Week Ahead

The coronavirus will continue to dominate the headlines as investors fear that a second wave of infections could delay the easing of restrictions in a number of countries. Elsewhere, top negotiators from the EU and the UK will be meeting to discuss Brexit, while European finance ministers are set to debate the bloc's budgetary situation. On the economic data front, important releases to follow include US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Germany factory output and orders, China inflation data, Japan machinery orders and India industrial output. Central bank meetings in Australia and Malaysia will also be keenly watched.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 7/4/2020 9:03:11 AM
In the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI should signal a smaller decline in service activity during June as businesses restarted their operations following weeks of coronavirus-induced restrictions. At the same time, the weekly jobless claims report is expected to show that another 1.4 million workers filled for unemployment benefits, lifting the total reported since March 21st to over 50 million. Other notable publications are producer prices, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, JOLTs Job Openings, and the final readings of Markit Services PMI and wholesale inventories.

Elsewhere in America, key data to follow include Canada employment figures, Ivey PMI and housing starts; Mexico consumer prices; and Brazil inflation rate and retail sales. The central bank of Mexico is also due to publish its monetary policy meeting minutes.

Across the Atlantic, investors will be awaiting to hear about any new developments on Brexit talks, with discussions set to continue in London after divergences remained at the end of the last meeting. At the same time, European finance ministers will be meeting to discuss the budgetary situation and fiscal stance in the euro area as well as present the Commission’s summer interim forecast.

Meanwhile, the UK economic calendar will be light, with only the releases of Markit Construction PMI, Halifax house prices, final first-quarter labour productivity and new car sales scheduled. Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone retail sales are expected to rebound at a record pace in May, after suffering steep falls in March and April, following the lifting of coronavirus-related lockdown. In addition, industrial activity in Germany, France and Italy are also projected to surge by record rates. Other key economic data include: the Eurozone Markit Construction PMI; Germany foreign trade and factory orders; France trade balance; Spain consumer survey and industrial output; Italy retail trade; Switzerland and Turkey unemployment rates; and the Netherlands and Ireland inflation data.

China will be publishing consumer and producer price data for June, with markets seeing a slight increase in inflation from May's 14-month low, while producer price deflation is set to ease. Investors in Japan will turn their attention to machinery orders, current account, producer prices, household spending, cash earnings and Eco Watchers survey.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will be holding its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, but no changes are expected. On the economic data front, important releases include Ai Group Services Index, home loans and ANZ job ads. Across the Tasman Sea, New Zealand will release updated figures for NZIER business confidence and capacity utilization as well as electronic retail card spending.

Other key data for the Asia-Pacific region include India industrial production; Hong Kong Markit PMI; Taiwan trade figures, consumer and wholesale prices; Malaysia industrial production; the Philippines inflation, industrial output and trade balance; and Indonesia consumer confidence and retail sales. Malaysia central bank will be deciding on monetary policy, with markets expecting a 25 bps cut to new record lows.

On the political front, Singapore's general election is scheduled to be held on July 10th.





 


Saturday July 04 2020 Actual Previous
10:40 AM
EA
ECB President Lagarde Speech
Monday July 06 2020 Actual Previous
04:30 AM
NL
Consumer Confidence Final JUN -27 -31
06:00 AM
DE
Factory Orders MoM MAY 10.4% -26.2% ®
07:30 AM
DE
Construction PMI JUN 41.3 40.1
08:30 AM
GB
Construction PMI JUN 55.3 28.9
09:00 AM
EA
Retail Sales MoM MAY 17.8% -12.1% ®
09:00 AM
EA
Retail Sales YoY MAY -5.1% -19.6%
10:30 AM
ES
Consumer Confidence JUN 60.7 52.9
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
01:45 PM
US
Markit Composite PMI Final JUN 47.9 37
01:45 PM
US
Markit Services PMI Final JUN 47.9 37.5
02:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity JUN 66.0 41
02:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices JUN 62.4 55.6
02:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders JUN 61.6 41.9
02:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment JUN 43.1 31.8
02:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI JUN 57.1 45.4
10:30 PM
AU
Ai Group Services Index JUN 31.5 31.6
Tuesday July 07 2020 Actual Previous
01:00 AM
PH
Inflation Rate YoY JUN 2.5% 2.1%
04:30 AM
AU
RBA Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
04:30 AM
NL
Inflation Rate YoY JUN 1.6% 1.2%
06:00 AM
DE
Industrial Production MoM MAY 7.8% -17.5% ®
06:45 AM
FR
Balance of Trade MAY €-7.1B €-5.1B ®
07:00 AM
MY
Interest Rate Decision 1.75% 2.0%
07:30 AM
GB
Halifax House Price Index MoM JUN -0.1% -0.2%
07:30 AM
GB
Halifax House Price Index YoY JUN 2.5% 2.6%
08:00 AM
EU
European Commission Forecasts
08:00 AM
IT
Retail Sales MoM MAY 24.3% -10.7% ®
01:00 PM
RU
Foreign Exchange Reserves JUN $568.9B $566.1B
01:00 PM
US
Fed Bostic Speech
02:00 PM
CA
Ivey PMI s.a JUN 58.2 39.1
02:00 PM
US
JOLTs Job Openings MAY 5.397M 4.996M ®
02:00 PM
US
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism JUL 44 47
05:00 PM
US
Fed Quarles Speech
06:00 PM
US
Fed Daly Speech
06:00 PM
US
Fed Barkin Speech
08:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 03/JUL 2M -8.156M
11:50 PM
JP
Current Account MAY ¥1176.8B ¥262.7B
Wednesday July 08 2020 Actual Previous
12:00 AM
US
Total Vehicle Sales JUN 13.1M 12.2M
05:45 AM
CH
Unemployment Rate JUN 3.2% 3.4%
08:45 AM
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
11:30 AM
GB
Supplementary Budget
12:00 PM
BR
Retail Sales MoM MAY 13.9% -16.3% ®
02:00 PM
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
02:30 PM
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change 03/JUL 3.136M -0.593M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 03/JUL 5.654M -7.195M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change 03/JUL 2.206M -0.263M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 03/JUL -4.839M 1.199M
04:00 PM
RU
Inflation Rate YoY JUN 3.2% 3%
04:15 PM
US
Fed Bostic Speech
05:45 PM
DE
Bundesbank Buch Speech
11:50 PM
JP
Machinery Orders MoM MAY 1.7% -12%
11:50 PM
JP
Machinery Orders YoY MAY -16.3% -17.7%
Thursday July 09 2020 Actual Previous
01:30 AM
CN
Inflation Rate YoY JUN 2.5% 2.4%
01:30 AM
CN
Inflation Rate MoM JUN -0.1% -0.8%
01:30 AM
CN
PPI YoY JUN -3.0% -3.7%
06:00 AM
DE
Balance of Trade MAY €7.1B €3.6B ®
10:00 AM
IE
Inflation Rate YoY JUN -0.4% -0.5%
11:00 AM
MX
Inflation Rate YoY JUN 3.33% 2.84%
12:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank Buch Speech
12:15 PM
CA
Housing Starts JUN 211.7K 195.5K ®
12:30 PM
US
Initial Jobless Claims 04/JUL 1314K 1413K ®
12:30 PM
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average 04/JUL 1437.25K 1500.25K ®
02:00 PM
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM MAY -1.2% 0.2%
03:00 PM
MX
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
04:00 PM
US
Fed Bostic Speech
05:00 PM
US
30-Year Bond Auction 1.330% 1.450%
EA
Eurogroup Meeting
Friday July 10 2020 Actual Previous