Week Ahead

Investors will continue to assess the impact of the rapid spread of Covid-19 on the global economy, while the FOMC meeting minutes will also dominate the news. In addition, major oil producers are expected to agree on a crude output cut on Monday, to stabilize the market, and European finance ministers are set to unveil a coordinated fiscal response to the coronavirus crisis. Elsewhere, the RBA and the BoK will be deciding on interest rates. Other important releases include the US inflation rate and Michigan consumer sentiment; UK monthly GDP and trade balance; Germany factory orders; China consumer and producer prices; Japan machinery orders, household spending and consumer morale; and Australia foreign trade.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 4/4/2020 1:33:26 PM
In the US, investor focus turns to the FOMC minutes due Wednesday on hopes it might clarify policymakers' views on the monetary policy path as the pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus continues to spread. Confirmed US cases surpassed 256,000 on Friday, with more than 6,500 deaths, most of them in New York City. The Federal Reserve has already slashed interest rates to near zero and announced more QE measures and corporate bond buying to help support the flow of credit to households and businesses. On the economic data front, the consumer price inflation is seen slowing to the lowest since June last year, while the preliminary reading of Michigan consumer sentiment is expected to point to a sharp deterioration in consumer morale during April as many Americans are in lockdown and non-essential businesses were forced to close. Other notable publications are producer prices, JOLTs job openings, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and the government's budget statement.

Elsewhere in America, the central bank of Mexico is also due to publish its monetary policy meeting minutes. Key economic data to follow include Canada employment figures, Ivey PMI and housing starts; Mexico inflation rate; and Brazil retail sales and consumer prices.

Across the Atlantic, the UK monthly GDP figures are expected to point to an economic growth of 0.1 percent during February, boosted by a small rebound in industrial production. Investors will also keep an eye on foreign trade balance, Construction PMI, Halifax House Price index and new car sales. 

Elsewhere in Europe, an Eurogroup meeting will be held on April 7th, aiming to deliver proposals to reinforce a coordinated action against Covid-19. EU leaders failed on March 26th to agree on a response and gave finance ministers two more weeks to find a solution, with France, Italy, Spain and six other European Union countries calling for a joint debt issuance and Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Austria firmly opposing it. Regarding the economic calendar, key releases include the Eurozone Construction PMI; Germany factory orders, industrial output and trade balance; Spain consumer morale; Italy industrial production and retail sales; France foreign trade; Switzerland and Turkey jobless rates; Russia, Ireland and the Netherlands inflation rates; and Poland interest rate decision.

China will be publishing consumer and producer prices, with forecasts pointing to fall in consumer inflation and a deeper producer deflation amid the fast-spreading coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile, Japan's machinery orders and household spending are seen falling sharply in February as the covid-19 hit the economy. Other important releases include consumer morale, current account, producer prices, Eco Watchers Survey and the preliminary reading of February's leading economic index. The Reserve Bank of Australia will hold its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, but no changes are expected, as the cash rate is now at its effective lower bound after a second emergency meeting in a bid to shield the economy from the impact of the coronavirus. Traders will turn their attention to Ai Group services index, trade balance, home loans and ANZ job ads.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: South Korea interest rate decision; India Markit Services PMI; Thailand consumer prices; Taiwan inflation rate and foreign trade; Indonesia consumer sentiment; Malaysia industria output; and the Philippines trade balance, industrial output and consumer prices. 





 


