Week Ahead

Investors will continue to monitor the impact of COVID-19 on the global economy, with focus turning to US and China retail trade, industrial output and inflation data; UK, Germany and Netherlands first-quarter GDP figures; Eurozone industrial production; Australia employment figures, business and consumer morale; and India inflation and industrial activity. Central banks in New Zealand and Mexico will be deciding on monetary policy.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 5/10/2020 9:30:55 AM
It will be a busy week in the US with retail sales and industrial production numbers for April pointing to a record decline in trade and activity due to the coronavirus outbreak. In addition, the preliminary reading of Michigan consumer sentiment for May will likely be at the weakest level November 2011, while April's inflation rate is seen slowing to the lowest level since October 2015. Other impotant publications are producer and foreign trade prices, business inventories, JOLTs job openings, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, overall capital flows, the government's monthly budget statement and the weekly jobless report.

Elsewhere in America, the central bank of Mexico will be deciding on monetary policy on Thursday, following an emergency rate cut on April 22nd. Other key reports to follow include Canada manufacturing sales and foreign securities purchases, Mexico industrial output, Brazil retail trade, Peru monthly GDP and Colombia first-quarter GDP figures.

The UK will be publishing preliminary estimates of first-quarter GDP and business investment data, alongside foreign trade balance, industrial production and construction output for March. Britain's economy is seen contracting by 2 percent in the January to March period, the most since the last quarter of 2008, as the Covid-19 pandemic forced the government to impose lockdown measures from mid-March.

Elsewhere in Europe, several countries, including Germany and the Netherlands, will publish flash readings of first-quarter GDP, while the Eurozone is set to provide a second estimate. The bloc's largest economy is seen shrinking by 2.1 percent, the worst contraction in 11 years, as efforts to contain the rapid spread of COVID-19 forced many businesses to close and people to stay at home. Investors will also keep an eye on the Eurozone industrial production and trade balance; Germany wholesale and producer prices; Italy industrial output, factory orders and foreign trade; France first-quarter jobless rate; Turkey unemployment rate, retail sales and industrial activity; and Sweden and Norway inflation rates.

In Asia, China will be publishing April's price data, with forecasts pointing to a slowdown in consumer inflation and a deeper producer deflation amid the coronavirus crisis. Other important releases include industrial production, retail sales, unemployment rate, fixed asset investment and monetary indicators. In Japan, investors will turn their attention to the current account, producer prices, Eco Watchers Survey, and March's preliminary reading of the leading economic index.

Meanwhile in Australia, traders will focus on employment figures, NAB business confidence, Westpac consumer confidence, and home loans. Across the Tasman Sea, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, but no changes are expected.

Other key data for the Asia-Pacific include: India consumer and wholesale prices, industrial production and trade balance; South Korea unemployment rate; Malaysia first-quarter GDP and industrial output; and Indonesia trade balance.

Also, monthly reports from both the OPEC and the IEA are scheduled this week.





 


Friday May 08 2020 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI Final APR 21.5 33.8
01:30 AM
AU
RBA Statement on Monetary Policy
04:00 AM
MY
Unemployment Rate MAR 3.9% 3.3%
06:00 AM
DE
Balance of Trade MAR €17.4B €20.6B ®
12:00 PM
BR
Inflation Rate YoY APR 2.4% 3.3%
12:15 PM
CA
Housing Starts APR 171K 195K
12:30 PM
CA
Participation Rate APR 59.8% 63.5%
12:30 PM
CA
Part Time Employment Chg APR -521.9K -536.7K
12:30 PM
CA
Unemployment Rate APR 13% 7.8%
12:30 PM
CA
Employment Change APR -1993.8K -1010.7K
12:30 PM
CA
Full Time Employment Chg APR -1472K -474K
12:30 PM
US
Non Farm Payrolls APR -20500K -870K ®
12:30 PM
US
Unemployment Rate APR 14.7% 4.4%
02:00 PM
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM MAR -0.8% -0.7% ®
EA
Eurogroup Video Conference
Sunday May 10 2020 Actual Previous
11:50 PM
JP
BoJ Summary of Opinions
Monday May 11 2020 Actual Previous
04:30 AM
NL
Consumer Confidence Final APR -27 -2
07:00 AM
TR
Unemployment Rate FEB 13.6% 13.8%
07:30 AM
SE
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
08:00 AM
EA
ECB Mersch Speech
08:00 AM
IT
Industrial Production MoM MAR -28.4% -1% ®
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
01:00 PM
GB
PM Johnson Statement on Coronavirus
04:00 PM
US
Fed Bostic Speech
04:30 PM
US
Fed Evans Speech
GB
UK-EU Brexit Talks
Tuesday May 12 2020 Actual Previous
01:30 AM
AU
NAB Business Confidence APR -46 -66
01:30 AM
CN
Inflation Rate YoY APR 3.3% 4.3%
01:30 AM
CN
PPI YoY APR -3.1% -1.5%
01:30 AM
CN
Inflation Rate MoM APR -0.9% -1.2%
04:30 AM
NL
Inflation Rate YoY APR 1.2% 1.4%
06:00 AM
NO
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1 1.1% 1.8%
06:00 AM
NO
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q1 -1.5% 1.5%
06:00 AM
NO
GDP Growth Mainland QoQ Final Q1 -2.1% 0.1%
11:00 AM
BR
BCB Copom Meeting Minutes
12:00 PM
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY MAR -20.6% 3.1% ®
12:00 PM
IN
Industrial Production YoY MAR -16.7% 4.6% ®
12:30 PM
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY APR 1.4% 2.1%
12:30 PM
US
Inflation Rate YoY APR 0.3% 1.5%
12:30 PM
US
Inflation Rate MoM APR -0.8% -0.4%
12:30 PM
US
Core Inflation Rate MoM APR -0.4% -0.1%
01:00 PM
US
Fed Kashkari Speech
01:00 PM
US
Fed Bullard Speech
02:00 PM
US
Fed Quarles Testimony
02:30 PM
IN
Prime Minister Modi Speech
04:00 PM
US
Fed Harker Speech
06:00 PM
US
Monthly Budget Statement APR $-738B $-119B
08:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 08/MAY 7.58M 8.4M
09:00 PM
US
Fed Mester Speech
11:00 PM
KR
Unemployment Rate APR 3.8% 3.8%
11:50 PM
JP
Current Account MAR ¥1917.0B ¥3168.8B
Wednesday May 13 2020 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index MAY 88.1 75.6
12:30 AM
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change MAY 16.4% -17.7%
04:00 AM
MY
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1 0.7% 3.6%
04:00 AM
MY
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q1 -2% 0.6%
06:00 AM
GB
Balance of Trade MAR £-6.7B £-1.5B ®
06:00 AM
GB
GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1 -1.6% 1.1%
06:00 AM
GB
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1 -2% 0%
06:00 AM
GB
Construction Output YoY MAR -7.1% -2.8% ®