Week Ahead

The coronavirus will continue to dominate the headlines as well as the first-quarter earnings season, with nearly 500 US companies reporting their results and updating guidance on full-year expectations. Elsewhere, flash PMI surveys for the US, UK, Eurozone, Japan and Australia will be keenly watched, while central banks in China, Russia and Turkey are seen cutting interest rates to help mitigate the negative impact of the pandemic on their economies. Other key data to follow include: US durable goods orders, existing and new home sales; UK inflation, retail trade and business optimism; Eurozone consumer morale; Japan trade balance and inflation; and South Korea Q1 GDP figures.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 4/18/2020 12:10:42 PM
The Markit PMI survey for the US is set to highlight the damage from the coronavirus outbreak on the world's largest economy, with forecasts suggesting the private sector activity contracted at a record pace in April. In addition, the March durable goods orders report will probably show the steepest fall in demand for US manufactured goods since August 2014, while the final reading of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is expected to come in even weaker than initially thought. Other notable publications include existing and new home sales, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and the weekly jobless report.

On the corporate front, the first-quarter earnings season continues, with around 500 US companies publishing their results and updating guidance on full-year expectations. Earnings reports to watch include Amazon, American Airlines, American Express, AT&T, Boeing, Coca-Cola, Delta Air Lines, Eli Lilly and Co., IBM, Intel, Netflix, PayPal, Philip Morris Inc, Procter & Gamble, Snap, Texas Instruments, Union Pacific, Verizon, Visa and 3M.

Elsewhere in America, key economic data to follow include Canada retail trade, inflation and new housing prices, Mexico retail sales and economic activity, and Brazil business confidence and current account.

Across the Atlantic, the UK will be publishing flash Markit PMIs, inflation data, retail trade, unemployment rate, public sector net borrowing and CBI gauges for factory orders and business optimism. The PMI survey should point to a record deterioration in private sector business conditions during April due to the coronavirus pandemic, while March's retail sales will most likely post their biggest monthly decline since the series began in 1996.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone's flash Markit PMIs are seen pointing to the steepest contraction in the bloc’s manufacturing sector for 11 years and the sharpest fall ever in service activity, as several countries in the region stepped up business closures and social distancing measures in April. Other key economic data include: the Eurozone flash consumer confidence, trade balance and current account; Germany investor, business and consumer morale; France business confidence; Spain foreign trade; and Italy factory orders. Also, central banks in Russia and Turkey are expected to slash interest rates when they meet next week.

The People's Bank of China will provide an update on its new loan prime rate (LPR) on Monday, which was set at 4.05 percent on March 20th amid widespread disruptions to businesses and activity from the coronavirus crisis. In Japan, important releases include flash Jibun Bank PMIs, trade balance and inflation data, while in South Korea investors will turn their attention to the advance estimate of first-quarter GDP.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will be releasing the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting. On the economic data front, investors will focus on CommBank flash PMIs amid lockdowns and business closures due to the pandemic. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: New Zealand first-quarter inflation rate and Services NZ PSI; Thailand trade balance; Singapore inflation, jobless rate and industrial output; and Malaysia inflation rate.





 


Sunday April 19 2020 Actual Previous
10:00 AM
IL
GDP Growth Rate QoQ 3rd Est Q4 1.1% 1.0%
11:50 PM
JP
Balance of Trade MAR ¥4.9B ¥1108.8B ®
11:50 PM
JP
Exports YoY MAR -11.7% -1%
Monday April 20 2020 Actual Previous
01:30 AM
CN
Loan Prime Rate 1Y 3.85% 4.05%
01:30 AM
CN
Loan Prime Rate 5Y APR 4.65% 4.75%
06:00 AM
DE
PPI MoM MAR -0.8% -0.4%
08:00 AM
PL
Employment Growth YoY MAR 0.3% 1.1%
09:00 AM
EA
Balance of Trade FEB €23B €1.3B
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
12:30 PM
US
Chicago Fed National Activity Index MAR -4.19 0.06 ®
GB
UK-EU Brexit Talks
Tuesday April 21 2020 Actual Previous
01:30 AM
AU
RBA Meeting Minutes
04:00 AM
TH
Balance of Trade MAR $1.59B $3.9B
05:00 AM
AU
RBA Gov Lowe Speech
06:00 AM
CH
Balance of Trade MAR CHF3.2B CHF2B ®
06:00 AM
GB
Claimant Count Change MAR 12.2K 5.9K ®
06:00 AM
GB
Average Earnings excl. Bonus FEB 2.9% 3.1%
06:00 AM
GB
Average Earnings incl. Bonus FEB 2.8% 3.1%
06:00 AM
GB
Unemployment Rate FEB 4% 3.9%
06:00 AM
GB
Employment Change JAN 172K 184K
07:30 AM
NG
Inflation Rate YoY MAR 12.26% 12.2%
07:30 AM
SE
Unemployment Rate MAR 7.1% 8.2%
08:00 AM
ES
Balance of Trade FEB €-2.12B €-3.51B
09:00 AM
EA
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index APR 25.2 -49.5
09:00 AM
DE
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index APR 28.2 -49.5
12:30 PM
CA
Retail Sales MoM FEB 0.3% 0.6% ®
02:00 PM
US
Existing Home Sales MoM MAR -8.5% 6.3% ®
02:00 PM
US
Existing Home Sales MAR 5.27M 5.76M ®
07:00 PM
MX
Interest Rate Decision 6% 6.5%
08:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 17/APR 13.226M 13.143M
GB
UK-EU Brexit Talks
Wednesday April 22 2020 Actual Previous
04:00 AM
MY
Inflation Rate YoY MAR -0.2% 1.3%
04:30 AM
NL
Consumer Confidence APR -22.0 -2
06:00 AM
GB
Inflation Rate YoY MAR 1.5% 1.7%
06:00 AM
GB
Core Inflation Rate YoY MAR 1.6% 1.7%
06:00 AM
GB
Inflation Rate MoM MAR 0% 0.4%
07:00 AM
TR
Consumer Confidence APR 54.9 58.2 ®
08:00 AM
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY MAR 4.1% 4.6%
09:00 AM
EA
Government Budget to GDP 2019 -0.6% -0.5%
09:00 AM
EA
Government Debt to GDP 2019 84.1% 85.8% ®
10:00 AM
GB
Parliamentary Debate
11:00 AM
TR
TCMB Interest Rate Decision 8.75% 9.75%
12:30 PM
CA
Inflation Rate YoY MAR 0.9% 2.2%
12:30 PM
CA
Core Inflation Rate YoY MAR 1.7% 1.8%
12:30 PM
CA
New Housing Price Index MoM MAR 0.3% 0.4%
12:30 PM
CA
New Housing Price Index YoY MAR 0.9% 0.6%
12:30 PM
CA
Inflation Rate MoM MAR -0.6% 0.4%
02:00 PM
EA
Consumer Confidence Flash APR -22.7 -11.6
02:30 PM
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change 17/APR 7.876M 6.28M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 17/APR 1.017M 4.914M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 17/APR 15.022M 19.248M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change 17/APR 4.776M 5.724M
11:00 PM
AU
CommBank Services PMI Flash APR 19.6 38.5
11:00 PM
AU
CommBank Manufacturing PMI Flash APR 45.6