Americans Head to the Polls Waiting for Stimulus

The US Presidential election on November 3rd 2020 will be one of the more atypical in the US history. It happens in the middle of a pandemic, with early voting surging, both by mail and in person. Anxiety and uncertainty about the results mount not only because the result may take too long to be known but because investors fear a contested result. Still, regardless of the winner, markets seem to agree that a new stimulus is much needed to help the economic recovery.
Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com 11/3/2020 8:36:02 AM
According to the US Elections Project at the University of Florida, near 100 million Americans have already voted, and a rise in mail-in voting is raising concerns that it might take a lot of time to know the election results as officials process much more mail-in ballots than usual. President Trump recently threatened legal action to block the counting of ballots if they arrive after election day. Meanwhile, Democrat Joe Biden has been leading the polls for a long time but four years ago polls proved to be wrong and Donald Trump won. Still, regardless of the winner, markets seem to agree that a new stimulus is much needed to help the economic recovery. Yet, personal spending surged and was the main driver of a record 33.1% annualized growth in Q3, helped by checks and weekly unemployment benefits from the federal CARES Act. Indeed, many people are still unemployed as the economy only recovered nearly half of the 22 million jobs lost in March and April. Democrats have been pushing a $2.2 trillion stimulus package, and Biden's campaign includes additional checks to families; forgiving a minimum of $10,000 per person of federal student loans; and increasing monthly Social Security checks by $200/month. Republicans proposed a package worth around $1.8 trillion stimulus although President Trump said he would agree to go higher than the $1.8 trillion. Moreover, the new administration will have to deal with a pandemic far from being controlled while a vaccine for coronavirus is not ready yet. 





 