Sunday April 05 2020 Actual Previous
11:01 PM
GB
Gfk Consumer Confidence MAR -34 -9
Monday April 06 2020 Actual Previous
05:20 AM
JP
Consumer Confidence MAR 30.9 38.4
06:00 AM
DE
Factory Orders MoM FEB -1.4% 4.8% ®
07:30 AM
DE
Construction PMI MAR 42 55.8
08:30 AM
GB
Construction PMI MAR 39.3 52.6
10:30 AM
ES
Consumer Confidence MAR 63.3 85.7
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
01:00 PM
RU
Inflation Rate YoY MAR 2.5% 2.3%
10:30 PM
AU
Ai Group Services Index MAR 38.7 47.0
Tuesday April 07 2020 Actual Previous
01:00 AM
PH
Inflation Rate YoY MAR 2.5% 2.6%
01:30 AM
AU
Balance of Trade FEB A$4.36B A$4.74B ®
04:30 AM
AU
Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
04:30 AM
NL
Inflation Rate YoY MAR 1.4% 1.6%
05:45 AM
CH
Unemployment Rate MAR 2.9% 2.5%
06:00 AM
DE
Industrial Production MoM FEB 0.3% 3.2% ®
06:45 AM
FR
Balance of Trade FEB €-5.2B €-6B ®
07:30 AM
GB
Halifax House Price Index MoM MAR 0% 0.2% ®
07:30 AM
GB
Halifax House Price Index YoY MAR 3% 2.8%
08:00 AM
IT
Retail Sales MoM FEB 0.8% 0.1% ®
11:00 AM
MX
Inflation Rate YoY MAR 3.25% 3.7%
12:00 PM
BR
Retail Sales MoM FEB 1.2% -1%
02:00 PM
CA
Ivey PMI s.a MAR 26 54.1
02:00 PM
US
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism APR 47.8 53.9
02:00 PM
US
JOLTs Job Openings FEB 6.882M 7.012M
08:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 03/APR 11.938M 10.485M
11:50 PM
JP
Current Account FEB ¥3168.8B ¥612.3B ®
11:50 PM
JP
Machinery Orders MoM FEB 2.3% 2.9%
11:50 PM
JP
Machinery Orders YoY FEB -2.4% -0.3%
EA
Eurogroup Meeting
Wednesday April 08 2020 Actual Previous
11:40 AM
PL
Interest Rate Decision 0.5% 1%
12:15 PM
CA
Housing Starts MAR 195K 210K
02:30 PM
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change 03/APR 0.476M -2.194M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 03/APR 10.497M 7.524M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 03/APR 15.177M 13.834M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change 03/APR 6.417M 3.521M
03:00 PM
MX
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
05:00 PM
US
30-Year Bond Auction 1.325% 1.320%
06:00 PM
US
FOMC Minutes
Thursday April 09 2020 Actual Previous
01:00 AM
KR
Interest Rate Decision 0.75% 0.75%
01:30 AM
AU
RBA Financial Stability Review
06:00 AM
DE
Balance of Trade FEB €20.8B €13.8B ®
06:00 AM
GB
Balance of Trade FEB £-2.8B £2.4B ®
06:00 AM
GB
GDP 3-Month Avg FEB 0.1% 0%
06:00 AM
GB
Manufacturing Production YoY FEB -3.9% -3.7% ®
06:00 AM
GB
Construction Output YoY FEB -2.7% 0.5% ®
06:00 AM
GB
Industrial Production YoY FEB -2.8% -2.8% ®
06:00 AM
GB
Industrial Production MoM FEB 0.1% 0.2% ®
08:00 AM
IT
Industrial Production MoM FEB -1.2% 3.6% ®
10:00 AM
IE
Inflation Rate YoY MAR 0.7% 1.1%
11:30 AM
EA
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
12:00 PM
BR
Inflation Rate YoY MAR 3.3% 4.01%
12:00 PM
IN
Industrial Production YoY FEB 4.5% 2.1% ®
12:00 PM
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY FEB 3.2% 1.6% ®
12:30 PM
CA
Full Time Employment Chg MAR -474K 37.6K
12:30 PM
CA
Employment Change MAR -1010.7K 30.3K
12:30 PM
CA
Unemployment Rate MAR 7.8% 5.6%
12:30 PM
CA
Participation Rate MAR 63.5% 65.5%
12:30 PM
CA
Part Time Employment Chg MAR -536.7K -7.3K
12:30 PM
US
Initial Jobless Claims 04/APR 6606K 6867K ®
12:30 PM
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average 04/APR 4265.5K 2666.75K ®
12:30 PM
US
PPI MoM MAR -0.2% -0.6%
02:00 PM
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM FEB -0.7% -0.6% ®
02:00 PM
US
Fed Chair Powell Speech
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel APR 70 79.7
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Current Conditions Prel APR 72.4 103.7
02:00 PM
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel APR 2.5% 2.3%
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel APR 2.1% 2.2%
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel APR 71.0 89.1
SA
OPEC+ Meeting
EA
Eurogroup Meeting
Friday April 10 2020 Actual Previous
01:30 AM
CN
Inflation Rate YoY MAR 4.3% 5.2%
01:30 AM
CN
Inflation Rate MoM MAR -1.2% 0.8%
01:30 AM
CN
PPI YoY MAR -1.5% -0.4%
06:45 AM
FR
Industrial Production MoM FEB 0.9% 1.1% ®
07:00 AM
TR
Unemployment Rate JAN 13.8% 13.7%
12:00 PM
SA
G20 Energy Ministers Meeting
12:30 PM
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY MAR 2.1% 2.4%