Week Ahead

The US earnings season continues next week, with companies such as Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, P&G, Pfizer, Gilead Sciences, Exxon Mobil and Chevron reporting their second-quarter results. Meanwhile, the Fed's monetary policy meeting will be keenly watched as well as GDP data for the US, Eurozone, Hong Kong and Taiwan, and PMI survey for China. Other key economic data include US personal income and outlays and durable goods orders; Eurozone business survey and inflation; Japan consumer confidence, retail trade and industrial output; and Australia inflation data.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 7/25/2020 9:31:31 AM
In the US, Fed officials are seen holding the target range for the federal funds rate at 0-0.25 percent at the end of their two-day meeting on Wednesday, with all eyes on Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for further details about future policy steps. On the economic data front, the Bureau of Economic Analysis' GDP figures will probably show the US economy shrank by an annualized 34 percent during the secord quarter, the fastest pace of contraction on record, as lockdown measures imposed from mid-March to contain the rapid spread of the pandemic hit activity and demand. US states gradually lifted restrictions from early May, but were forced to pause or reverse reopening efforts amid a resurgence in COVID-19 cases. Other notable publications include: personal income and outlays; PCE price index; durable goods orders; second-quarter employment cost index; CB consumer confidence; pending home sales; Case-Shiller home prices; Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index; Chicago PMI; the advance estimates of goods trade balance and wholesale inventories, and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment.

Investors will also be closely monitoring the busiest week of the earnings season, with focus turning to reports from big firms including Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, 3M, Spotify, Qualcomm, Pfizer, Gilead Sciences, Merck, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Procter & Gamble, General Electric, General Motors, Ford, Boeing, Starbucks, McDonald’s, Caterpillar, Mastercard, PayPal and Visa. Top US oil producers Exxon Mobil and Chevron will also report second-quarter financial results.

Elsewhere in America, important data to follow include Canada monthly GDP and producer prices; Mexico second-quarter GDP and trade balance; and Brazil jobless rate. Colombia's central bank is seen cutting interest rates by 25 bps to new record lows.

Meanwhile, it is a soft week ahead on the UK economic calendar, with the Bank of England publishing its monetary indicators, the Nationwide Building Society releasing housing prices and the CBI issuing its distributive trades survey. 

Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone's flash second-quarter GDP data, alongside jobs report, preliminary inflation and business survey will provide a clue to how deep the coronavirus-induced recession will be for the region. The bloc's economy is expected to fall at a record pace as a two-month coronavirus lockdown forced many non-essential businesses to close and consumers to stay at home. Other key economic data include: Germany Ifo business climate and retail sales; France consumer survey; Italy and Spain retail sales; Turkey business confidence, foreign trade and tourism revenues; and Switzerland KOF leading indicators and retail trade.

In China, the NBS will be releasing its manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for July with forecasts pointing to a further recovery in factory activity after hitting an all-time low in February amid the coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile in Japan, key data include retail sales, consumer confidence, industrial production, unemployment rate and housing starts.

In Australia, investors will turn their attention to second-quarter inflation data, building permits, and private sector credit. Across the Tasman Sea, New Zealand will publish ANZ business confidence and building permits.

Other highlights for the Asia Pacific region include: Hong Kong and Taiwan second-quarter GDP; South Korea consumer and business confidence, retail sales, industrial output and trade balance; Malaysia trade; Singapore second-quarter unemployment rate; Thailand industrial production; and Vietnam trade balance, industrial output, inflation.





 