Tuesday November 03 2020 Actual Previous
03:30 AM
AU
RBA Interest Rate Decision 0.1% 0.25%
07:00 AM
MY
Interest Rate Decision 1.75% 1.75%
07:00 AM
TR
Inflation Rate YoY OCT 11.89% 11.75%
07:30 AM
CH
Inflation Rate YoY OCT -0.6% -0.8%
10:00 AM
DE
Bundesbank Mauderer Speech
11:00 AM
BR
BCB Copom Meeting Minutes
12:00 PM
MX
Business Confidence OCT 41.5 40.7 ®
03:00 PM
US
Factory Orders MoM SEP 1.1% 0.6% ®
04:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank Balz Speech
06:00 PM
BR
Balance of Trade OCT $5.5B $6.2B
06:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank Mauderer Speech
09:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 30/OCT -8.01M 4.577M
10:00 PM
AU
Markit Services PMI Final OCT 53.7 50.8
11:50 PM
JP
BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
US
Presidential Election
EA
Eurogroup Video Conference
Wednesday November 04 2020 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
AU
Retail Sales MoM Final SEP -1.1% -4%
01:45 AM
CN
Caixin Services PMI OCT 56.8 54.8
08:00 AM
ES
Unemployment Change OCT 49.6K -26.3K
08:15 AM
ES
Markit Services PMI OCT 41.4 42.4
08:45 AM
IT
IHS Markit Services PMI OCT 46.7 48.8
08:50 AM
FR
Markit Services PMI Final OCT 46.5 47.5
08:55 AM
DE
Markit Services PMI Final OCT 49.5 50.6
09:00 AM
EA
Markit Services PMI Final OCT 46.9 48
09:30 AM
GB
Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Final OCT 51.4 56.1
11:00 AM
IE
Unemployment Rate OCT 7.3% 7.3% ®
12:00 PM
BR
Industrial Production MoM SEP 2.6% 3.6% ®
01:15 PM
US
ADP Employment Change OCT 365K 753K ®
01:30 PM
CA
Balance of Trade SEP C$-3.25B C$-3.21B ®
01:30 PM
US
Balance of Trade SEP $-63.9B $-67B ®
02:45 PM
US
Markit Services PMI Final OCT 56.9 54.6
02:45 PM
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Markit Composite PMI Final OCT 56.3 54.3
03:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices OCT 63.9 59
03:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders OCT 58.8 61.5
03:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment OCT 50.1 51.8
03:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity OCT 61.2 63
03:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI OCT 56.6 57.8
03:30 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 30/OCT 1.541M -0.892M
03:30 PM
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EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 30/OCT -7.998M 4.32M
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EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change 30/OCT 0.936M -0.422M
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EIA Distillate Stocks Change 30/OCT -1.585M -4.491M
EU
EcoFin Video Conference
Thursday November 05 2020 Actual Previous
12:00 AM
US
Total Vehicle Sales OCT 16.2M 16.3M
12:30 AM
AU
Balance of Trade SEP A$5.630B A$2.618B ®
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI Final OCT 47.7 46.9
01:00 AM
PH
Inflation Rate YoY OCT 2.5% 2.3%
04:00 AM
ID
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 -3.49% -5.32%
04:00 AM
ID
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q3 5.05% -4.19%
05:30 AM
NL
Inflation Rate YoY OCT 1.2% 1.1%
06:45 AM
CH
Consumer Confidence Q4 -12.8 -12
07:00 AM
DE
Factory Orders MoM SEP 0.5% 4.9% ®
07:00 AM
GB
Monetary Policy Report
07:00 AM
GB
BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.1% 0.1%
07:00 AM
GB
BoE Quantitative Easing £875B £745B
07:00 AM
GB
MPC Meeting Minutes
07:00 AM
GB
BoE MPC Vote Hike 0/9 0/9
07:00 AM
GB
BoE MPC Vote Unchanged 9/9 9/9
07:00 AM
GB
BoE MPC Vote Cut 0/9 0/9
08:30 AM
DE
Construction PMI OCT 45.2 45.5
08:30 AM
SE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q3 4.3% -8.6% ®
09:00 AM
NO
Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision 0% 0%
09:30 AM
GB
Construction PMI OCT 53.1 56.8
10:00 AM
EA
Retail Sales MoM SEP -2% 4.2% ®
10:00 AM
EA
Retail Sales YoY SEP 2.2% 4.4% ®
11:30 AM
ES
Consumer Confidence OCT 48.5 49.5
11:40 AM
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
12:00 PM
MX
Consumer Confidence OCT 37.6 36.3 ®
12:00 PM
GB
Sunak Statement on COVID Support
01:00 PM
BR
Markit Services PMI OCT 52.3 50.4
01:30 PM
US
Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Prel Q3 4.9% 10.6% ®
01:30 PM
US
Initial Jobless Claims 31/OCT 751K 758K ®
01:30 PM
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Jobless Claims 4-Week Average 31/OCT 787K 791K ®
01:30 PM
US
Unit Labour Costs QoQ Prel Q3 -8.9% 8.5% ®
03:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank Weidmann Speech
07:00 PM
US
Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
07:30 PM
US
Fed Press Conference
09:30 PM
AU
Ai Group Services Index OCT 51.4 36.2
Friday November 06 2020 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
AU
RBA Statement on Monetary Policy
07:00 AM
DE
Industrial Production MoM SEP 1.6% 0.5% ®
07:45 AM
FR
Balance of Trade SEP €-5.8B €-7.7B
08:30 AM
GB
Halifax House Price Index MoM OCT 0.3% 1.5% ®
08:30 AM
GB
Halifax House Price Index YoY OCT 7.5% 7.3%
09:00 AM
IT
Retail Sales MoM SEP -0.8% 8.2%
12:00 PM
BR
Inflation Rate YoY OCT 3.92% 3.14%
01:30 PM
CA
Employment Change OCT 83.6K 378.2K
01:30 PM
CA
Full Time Employment Chg OCT 69.1K 334K
01:30 PM
CA
Participation Rate OCT 65.2% 65%
01:30 PM
CA
Part Time Employment Chg OCT 14.5K 44.2K ®
01:30 PM
CA
Unemployment Rate OCT 8.9% 9%
01:30 PM
US
Non Farm Payrolls OCT 638K 672K ®
01:30 PM
US
Unemployment Rate OCT 6.9% 7.9%
02:00 PM
CA
BoC Gov Macklem Speech
02:00 PM
CA
BoC Schembri Speech
02:30 PM
PL
Interest Rate Decision 0.1% 0.1%
03:00 PM
CA
Ivey PMI s.a OCT 54.5 54.3
03:00 PM
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM SEP 0.4% 0.5% ®
04:00 PM
RU
Inflation Rate YoY OCT 4% 3.7%
Saturday November 07 2020 Actual Previous
03:00 AM
CN
Balance of Trade OCT $58.44B $37B
03:00 AM
CN
Exports YoY OCT 11.4% 9.9%
03:00 AM
CN
Imports YoY OCT 4.7% 13.2%
Sunday November 08 2020 Actual Previous
11:50 PM
JP
BoJ Summary of Opinions




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