Week Ahead

The first presidential election debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be keenly watched next week, as well as the last official round of Brexit talks. Key economic data include US non-farm payrolls, personal income and outlays, factory orders; UK final Q2 GDP; Eurozone inflation and business survey; Germany and Australia retail sales; Japan's tankan quarterly survey, retail trade and industrial output; and worldwide manufacturing PMI surveys. Central banks in India and the Philippines will be deciding on monetary policy.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 9/26/2020 9:42:58 AM
It will be a busy week in the US as investor focus turns to Tuesday's Presidential Debate with President Donald Trump and rival Joe Biden facing off in their first debate ahead of the November election. Biden is currently leading polls by a small margin, but a second term for Trump is seen as better for the overall stock market as he favors deregulation.

On the economic data front, the US jobs report will probably suggest the labor market recovery is slowing, with markets predicting a payroll increase of just 920 thousand in September, following a smaller than expected 1.4 million rise in August. The unemployment rate is seen falling to 8.2 percent, compared to 8.4 percent in the previous month and an all-time high of 14.7 percent hit in April. 

Other notable publications are personal income and outlays; PCE price index; the ISM Manufacturing PMI survey; factory orders; construction spending; ADP employment change; the advance estimates of goods trade balance and wholesale inventories; and the final readings of second-quarter GDP, Markit Manufacturing PMI and Michigan consumer sentiment.

Elsewhere in America, key data to follow include Canada monthly GDP, Markit Manufacturing PMI, building permits and producer prices; Mexico jobless rate, trade balance, business morale and Markit Manufacturing PMI; and Brazil unemployment, industrial output, foreign trade and Markit Manufacturing PMI.

Across the Atlantic, the last official round of Brexit talks starts in Brussels on September 28th and all eyes will be on how negotiations improve. At the same time, the UK will publish the final estimate of second-quarter GDP growth and Markit Manufacturing PMI, alongside current account, Bank of England's monetary indicators and Nationwide house price index.

Elsewhere in Europe, key inflation and unemployment reports will be released for the Eurozone, Germany, Italy and Spain. The bloc is expected to remain in deflationary territory for a second month in September while the jobless rate is seen at a two-year high in August. Other key data include: Eurozone business survey; Germany retail sales and import prices; France consumer confidence and inflation; Italy and Spain Markit Manufacturing PMI surveys; Switzerland KOF leading indicators, consumer prices and retail trade; and Turkey foreign trade.

Investors in China will turn their attention to September's Manufacturing PMI update from both the NBS and Caixin, with forecasts pointing to ongoing recovery in activity from the coronavirus shock. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's tankan quarterly survey will probably show an improvement in business sentiment both at manufacturers and non-manufacturers. Other key data for the country include consumer confidence, unemployment rate, industrial production, retail sales, housing starts and Tokyo inflation.

The Reserve Bank of India will hold its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, but no changes are expected. On the economic data front, Markit Manufacturing PMI and current account will be in the spotlight. Traders in Australia will focus on building permits, private sector credit, Ai Group manufacturing index and retail sales. Across the Tasman Sea, important releases in New Zealand include building permits and ANZ business confidence.

Other highlights for the Asia Pacific region include: Vietnam third-quarter GDP, industrial output and inflation; South Korea trade balance, business confidence, industrial production and retail trade; Thailand industrial output; and Indonesia inflation rate. The Philippines' central bank will be deciding on monetary policy.





 


Monday September 28 2020 Actual Previous
11:00 AM
MX
Balance of Trade AUG $6.116B $5.799B
11:00 AM
MX
Unemployment Rate AUG 5.2% 5.4%
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
01:30 PM
DE
Bundesbank Mauderer Speech
01:45 PM
EA
ECB President Lagarde Testimony
02:30 PM
US
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index SEP 13.6 8.0
06:00 PM
US
Fed Mester Speech
09:00 PM
KR
Business Confidence SEP 68 66
11:50 PM
JP
BoJ Summary of Opinions
Tuesday September 29 2020 Actual Previous
06:45 AM
FR
Consumer Confidence SEP 95 95 ®
08:30 AM
GB
BoE Consumer Credit AUG £0.3B £1.1B ®
08:30 AM
GB
Mortgage Lending AUG £3.1B £2.9B ®
08:30 AM
GB
Mortgage Approvals AUG 84.7K 66.3K
09:00 AM
EA
Economic Sentiment SEP 91.1 87.5 ®
09:00 AM
EA
Consumer Confidence Final SEP -13.9 -14.7
09:30 AM
ZA
Unemployment Rate Q2 23.3% 30.1%
10:00 AM
DE
Bundesbank Mauderer Speech
10:00 AM
IE
Unemployment Rate SEP 5.4% 5.2%
11:00 AM
ES
Business Confidence SEP -9.1 -10 ®
12:00 PM
DE
Inflation Rate YoY Prel SEP -0.2% 0%
12:30 PM
US
Goods Trade Balance Adv AUG $-82.94B $-80.11B ®
12:30 PM
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv AUG 0.5% -0.1% ®
01:00 PM
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY JUL 3.9% 3.5%
01:00 PM
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM JUL 0.6% 0.3% ®
01:15 PM
US
Fed Williams Speech
01:30 PM
US
Fed Harker Speech
02:00 PM
US
CB Consumer Confidence SEP 101.8 86.3 ®
04:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank Mauderer Speech
05:00 PM
US
Fed Williams Speech
08:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 25/SEP -0.831M 0.691M
11:50 PM
JP
Industrial Production MoM Prel AUG 1.7% 8.7%