Sunday July 26 2020 Actual Previous
11:50 PM
JP
BoJ Summary of Opinions
Monday July 27 2020 Actual Previous
12:00 AM
AU
RBA Kent Speech
07:00 AM
TR
Business Confidence JUL 100.7 92.6
07:00 AM
TR
Capacity Utilization JUL 70.7% 66%
08:00 AM
DE
Ifo Business Climate JUL 90.5 86.3 ®
10:00 AM
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims JUN -202.7K -148.3K
11:00 AM
MX
Balance of Trade JUN $5.547B $-3.523B
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
12:30 PM
US
Durable Goods Orders MoM JUN 7.3% 15.1% ®
12:30 PM
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM JUN 3.3% 3.6% ®
02:30 PM
US
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index JUL -3.0 -6.1
Tuesday July 28 2020 Actual Previous
07:00 AM
ES
Unemployment Rate Q2 15.33% 14.41%
10:00 AM
GB
CBI Distributive Trades JUL 4 -37
01:00 PM
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY MAY 3.7% 3.9% ®
01:00 PM
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM MAY 0.4% 0.8% ®
02:00 PM
US
CB Consumer Confidence JUL 92.6 98.3 ®
08:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 24/JUL -6.829M 7.544M
09:00 PM
KR
Consumer Confidence JUL 84.2 81.8
Wednesday July 29 2020 Actual Previous
01:30 AM
AU
Inflation Rate YoY Q2 -0.3% 2.2%
01:30 AM
AU
Inflation Rate QoQ Q2 -1.9% 0.3%
02:30 AM
SG
Unemployment Rate Prel Q2 2.9% 2.4%
05:30 AM
JP
BoJ Amamiya Speech
06:45 AM
FR
Consumer Confidence JUL 94 96 ®
07:00 AM
TR
Balance of Trade JUN $-2.85B $-3.42B
07:30 AM
TR
CBRT Inflation Report
08:00 AM
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY JUN 2.2% 2.1%
08:30 AM
HK
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv Q2 -9% -9.1% ®
08:30 AM
HK
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q2 -0.1% -5.3%
08:30 AM
GB
BoE Consumer Credit JUN £-0.086B £-4.542B ®
08:30 AM
GB
Mortgage Lending JUN £1.9B £1.3B ®
08:30 AM
GB
Mortgage Approvals JUN 40K 9.27K ®
11:00 AM
TR
MPC Meeting Summary
12:30 PM
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv JUN -2% -1.2%
12:30 PM
US
Goods Trade Balance Adv JUN $-70.64B $-75.3B ®
02:00 PM
US
Pending Home Sales YoY JUN 6.3% -5.1%
02:30 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 24/JUL 0.654M -1.802M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change 24/JUL 0.503M 1.073M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change 24/JUL 1.309M 1.375M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 24/JUL -10.612M 4.892M
06:00 PM
US
Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
06:30 PM
US
Fed Press Conference
09:00 PM
KR
Business Confidence JUL 57 51
11:50 PM
JP
Retail Sales YoY JUN -1.2% -12.5% ®
EA
ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting
Thursday July 30 2020 Actual Previous
01:30 AM
AU
Building Permits MoM JUN -4.9% -15.8% ®
06:00 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate Harmonised JUN 4.2% 4.1% ®
07:00 AM
CH
KOF Leading Indicators JUL 85.7 60.6 ®
07:55 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate JUL 6.4% 6.4%
07:55 AM
DE
Unemployment Change JUL -18K 68K ®
08:00 AM
EA
ECB Economic Bulletin
08:00 AM
DE
GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash Q2 -11.7% -2.3%
08:00 AM
DE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q2 -10.1% -2.0% ®
08:00 AM
IT
Unemployment Rate JUN 8.8% 8.3% ®
09:00 AM
EA
Economic Sentiment JUL 82.3 75.8 ®
09:00 AM
EA
Consumer Confidence Final JUL -15 -14.7
09:00 AM
EA
Unemployment Rate JUN 7.8% 7.7% ®
10:30 AM
ES
Business Confidence JUL -11.5 -23.1 ®
11:00 AM
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q2 -18.9% -1.4%
11:00 AM
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q2 -17.3% -1.2%
12:00 PM
DE
Inflation Rate YoY Prel JUL -0.1% 0.9%
12:30 PM
US
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q2 -32.9% -5%
12:30 PM
US
Initial Jobless Claims 25/JUL 1434K 1422K ®
12:30 PM
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average 25/JUL 1368.5K 1362K ®
12:30 PM
US
GDP Price Index QoQ Adv Q2 -2.1% 1.7% ®
11:30 PM
JP
Unemployment Rate JUN 2.8% 2.9%
11:50 PM
JP
Industrial Production MoM Prel JUN 2.7% -8.9%
Friday July 31 2020 Actual Previous
01:00 AM
CN
NBS Manufacturing PMI JUL 51.1 50.9
01:00 AM
CN
Non Manufacturing PMI JUL 54.2 54.4
01:30 AM
AU
PPI QoQ Q2 -1.2% 0.2%
05:00 AM
JP
Consumer Confidence JUL 29.5 28.4
05:00 AM
JP
Housing Starts YoY JUN -12.8% -12.3%
05:30 AM
FR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q2 -13.8% -5.9% ®
06:00 AM
DE
Retail Sales MoM JUN -1.6% 12.7% ®
06:00 AM
DE
Retail Sales YoY JUN 5.9% 3.8%
06:00 AM
GB
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY JUL 1.5% -0.1%