Week Ahead

Investors will continue to monitor the spread and impact of Covid-19 on the global economy, amid hopes that the pandemic is peaking in some parts of Europe and in North America. In addition, the first-quarter earnings season starts next week, with focus turning to reports from major health care companies and banks. On the economic data front, important releases to follow include US retail sales and industrial production; Eurozone industrial output; China Q1 GDP figures; Australia employment data, business and consumer morale; and India consumer and wholesale prices. Central banks in Canada and Indonesia will be deciding on interest rates, while South Korea will hold a general election.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 4/10/2020 3:49:46 PM
In the US, retail sales and industrial production numbers for March will provide an insight into the early impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the world's largest economy, with forecasts pointing to a record fall in trade and to the steepest decline in output since September 2008. Other notable publications are housing starts and building permits, as well as foreign trade prices, business inventories, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, NAHB Housing Market Index and the weekly jobless report.

Meanwhile, the first-quarter earnings season will kick off next week, starting with reports from health care companies such as Johnson & Johnson and Abbott, and major banks including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Bank of America.

Elsewhere in America, the Bank of Canada will decide on interest rates and publish its Monetary Policy Report on Wednesday. Also, key economic data to follow include Canada ADP employment change and manufacturing sales; Brazil monthly economic activity; and Argentina inflation rate.

Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England will release its first-quarter credit conditions survey. Elsewhere, the Eurozone consumer price report will probably confirm the inflation rate in March slowed to its lowest level in five months and well below the ECB's target of just below 2 percent, amid the Covid-19 outbreak and an oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Investors will also keep an eye on the bloc's industrial and construction output; Italy foreign trade; Germany wholesale prices; Sweden inflation rate; the Netherlands unemployment rate; Switzerland producer and import prices; and Turkey retail sales, industrial activity and current account.

In Asia, all eyes are on China's first-quarter GDP figures, with forecasts pointing to the sharpest pace of contraction since at least 1989 as the Covid-19 pandemic hit the economy. The country’s trade balance will also be in the spotlight, with markets expecting a fall in both exports and imports. Other important releases include foreign direct investment, industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment and house price index. Meanwhile in Japan, investors will focus on February’s final reading of industrial production, tertiary industry index and Reuters Tankan index. Australia will be publishing employment figures, NAB business confidence and Westpac consumer confidence. 

South Korea will hold a general election on Wednesday, with President Moon Jae-in's left-leaning Democratic Party leading in the opinion polls in part due to the government's handling of the coronavirus pandemic. The country's unemployment rate and foreign trade prices will also be in the spotlight.

The Reserve Bank of India will be releasing the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting. On the economic front, key data for India includes consumer and wholesale prices and trade balance. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: Indonesia interest rate decision and trade balance; Singapore non-oil exports; and New Zealand business NZ PMI.

Market players will also react to OPEC's monthly report and IEA's oil market report.





 


