Week Ahead

The coronavirus will continue to dominate the headlines as well as the second-quarter earnings season, with companies such as IBM, Microsoft, Tesla and Twitter reporting their results. Elsewhere, flash PMI surveys for the US, UK, Eurozone, Japan and Australia will be keenly watched, while central banks in China, Russia, Turkey and South Africa will be deciding on monetary policy. Other key data to follow include: US existing and new home sales, and the weekly jobless report; UK retail trade, business and consumer morale; Eurozone consumer confidence; Japan trade balance and inflation; and South Korea Q1 GDP figures.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 7/17/2020 6:45:16 PM
The Markit PMI survey for the US is set to highlight the long path to recovery in the world's largest economy from the coronavirus crisis, with forecasts suggesting the private sector activity rebounded only slightly during July as several states were forced to pause or reverse reopening efforts after a spike in coronavirus cases. Other notable publications include existing and new home sales, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and the weekly jobless report.

On the corporate front, the second-quarter earnings season continues, with earnings reports to watch including American Express, AT&T, Coca-Cola, IBM, Intel, Microsoft, Novartis, Philip Morris International, Schlumberger, Snap, Tesla, Twitter and Verizon.

Elsewhere in America, key economic data to follow include Canada retail trade, inflation and new housing prices, Mexico mid-month inflation, retail sales and economic activity, and Brazil mid-month inflation.

In the UK, flash Markit PMI numbers are expected to show further signs of a turnaround in the manufacturing activity and to point to the first rise in the service sector output for five months. At the same time, figures from the ONS will most likely signal a renewed recovery in consumption with retail sales rising in June, following a record rebound in May. Investors will also keep an eye on Gfk Consumer Confidence, public sector net borrowing and CBI's gauges for factory orders and business optimism.

Elsewhere in Europe, flash Markit PMIs for the Eurozone, Germany and France will be in the spotlight, with the bloc’s manufacturing sector set to shrink at the softest pace in the current 1-1/2-year sequence of contraction and the service sector activity to rebound as the economies in the region continued to reopen and the new infection rate remained low. Other key economic data include: the Euro Area flash consumer morale and current account; Germany GfK Consumer Confidence and producer prices; Italy business and consumer survey; Switzerland trade balance; and Turkey consumer confidence. Central banks in Russia and Turkey will be deciding on monetary policy, with Russia policymakers seen slashing interest rates by at least 25 bps.

In Asia, the People's Bank of China will provide an update on its new loan prime rate (LPR) on Monday, which was set at 3.85 percent on June 22th as the economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia will publish their monetary policy meeting minutes. Other key data for Japan include flash Jibun Bank PMIs, trade balance and consumer price inflation; while in Australia analysts will be waiting for flash CommBank PMIs.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: South Korea second-quarter GDP advance estimate; New Zealand services NZ PSI and trade balance; Malaysia inflation; Thailand foreign trade; and Singapore industrial output and inflation data.

Elsewhere, the South Africa Reserve Bank is seen slashing interest rates by another 25bps when it meets on Thursday, after the inflation rate in May hit its lowest level since 2004 amid a deep economic recession.





 


Friday July 17 2020 Actual Previous
07:30 AM
NG
Inflation Rate YoY JUN 12.56% 12.4%
08:00 AM
PL
Employment Growth YoY JUN -3.3% -3.2%
08:00 AM
ES
Balance of Trade MAY €0.12B €-1.52B
08:30 AM
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
09:00 AM
EA
Core Inflation Rate YoY Final JUN 0.8% 0.9%
09:00 AM
EA
Construction Output YoY MAY -11.9% -31% ®
09:00 AM
EA
Inflation Rate YoY Final JUN 0.3% 0.1%
12:30 PM
US
Building Permits MoM JUN 2.1% 14.1%
12:30 PM
US
Building Permits JUN 1.241M 1.216M ®
12:30 PM
US
Housing Starts MoM JUN 17.3% 8.2% ®
12:30 PM
US
Housing Starts JUN 1.186M 1.011M ®
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel JUL 66.2 72.3
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Current Conditions Prel JUL 84.2 87.1
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel JUL 3.1% 3%
02:00 PM
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel JUL 2.7% 2.5%
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel JUL 73.2 78.1
04:00 PM
RU
Unemployment Rate JUN 6.2% 6.1%
SA
G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Deputies Video Conference
EU
EU Meeting on Common Recovery Plan
Saturday July 18 2020 Actual Previous
SA
G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Video Conference
EU
EU Meeting on Common Recovery Plan
Sunday July 19 2020 Actual Previous
11:50 PM
JP
Balance of Trade JUN ¥-268.8B ¥-838.2B ®
11:50 PM
JP
BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
11:50 PM
JP
Exports YoY JUN -26.2% -28.3%
EU
EU Meeting on Common Recovery Plan
Monday July 20 2020 Actual Previous
01:30 AM
CN
Loan Prime Rate 1Y 3.85% 3.85%
01:30 AM
CN
Loan Prime Rate 5Y JUL 4.65% 4.65%
06:00 AM
DE
PPI MoM JUN 0.0% -0.4%
08:00 AM
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
01:30 PM
NG
Interest Rate Decision 12.5% 12.5%
11:30 PM
JP
Inflation Rate YoY JUN 0.1% 0.1%
11:30 PM
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY JUN 0.0% -0.2%
EU
EU Meeting on Common Recovery Plan
Tuesday July 21 2020 Actual Previous
01:30 AM
AU
RBA Meeting Minutes
02:30 AM
AU
RBA Gov Lowe Speech
06:00 AM
CH
Balance of Trade JUN CHF2.8B CHF2.68B ®
12:30 PM
CA
Retail Sales MoM MAY 18.7% -25% ®
12:30 PM
CA
New Housing Price Index YoY JUN 1.3% 1.1%
12:30 PM
CA
New Housing Price Index MoM JUN 0.1% 0.1%
12:30 PM
US
Chicago Fed National Activity Index JUN 4.11 3.50 ®
01:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank Buch Speech
01:30 PM
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
08:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 17/JUL 7.544M -8.322M
Wednesday July 22 2020 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash JUL 42.6 40.1
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI Flash JUL 45.2 45.0
04:00 AM
MY
Inflation Rate YoY JUN -1.9% -2.9%
04:30 AM
NL
Consumer Confidence JUL -26.0 -27
11:00 AM
ZA
Retail Sales YoY APR -50.4% 2.9% ®
11:00 AM
ZA
Retail Sales YoY MAY -12.0% -50.4%
12:30 PM
CA
Inflation Rate YoY JUN 0.7% -0.4%
12:30 PM
CA
Inflation Rate MoM JUN 0.8% 0.3%
12:30 PM
CA
Core Inflation Rate YoY JUN 1.1% 0.7%
01:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank Buch Speech
02:00 PM
US
Existing Home Sales MoM JUN 20.7% -9.7%
02:00 PM
US
Existing Home Sales JUN 4.72M 3.91M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change 17/JUL 1.073M -0.453M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 17/JUL -1.802M -3.147M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 17/JUL 4.892M -7.493M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change 17/JUL 1.375M 0.949M
03:00 PM
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
11:00 PM
KR
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv Q2 -2.9% 1.4%
11:00 PM
KR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q2 -3.3% -1.3%
Thursday July 23 2020 Actual Previous
06:00 AM
DE
GfK Consumer Confidence AUG -0.3 -9.4 ®
06:00 AM
NO
Unemployment Rate MAY 4.6% 4.1% ®
06:45 AM
FR
Business Confidence JUL 82 78 ®