The US jobs report will provide an insight into whether employment continued to fall in January, after an unexpected decline in non-farm payrolls in December amid a lack of fiscal stimulus and record COVID-19 infections that prompted many states to impose restrictive measures to respond to the outbreak. Also, the jobless rate is seen edging up to 6.8 percent, well above pre-pandemic levels of about 3.5 percent. Elsewhere, the ISM PMI survey should point to a robust manufacturing growth. Other notable publications are foreign trade, factory orders, construction spending, ADP employment change, fourth-quarter productivity, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, and the final readings of Markit PMIs.
On the corporate front, the fourth-quarter earnings season continues, with reports to watch including Alphabet, Amazon, Exxon Mobil, Pfizer, Gilead Sciences, Ford, PayPal and Snap.
Elsewhere in America, key data to follow include Canada employment figures, trade balance, and Ivey and Markit PMI figures; Mexico business morale, gross fixed investment and Markit Manufacturing PMI; and Brazil foreign trade, Markit PMIs and car production.
Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England is likely to stand pat on monetary policy when it meets on Thursday, with traders turning to the latest economic projections and a press conference by Governor Andrew Bailey, along with new findings into the impact of negative rates on the banking sector. Important data to follow include final Markit PMIs, mortgage approvals, Nationwide Housing prices and Bank of England’s monetary indicators.
Elsewhere in Europe, fourth-quarter GDP estimates and flash inflation rates will be released for the Eurozone and other member states including Italy. The bloc’s economy is expected to shrink 1.2% in the last quarter of 2020, partially reversing a historical rebound in Q3 as many nations tightened restrictions in November to curb new waves of Covid-19. Consumer prices in the Euro Area are expected to rise for the first time in five months. Investors will also keep an eye on the Eurozone retail trade and producer prices; Germany factory orders, retail sales and construction PMI; Italy and Spain jobs report; France balance of trade; Switzerland manufacturing PMI, retail sales and consumer survey. Also, final Markit PMIs will be released for the Eurozone, Germany and France while Italy and Spain will publish preliminary estimates.
In the Asia-Pacific region, Markit PMIs for several countries including China and India will be in the spotlight. Indonesia is set to release GDP growth figures and both the Reserve Bank of India and the Reserve Bank of Australia will decide on monetary policy although no changes are expected. In Japan, final PMI reading will be keenly watched together with household spending.