoM JAN 0.1% 0.3%
01:00 PM
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY JAN 3.1% 2.8% ®
01:00 PM
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM JAN 0% 0.1% ®
01:45 PM
US
Chicago PMI MAR 47.8 49
02:00 PM
US
CB Consumer Confidence MAR 120 132.6 ®
08:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 27/MAR 10.485M -1.25M
10:00 PM
AU
CommBank Manufacturing PMI Final MAR 49.7 50.2
11:00 PM
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index MAR 53.7 44.3
11:50 PM
JP
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q1 -8 0
Wednesday April 01 2020 Actual Previous
12:00 AM
KR
Balance of Trade MAR $5.04B $4.12B
12:00 AM
KR
Exports YoY MAR -0.2% 4.5%
12:30 AM
AU
Building Permits MoM FEB 19.9% -15.1% ®
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final MAR 44.2 47.8
12:30 AM
KR
Markit Manufacturing PMI MAR 44.2 48.7
01:45 AM
CN
Caixin Manufacturing PMI MAR 50.1 40.3
03:30 AM
AU
RBA Meeting Minutes
04:00 AM
ID
Inflation Rate YoY MAR 2.96% 2.98%
06:00 AM
DE
Retail Sales MoM FEB 1.2% 1% ®
06:00 AM
DE
Retail Sales YoY FEB 6.4% 2.1% ®
06:00 AM
RU
Markit Manufacturing PMI MAR 47.5 48.2
07:15 AM
ES
Markit Manufacturing PMI MAR 45.7 50.4
07:30 AM
CH
procure.ch Manufacturing PMI MAR 43.7 49.5
07:45 AM
IT
Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI MAR 40.3 48.7
07:50 AM
FR
Markit Manufacturing PMI Final MAR 43.2 49.8
07:55 AM
DE
Markit Manufacturing PMI Final MAR 45.4 48
08:00 AM
EA
Markit Manufacturing PMI Final MAR 44.5 49.2
08:00 AM
IT
Unemployment Rate FEB 9.7% 9.8%
08:30 AM
GB
Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final MAR 47.8 51.7
09:00 AM
EA
Unemployment Rate FEB 7.3% 7.4%
09:00 AM
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI MAR 48.1 44.3
12:00 PM
BR
Industrial Production MoM FEB 0.5% 1.2% ®