Week Ahead

The US earnings season continues next week, with companies such as Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Facebook reporting their first-quarter results and updating guidance on full-year expectations amid the coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile, central bank policy meetings in the US, Eurozone and Japan will be keenly watched as well as GDP data for the US and Eurozone and PMI survey for China. Other key economic data include US personal income and outlays, ISM Manufacturing PMI and construction spending; Eurozone business survey and inflation; Japan consumer confidence and industrial output; and Australia inflation data.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 4/25/2020 10:31:14 AM
In the US, Federal Reserve policymakers are seen holding interest rates at current levels when they meet on Wednesday, with all eyes on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference and the latest FOMC economic projections for further details about future policy steps. In March, officials lowered the target range for its federal funds rate by 150bps to 0-0.25 percent and launched a massive quantitative easing program in an attempt to support the economy amid the coronavirus outbreak. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Economic Analysis' GDP figures will probably show the US economy contracted 4 percent during the first quarter, amid efforts to contain the rapid spread of the pandemic. Other notable publications include: personal income and outlays; PCE price index; ISM Manufacturing PMI; construction spending; first-quarter employment cost index; CB consumer confidence; pending home sales; Case-Shiller home prices; Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index; Chicago PMI; and the advance estimates of goods trade balance and wholesale inventories.

Investors will also be closely monitoring the busiest week of the earnings season, with focus turning to reports from big firms including Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Spotify, Twitter, Qualcomm, Pfizer, Merck, Tesla, Ford, Boeing, Pepsi, Starbucks, McDonald’s and Caterpillar. Top US oil producers Exxon Mobil and Chevron will also report first-quarter financial results.

Elsewhere in America, important data to follow include Canada monthly GDP and Markit Manufacturing PMI; Mexico first-quarter GDP, unemployment and trade balance; and Brazil jobless rate.

In the UK, the Bank of England will be publishing its monetary indicators, while the CBI releases its gauge for distributive trades. Elsewhere in Europe, the ECB will be deciding on monetary policy in a week that will see the publication of preliminary first-quarter GDP estimates for the Eurozone, including releases for France, Spain and Italy. The bloc's economy is seen contracting at a record pace during the first quarter as the Covid-19 pandemic forced governments across the region to impose strict measures to contain the outbreak. Investors will also keep an eye on the Eurozone business survey, inflation rate and unemployment; Germany and Spain retail sales and jobless rates; France jobless benefit claims and consumer morale; Italy unemployment; Switzerland KOF leading indicators and retail trade; Sweden's interest rate decision; and Turkey trade balance.

In China, the NBS PMI survey will probably point to a slowdown in factory output growth due to the coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan will hold its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, but no changes are expected. Investors in Japan will also turn their attention to March’s preliminary industrial production, retail sales, consumer confidence, unemployment rate, housing starts, and Tokyo inflation rate.

In Australia, the Ai Group will be releasing its factory index. Other important data include first-quarter consumer and producer prices, private sector credit, and HIA new home sales. Traders in South Korea will focus on consumer and business confidence, trade balance, industrial production and retail sales.

Other key data for the Asia-Pacific region include: New Zealand trade balance, ANZ business confidence and ANZ Roy Morgan consumer confidence; Taiwan first-quarter GDP advance estimate; Hong Kong foreign trade; Thailand industrial output; Vietnam industrial production and trade balance; and Singapore first-quarter unemployment rate.





 


Friday April 24 2020 Actual Previous
06:00 AM
NO
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1 -1.5% 1.5% ®
06:00 AM
NO
GDP Growth Mainland QoQ Prel Q1 -1.9% 0.1% ®
06:00 AM
GB
Retail Sales MoM MAR -5.1% -0.3%
06:00 AM
GB
Retail Sales YoY MAR -5.8% 0%
07:00 AM
TR
Business Confidence APR 66.8 99.7
07:00 AM
TR
Capacity Utilization APR 61.6% 75.3%
08:00 AM
DE
Ifo Business Climate APR 74.3 85.9 ®
08:00 AM
PL
Unemployment Rate MAR 5.4% 5.5%
10:30 AM
RU
Interest Rate Decision 5.5% 6%
12:00 PM
RU
CBR Press Conference
12:30 PM
BR
Business Confidence APR 34.5 60.3
12:30 PM
US
Durable Goods Orders MoM MAR -14.4% 1.1% ®
12:30 PM
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM MAR -0.2% -0.7% ®
01:00 PM
RU
Unemployment Rate MAR 4.7% 4.6%
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations Final APR 70.1 79.7
02:00 PM
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final APR 2.5% 2.3%
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Current Conditions Final APR 74.3 103.7
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations Final APR 2.1% 2.2%
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final APR 71.8 89.1
GB
UK-EU Brexit Talks
Saturday April 25 2020 Actual Previous
DE
CDU Congress
Monday April 27 2020 Actual Previous
04:00 AM
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.1% -0.1%
04:30 AM
JP
BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report
10:00 AM
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims MAR 243K -21.7K ®
11:00 AM
MX
Unemployment Rate MAR 2.9% 3.6%
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
02:30 PM
US
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index APR -73.7 -70
09:00 PM
KR
Consumer Confidence APR 70.8 78.4
11:30 PM
JP
Unemployment Rate MAR 2.5% 2.4%
Tuesday April 28 2020 Actual Previous
06:45 AM
FR
Consumer Confidence APR 95 103
07:00 AM
KR
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
07:00 AM
ES
Unemployment Rate Q1 14.41% 13.78% ®
07:30 AM
SE
Riksbank Rate Decision 0% 0%
07:30 AM
SE
Monetary Policy Report
10:00 AM
GB
CBI Distributive Trades APR -55 -3
11:00 AM
MX
Balance of Trade MAR $3.392B $2.911B
12:30 PM
US
Goods Trade Balance Adv MAR $-64.22B $-59.89B
12:30 PM
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv MAR -1% -0.6% ®
01:00 PM
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM FEB 0.5% 0%
01:00 PM
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY FEB 3.5% 3.1%
02:00 PM
US
CB Consumer Confidence APR 86.9 118.8 ®
08:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 24/APR 10M 13.226M
09:00 PM
KR
Business Confidence APR 52 56
Wednesday April 29 2020 Actual Previous
01:30 AM
AU
Inflation Rate YoY Q1 2.2% 1.8%
01:30 AM
AU
Inflation Rate QoQ Q1 0.3% 0.7%
06:30 AM
SG
Unemployment Rate Prel Q1 2.4% 2.3%
09:00 AM
EA
Consumer Confidence Final APR -22.7 -11.6
09:00 AM
EA
Economic Sentiment APR 67.0 94.2 ®
09:25 AM
EA
Business Confidence APR -1.81 -0.28
11:00 AM
ES
Business Confidence APR -35.1 -7.1 ®
12:00 PM
DE
Inflation Rate YoY Prel APR 0.8% 1.4%
12:30 PM
US
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q1 -4.8% 2.1%
12:30 PM
US
GDP Price Index QoQ Adv Q1 1.4% 1.4%
02:00 PM
US
Pending Home Sales YoY MAR -16.3% 9.3% ®
02:30 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 24/APR -3.669M 1.017M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change 24/APR 5.092M 7.876M
02:30 PM