Week Ahead

The coronavirus will continue to dominate the headlines as investors fear that a resurgence in new cases could hamper the global economic recovery. Meanwhile, US Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will testify before the Senate and House of Representatives on the CARES Act. Elsewhere, flash PMI surveys for the US, UK, Eurozone, Japan and Australia will be keenly watched, while central banks in China, Turkey, Mexico and New Zealand will be deciding on monetary policy. Other key data to follow include: US existing and new home sales, and the weekly jobless report; UK and Eurozone consumer confidence.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 9/18/2020 7:54:41 PM
In the US, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will testify on Thursday before the Senate Banking Committee on coronavirus relief. The Fed chair will deliver similar remarks to the US House of Representatives on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Meanwhile, a relatively light US economic calendar is scheduled for next week. The Markit PMI survey is set to highlight the long path to recovery from the coronavirus shock, with forecasts suggesting the private sector growth slowed in September amid a spike in coronavirus cases and a lack of progress on fresh stimulus negotiations between Democratic congressional leaders and White House chiefs. Also, orders for durable orders are seen rising at a softer pace in August. Other notable publications include existing and new home sales, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and the weekly jobless report.

Elsewhere in America, the central bank of Mexico will be deciding on monetary policy on Thursday. Key economic data to follow include Canada new housing prices, Mexico second-quarter private spending, mid-month inflation, retail sales and economic activity, Brazil mid-month inflation and current account, and Argentina second-quarter GDP figures and unemployment.

In the UK, flash Markit PMI data are expected to show that the recovery of Britain’s private sector economy lost momentum in September with both manufacturers and service providers registering softer growth rates than in August. At the same time, consumer morale is seen unchanged for the second consecutive month, remaining close to April's near decade low. In addition, the CBI is set to publish gauges for factory orders and distributive trades, and the ONS will release updated data for public finances.

Elsewhere in Europe, the preliminary estimate of the Eurozone consumer confidence is expected to remain weak amid a resurgence in coronavirus infections across the region; and Markit PMIs are likely to signal a slight improvement in manufacturing growth while services expansion should remain subdued. Also, Germany’s Ifo business climate is set to rise to a 7-month high in September and the country’s consumer morale will probably improve further heading into October. Other key economic data include: France industry morale and jobless benefit claims; Spain and the Netherlands final second-quarter GDP data; Italy and Turkey business and consumer surveys; and Switzerland current account. Central banks in Turkey, Switzerland, Sweden and Norway will decide on interest rates. 

In Asia, the People's Bank of China will provide an update on its new loan prime rate (LPR) on Monday, which stands at 3.85 percent after two cuts this year as the economy continues to recover from the shock caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Meantime, the Bank of Japan will be publishing its monetary policy meeting minutes while the Jibun Bank will be releasing flash PMI figures for September.

Investors in Australia will turn their attention to the CommBank PMI survey for September as Victoria state is being hit by a resurgence in COVID cases. Across the Tasman Sea, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be deciding on monetary policy, with traders looking for signs as to whether the central bank will lower interest rates into negative territory. On the economic data front, important releases in New Zealand include trade balance.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: South Korea consumer confidence; Thailand interest rate decision and trade balance; Malaysia inflation; Hong Kong consumer prices, foreign trade and current account; Singapore inflation and manufacturing output; and Taiwan export orders, jobless rate and industrial production.





 


Friday September 18 2020 Actual Previous
06:00 AM
DE
PPI MoM AUG 0% 0.2%
06:00 AM
GB
Retail Sales MoM AUG 0.8% 3.7% ®
06:00 AM
GB
Retail Sales YoY AUG 2.8% 1.4%
09:15 AM
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
10:30 AM
RU
Interest Rate Decision 4.25% 4.25%
12:00 PM
RU
CBR Press Conference
12:30 PM
CA
Retail Sales MoM JUL 0.6% 22.7% ®
12:30 PM
US
Current Account Q2 $-170.5B $-111.5B ®
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Current Conditions Prel SEP 87.5 82.9
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel SEP 2.7% 3.1%
02:00 PM
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel SEP 2.6% 2.7%
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel SEP 78.9 74.1
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel SEP 73.3 68.5
04:00 PM
RU
Unemployment Rate AUG 6.4% 6.3%
Monday September 21 2020 Actual Previous
01:30 AM
CN
Loan Prime Rate 1Y 3.85% 3.85%
01:30 AM
CN
Loan Prime Rate 5Y SEP 4.65% 4.65%
07:00 AM
CH
Current Account Q2 CHF 9.9B CHF14.5B ®
08:00 AM
ES
Balance of Trade JUL €-0.31B €1.48B
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
12:10 PM
PK
Interest Rate Decision 7% 7%
12:30 PM
CA
New Housing Price Index YoY AUG 2.1% 1.7%
12:30 PM
CA
New Housing Price Index MoM AUG 0.5% 0.4%
12:30 PM
US
Chicago Fed National Activity Index AUG 0.79 2.54 ®
12:45 PM
EA
ECB President Lagarde Speech
04:00 PM
US
Fed Brainard Speech
10:00 PM
US
Fed Kaplan Speech
10:00 PM
US
Fed Williams Speech
Tuesday September 22 2020 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
AU
RBA Debelle Speech
04:30 AM
NL
Consumer Confidence SEP -28.0 -29
05:00 AM
FI
Unemployment Rate AUG 7.7% 7.7%
07:00 AM
TR
Consumer Confidence SEP 82.0 79.4 ®
07:30 AM
SE
Riksbank Rate Decision 0% 0%
07:30 AM
SE
Monetary Policy Report
08:00 AM
TW
Unemployment Rate AUG 3.83% 3.9%
10:00 AM
GB
CBI Industrial Trends Orders SEP -48 -44
11:00 AM
BR
BCB Copom Meeting Minutes
01:30 PM
NG
Interest Rate Decision 11.5% 12.5%
02:00 PM
EA
Consumer Confidence Flash SEP -13.9 -14.7
02:00 PM
US
Fed Evans Speech
02:00 PM
US
Existing Home Sales MoM JUL 2.4% 24.7%
02:00 PM
US
Existing Home Sales AUG 6M 5.86M
02:30 PM
US
Fed Chair Powell Testimony
07:00 PM
AR
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2 -19.1% -5.2% ®
07:00 PM
AR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q2 -16.2%