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Friday April 10 2020 Actual Previous
01:30 AM
CN
Inflation Rate YoY MAR 4.3% 5.2%
01:30 AM
CN
Inflation Rate MoM MAR -1.2% 0.8%
01:30 AM
CN
PPI YoY MAR -1.5% -0.4%
06:45 AM
FR
Industrial Production MoM FEB 0.9% 1.1% ®
07:00 AM
TR
Unemployment Rate JAN 13.8% 13.7%
12:00 PM
SA
G20 Energy Ministers Meeting
12:30 PM
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY MAR 2.1% 2.4%
12:30 PM
US
Inflation Rate YoY MAR 1.5% 2.3%
12:30 PM
US
Inflation Rate MoM MAR -0.4% 0.1%
12:30 PM
US
Core Inflation Rate MoM MAR -0.1% 0.2%
01:00 PM
RU
Foreign Exchange Reserves MAR $563.5B $570.4B
04:30 PM
US
Fed Mester Speech
05:15 PM
US
Fed Quarles Speech
06:00 PM
US
Monthly Budget Statement MAR $-119B $-235B
Monday April 13 2020 Actual Previous
05:30 AM
IN
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
12:00 PM
IN
Inflation Rate YoY MAR 5.91% 6.58%
Tuesday April 14 2020 Actual Previous
01:30 AM
AU
NAB Business Confidence MAR -66 -4
03:30 AM
CN
Balance of Trade MAR $19.9B $-7.09B
03:30 AM
CN
Exports YoY MAR -6.6% -17.2%
03:30 AM
CN
Imports YoY MAR -0.9% -4%
04:00 AM
MY
Unemployment Rate FEB 3.3% 3.2%
04:30 AM
IN
Prime Minister Narendra Modi Speech
08:10 AM
ID
Interest Rate Decision 4.50% 4.50%
09:00 AM
ZA
Interest Rate Decision 4.25% 5.25%
12:30 PM
US
Import Prices YoY MAR -4.1% -1.2%
12:30 PM
US
Import Prices MoM MAR -2.3% -0.7% ®
12:30 PM
US
Export Prices YoY MAR -3.6% -1.3%
12:30 PM
US
Export Prices MoM MAR -1.6% -1.1%
03:05 PM
US
Fed Bullard Speech
04:30 PM
US
Fed Evans Speech
08:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 10/APR 13.143M 11.938M
US
G7 Video Conference Meeting
Wednesday April 15 2020 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index APR 75.6 91.9
12:30 AM
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change APR -17.7% -3.8% ®
04:00 AM
ID
Balance of Trade MAR $0.74B $2.51B ®
06:45 AM
FR
Inflation Rate YoY Final MAR 0.7% 1.4%
07:30 AM
SE
CPIF YoY MAR 0.6% 1%
07:30 AM
SE
Inflation Rate MoM MAR -0.2% 0.5%
08:00 AM
FR
IEA Oil Market Report
08:00 AM
IT
Inflation Rate YoY Final MAR 0.1% 0.3%
09:30 AM
CH
Consumer Confidence Q2 -40 -9.4
12:30 PM
IN
Balance of Trade MAR $-9.76B $-9.85B
12:30 PM
US
Retail Sales MoM MAR -8.7% -0.4% ®
12:30 PM
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM MAR -4.5% -0.4%
12:30 PM
US
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index APR -78.2 -21.5
01:15 PM
US
Industrial Production YoY MAR -5.5% 0%
01:15 PM
US
Industrial Production MoM MAR -5.4% 0.5% ®
02:00 PM
CA
BoC Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
02:00 PM
US
NAHB Housing Market Index APR 30 72
02:00 PM
US
Business Inventories MoM FEB -0.4% -0.3% ®
02:30 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 10/APR 4.914M 10.497M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change 10/APR 6.28M 0.476M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 10/APR 19.248M 15.177M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change 10/APR 5.724M 6.417M
05:00 PM
US
Fed Bostic Speech
08:00 PM
US
Net Long-Term Tic Flows FEB $49.4B $21.8B ®
08:00 PM
US
Foreign Bond Investment FEB $4.9B $25.6B
08:00 PM
US
Overall Net Capital Flows FEB $-13.4B $127.3B ®
SA
G20 Video Conference Meeting
CN
FDI (YTD) YoY MAR -10.8% -8.6%
Thursday April 16 2020 Actual Previous
01:30 AM
AU
Employment Change MAR 5.9K 25.6K ®
01:30 AM
AU
Full Time Employment Chg MAR -0.4K 5.5K ®
01:30 AM
AU
Unemployment Rate MAR 5.2% 5.1%
01:30 AM
CN
House Price Index YoY MAR 5.3% 5.8%
04:30 AM
NL
Unemployment Rate MAR 2.9% 2.9%
06:00 AM
DE
Inflation Rate YoY Final MAR 1.4% 1.7%
06:00 AM
DE
Wholesale Prices YoY MAR -1.5% -0.9%
06:00 AM
DE
Wholesale Prices MoM MAR -0.4% -0.9%
06:00 AM
PH
Interest Rate Decision 2.75% 3.25%
08:30 AM
GB
Credit Conditions Survey
09:00 AM
EA
Industrial Production MoM FEB -0.1% 2.3%
09:00 AM
EA
Industrial Production YoY FEB -1.9% -1.7% ®
12:30 PM
US