The US jobs report will be in the spotlight in the coming week, with job losses seen at 21 million during April as businesses cut back or closed completely to contain the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. The unemployment rate is expected to jump to 16 percent, the highest level since 1939. Meanwhile, factory orders are seen plunging 9.8 percent in March led by a decline in demand for transport equipment. Other notable publications are ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, foreign trade balance, first-quarter nonfarm productivity, ADP employment change, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, and final readings of wholesale inventories and Markit Services PMI.
The first-quarter earnings season continues next week, with a diverse group of companies reporting such as AIG, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Bristol-Myers Squibb, CVS Health, DuPont, General Motors, PayPal, Walt Disney, Western Asset Mortgage and Uber.
Elsewhere in America, key data to follow include Canada employment figures, Ivey PMI, trade balance and housing starts; Mexico inflation rate, consumer and business morale, and Markit Manufacturing PMI; and Brazil inflation rate, industrial output, foreign trade and Markit PMIs. The central bank of Brazil will probably slash interest rates by 50bps when it meets on Wednesday as the real hit a fresh record low against the dollar and as the coronavirus crisis deepened.
Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England will meet to deliver its latest policy decision on Thursday, but no changes are expected as policymakers take a wait-and-see approach to monetary policy after delivering two emergency cuts in March, to support the economy amid the Covid-19 outbreak. Other important releases include flash Gfk Consumer Confidence, Construction PMI, Halifax house price index and the final reading of Markit Services PMI.
Elsewhere in Europe, investors will keep an eye on Markit PMI surveys for Italy and Spain, which will probably show the biggest drop in private sector output on record. Other key data include the Eurozone retail sales and Construction PMI; Germany factory orders, industrial output and trade balance; France industrial activity and foreign trade; Switzerland inflation and jobless rate; Italy retail trade; Spain registered unemployment and consumer sentiment; Sweden first-quarter GDP figures; and Turkey consumer and producer prices. Norges Bank will be deciding on monetary policy on Thursday.
In Asia, all eyes are on China's trade figures, with markets expecting a 12.1 percent fall in exports and a 12.4 percent drop in imports as the Covid-19 outbreak disrupted activity across the world. Also, the Caixin Services PMI for April will provide an insight into the impact of the pandemic on the economy. Meanwhile in Japan, important data to be followed include household spending and the final reading of Jibun Bank Services PMI.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will hold its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, but no changes are expected as the cash rate is at its effective lower bound and policymakers are not considering negative rates. On the economic data front, investors will turn their attention to Ai Group Services and Construction indexes, trade balance, building permits, ANZ job ads and the final readings of retail sales and CommBank Services PMI. Across the Tasman Sea, New Zealand will release first-quarter unemployment and building permits.
Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include first-quarter GDP figures for Indonesia, Hong Kong and the Philippines, alongside India's Markit PMI surveys, South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines inflation data, and Malaysia unemployment rate. Bank Negara Malaysia is likely to cut interest rates by 50bps when it meets on Tuesday.