Week Ahead

The US earnings season continues next week with over 1,300 companies reporting first-quarter results. On the economic data front, US non-farm payrolls are seen falling by 21 million in April and the jobless rate will likely jump to its highest since 1939 as the coronavirus pandemic hit the economy. Elsewhere, central bank policy meetings in the UK, Australia and Brazil will be in the spotlight as well as worldwide manufacturing and services PMIs. Other releases include trade figures for the US and China and GDP data for Hong Kong, Indonesia and the Philippines.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 5/2/2020 11:12:54 AM
The US jobs report will be in the spotlight in the coming week, with job losses seen at 21 million during April as businesses cut back or closed completely to contain the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. The unemployment rate is expected to jump to 16 percent, the highest level since 1939. Meanwhile, factory orders are seen plunging 9.8 percent in March led by a decline in demand for transport equipment. Other notable publications are ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, foreign trade balance, first-quarter nonfarm productivity, ADP employment change, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, and final readings of wholesale inventories and Markit Services PMI.

The first-quarter earnings season continues next week, with a diverse group of companies reporting such as AIG, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Bristol-Myers Squibb, CVS Health, DuPont, General Motors, PayPal, Walt Disney, Western Asset Mortgage and Uber.

Elsewhere in America, key data to follow include Canada employment figures, Ivey PMI, trade balance and housing starts; Mexico inflation rate, consumer and business morale, and Markit Manufacturing PMI; and Brazil inflation rate, industrial output, foreign trade and Markit PMIs. The central bank of Brazil will probably slash interest rates by 50bps when it meets on Wednesday as the real hit a fresh record low against the dollar and as the coronavirus crisis deepened.

Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England will meet to deliver its latest policy decision on Thursday, but no changes are expected as policymakers take a wait-and-see approach to monetary policy after delivering two emergency cuts in March, to support the economy amid the Covid-19 outbreak. Other important releases include flash Gfk Consumer Confidence, Construction PMI, Halifax house price index and the final reading of Markit Services PMI.

Elsewhere in Europe, investors will keep an eye on Markit PMI surveys for Italy and Spain, which will probably show the biggest drop in private sector output on record. Other key data include the Eurozone retail sales and Construction PMI; Germany factory orders, industrial output and trade balance; France industrial activity and foreign trade; Switzerland inflation and jobless rate; Italy retail trade; Spain registered unemployment and consumer sentiment; Sweden first-quarter GDP figures; and Turkey consumer and producer prices. Norges Bank will be deciding on monetary policy on Thursday.

In Asia, all eyes are on China's trade figures, with markets expecting a 12.1 percent fall in exports and a 12.4 percent drop in imports as the Covid-19 outbreak disrupted activity across the world. Also, the Caixin Services PMI for April will provide an insight into the impact of the pandemic on the economy. Meanwhile in Japan, important data to be followed include household spending and the final reading of Jibun Bank Services PMI.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will hold its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, but no changes are expected as the cash rate is at its effective lower bound and policymakers are not considering negative rates. On the economic data front, investors will turn their attention to Ai Group Services and Construction indexes, trade balance, building permits, ANZ job ads and the final readings of retail sales and CommBank Services PMI. Across the Tasman Sea, New Zealand will release first-quarter unemployment and building permits.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include first-quarter GDP figures for Indonesia, Hong Kong and the Philippines, alongside India's Markit PMI surveys, South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines inflation data, and Malaysia unemployment rate. Bank Negara Malaysia is likely to cut interest rates by 50bps when it meets on Tuesday. 





 


Sunday May 03 2020 Actual Previous
11:00 PM
KR
Inflation Rate YoY APR 0.1% 1%
Monday May 04 2020 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
KR
Markit Manufacturing PMI APR 41.6 44.2
01:30 AM
AU
Building Permits MoM MAR -4% 19.4% ®
04:00 AM
ID
Inflation Rate YoY APR 2.67% 2.96%
05:00 AM
IN
Markit Manufacturing PMI APR 27.4 51.8
07:00 AM
TR
Inflation Rate YoY APR 10.94% 11.86%
07:15 AM
ES
Markit Manufacturing PMI APR 30.8 45.7
07:30 AM
CH
procure.ch Manufacturing PMI APR 40.7 43.7
07:45 AM
IT
Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI APR 31.1 40.3
07:50 AM
FR
Markit Manufacturing PMI Final APR 31.5 43.2
07:55 AM
DE
Markit Manufacturing PMI Final APR 34.5 45.4
08:00 AM
EA
Markit Manufacturing PMI Final APR 33.4 44.5
08:30 AM
HK
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv Q1 -8.9% -3.0% ®
08:30 AM
HK
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q1 -5.3% -0.5% ®
09:00 AM
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI APR 46.1 48.1
11:00 AM
MX
Business Confidence APR 37.4 43.5 ®
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
02:00 PM
US
Factory Orders MoM MAR -10.3% -0.1% ®
04:30 PM
CA
BoC Wilkins Speech
06:00 PM
BR
Balance of Trade APR $6.7B $4.71B
11:00 PM
AU
CommBank Services PMI Final APR 19.5 38.5
Tuesday May 05 2020 Actual Previous
01:00 AM
PH
Inflation Rate YoY APR 2.2% 2.5%
04:00 AM
ID
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1 2.97% 4.97%
04:00 AM
ID
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q1 -2.41% -1.74%
04:30 AM
AU
RBA Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
05:45 AM
CH
Consumer Confidence Final Q2 -39.3 -9.4
06:30 AM
CH
Inflation Rate YoY APR -1.1% -0.5%
07:00 AM
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
07:00 AM
MY
Interest Rate Decision 2.0% 2.50%
07:00 AM
ES
Unemployment Change APR 282.9K 302.3K
07:30 AM
SE
GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash Q1 0.5% 0.7% ®
07:30 AM
SE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q1 -0.3% 0.1% ®
08:00 AM
DE
Bundesbank Weidmann Speech
08:20 AM
DE
Bundesbank Wuermeling Speech
08:30 AM
GB
Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Final APR 13.4 34.5
08:40 AM
EA
ECB Mersch Speech
10:45 AM
ES
Consumer Confidence APR 49.9 63.3
12:00 PM
BR
Industrial Production MoM MAR -9.1% 0.7% ®
12:30 PM
CA
Balance of Trade MAR C$-1.41B C$-0.89B ®
12:30 PM
US
Balance of Trade MAR $-44.4B $-39.8B ®
01:45 PM
US
Markit Services PMI Final APR 26.7 39.8
01:45 PM
US
Markit Composite PMI Final APR 27.0 40.9
02:00 PM
US
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism MAY 49.7 47.8
02:00 PM
US
Fed Evans Speech