Week Ahead

All eyes turn to US Fed Chair Powell's testimony before Congress next week, as well as the US jobs report due Friday, which will probably point to a further slowdown in the labor market recovery. Elsewhere, GDP data for Brazil, Australia, Turkey and Canada will be in the spotlight as well as worldwide manufacturing and services PMI surveys and monetary policy action by the RBA and RBI. Other releases include trade figures for the US and Canada, factory orders for the US and Germany, industrial output and retail sales for Japan and South Korea.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 11/27/2020 5:23:52 PM
In the US, investor focus turns to the November's jobs report, which will probably show a payroll increase of just 520 thousand, the smallest employment gain since the labor market recovery started back in May from a record 20.787 million loss in April. The unemployment rate is seen falling to 6.8 percent, moving further away from an all-time high of 14.7 percent hit in April but remaining well above pre-pandemic levels of about 3.5 percent. Meanwhile, the ISM PMI surveys should signal a slowdown in both manufacturing and service growth rates during November, as record increases in COVID-19 cases and new lockdowns across the country hit activity and demand. Other notable publications are foreign trade balance; factory orders; construction spending; ADP employment change; pending home sales; Chicago PMI; Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index; and the final readings of Markit PMIs.

Elsewhere in America, key data to follow include Canada third-quarter GDP growth, current account employment figures, trade balance, producer prices and Markit Manufacturing PMI; Mexico business and consumer morale, and Markit Manufacturing PMI; and Brazil third-quarter GDP, consumer price inflation, industrial output, foreign trade and Markit PMI numbers.

It will be a soft week in the UK’s economic calendar, with final Markit PMI data expected to confirm business activity ended a four-month period of expansion in November, driven by the fastest reduction in service sector output since May while manufacturing production continued to expand at a robust pace. Nationwide housing prices, alongside Markit Construction PMI, new car sales and Bank of England’s monetary indicators are also awaited.

Elsewhere in Europe, investors will keep an eye on the final Markit PMI surveys for the Euro Area, Germany and France while Italy and Spain will publish their preliminary estimates. In addition, key inflation and unemployment reports will be released for the Eurozone, Germany, Italy and Spain while several European countries will continue to update Q3 GDP growth figures, including Italy, Switzerland and Turkey. Other data to follow include: Euro Area retail sales and producer prices; Germany factory orders and retail trade; Switzerland KOF Leading indicators, consumer prices and retail sales; and Turkey inflation and trade balance. 

In China, traders will turn their attention to November’s PMI updates from both the NBS and Caixin, with forecasts pointing to a steady factory activity growth as the country continues to recover from the coronavirus crisis. In Japan, the Jibun Bank will be publishing its final PMIs for November. Other key data for Japan include industrial production, retail sales, unemployment rate, housing starts, and consumer confidence.

The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of India will hold their monetary policy meetings, but no changes are expected. On the economic data front, important releases for Australia include third-quarter GDP, current account, Ai Group manufacturing and construction indexes, trade balance, building permits, and home loans; while in India Markit PMIs will be in the spotlight.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: South Korea third-quarter GDP final reading, inflation, industrial production, retail sales, trade balance and Markit manufacturing PMI; New Zealand building permits; Hong Kong retail trade; Thailand consumer prices and current account; Indonesia and the Philippines inflation rates. 

Investors will also follow an OPEC+ meeting on Monday and Tuesday on hopes major oil producers would reach an agreement to delay a planned crude output increase in January.





 


Friday November 27 2020 Actual Previous
06:00 AM
FI
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q3 -2.7% -6.2% ®
06:00 AM
FI
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3 3.3% -3.9% ®
07:30 AM
TR
CBRT Financial Stability Report
07:45 AM
FR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3 18.7% -13.8% ®
07:45 AM
FR
Inflation Rate YoY Prel NOV 0.2% 0%
08:10 AM
DE
Bundesbank Weidmann Speech
08:30 AM
SE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3 4.9% -8.0% ®
09:00 AM
IT
Business Confidence NOV 90.2 94.7 ®
09:00 AM
IT
Consumer Confidence NOV 98.1 101.7 ®
09:00 AM
TW
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q3 3.92% -0.58%
10:00 AM
EA
Consumer Confidence Final NOV -17.6 -15.5
10:00 AM
EA
Economic Sentiment NOV 87.6 91.1 ®
11:55 AM
ES
Business Confidence NOV -7.7 -9.2
12:00 PM
BR
Unemployment Rate SEP 14.6% 14.4%
12:00 PM
CL
Unemployment Rate OCT 11.6% 12.3%
12:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank Balz Speech
12:00 PM
IN
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 -7.5% -23.9%
12:00 PM
MX
Balance of Trade OCT $6.224B $4.385B
06:00 PM
CO
Interest Rate Decision 1.75% 1.75%
Sunday November 29 2020 Actual Previous
11:50 PM
JP
Industrial Production MoM Prel OCT 3.8% 3.9%
11:50 PM
JP
Retail Sales YoY OCT 6.4% -8.7%
Monday November 30 2020 Actual Previous
01:00 AM
CN
NBS Manufacturing PMI NOV 52.1 51.4
01:00 AM
CN
Non Manufacturing PMI NOV 56.4 56.2
05:00 AM
JP
Housing Starts YoY OCT -8.3% -9.9%
07:00 AM
DK
Unemployment Rate OCT 4.6% 4.8%
07:00 AM
TR
Balance of Trade OCT $-2.37B $-4.85B ®
07:00 AM
TR
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 6.7% -9.9%
07:00 AM
TR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q3 15.6% -10.8% ®
07:30 AM
CH
Retail Sales YoY OCT 3.1% 0.4% ®
08:00 AM
CH
KOF Leading Indicators NOV 103.5 106.3 ®
09:00 AM
PL
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q3 -1.5% -8.4% ®
09:00 AM
PL
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3 7.9% -9% ®
09:30 AM
GB
Mortgage Lending OCT £4.3B £4.9B ®
09:30 AM
GB
BoE Consumer Credit OCT £-0.6B £-0.63B ®
09:30 AM
GB
Mortgage Approvals OCT 97.5K 92.1K ®
09:40 AM
DE
Bundesbank Balz Speech
10:00 AM
IT
Inflation Rate YoY Prel NOV -0.2% -0.3%
10:30 AM
EA
ECB President Lagarde Speech
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
12:00 PM
ZA
Balance of Trade OCT ZAR36.13B ZAR33.4B ®
01:00 PM
DE
Inflation Rate YoY Prel NOV -0.3% -0.2%
01:30 PM
CA
Current Account Q3 C$-7.5B C$-7B ®
02:00 PM
IL
Interest Rate Decision 0.1% 0.1%
02:30 PM
GB
BoE Tenreyro Speech
02:45 PM
US
Chicago PMI NOV 58.2 61.1
03:00 PM
US
Pending Home Sales MoM OCT -1.1% -2% ®
03:00 PM
US
Pending Home Sales YoY OCT 20.2% 20.8% ®
03:30 PM
US
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index NOV 12 19.8
04:00 PM
CO
Unemployment Rate OCT 14.7% 15.8%
09:30 PM
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index NOV 52.1 56.3
10:00 PM
AU
Markit Manufacturing PMI Final NOV 55.8 54.2
11:00 PM
KR
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q3 -1.1%