Markets Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Currency 1.36 1.36 1.37 1.37 1.38 1.39
Stock Market (points) 15515.22 15337 15160 14986 14814 14469
Government Bond 10Y (%) 0.53 0.55 0.57 0.6 0.62 0.67

Overview Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -2.10 9 4.3 3.5 1.9 1.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -0.90 -14 -7 1.1 1.5 1.8
GDP Growth Annualized (%) -8.20 25 8 7 6 3.8
Unemployment Rate (%) 13.70 15 10.5 9.5 9 7.5
Inflation Rate (%) -0.40 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.7
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.30 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.75
Balance of Trade (CAD Million) -3250.60 -1500 -2000 -1200 -1100 -500
Current Account (CAD Million) -11093.00 -18000 -16000 -15100 -14500 -15800
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.10 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2
Government Debt to GDP (%) 89.70 97 97 95 95 95
Government Budget (% of GDP) -0.70 -3.8 -3.8 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3
Business Confidence (points) 39.10 45 48 50 51.5 52.5
Manufacturing PMI (points) 40.60 44 45 47 49 51
Consumer Confidence (points) 42.33 48 51 52 52.3 53
Retail Sales MoM (%) -26.40 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4
Building Permits (CAD Thousand) 7406109.00 7900000 8150000 8180000 8200000 8250000
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 26.50 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 33.00 33 33 33 33 33

GDP Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -2.10 9 4.3 3.5 1.9 1.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -0.90 -14 -7 1.1 1.5 1.8
GDP Growth Annualized (%) -8.20 25 8 7 6 3.8
GDP (USD Billion) 1740.00 1680 1680 1720 1720 1720
GDP Constant Prices (CAD Million) 2057160.00 1804750 1954376 2079789 2088017 1989555
Gross National Product (CAD Million) 2279760.00 1968733 2152515 2304837 2313956 2191260
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (CAD Million) 438786.00 379990 408417 443613 445368 415768
GDP per capita (USD) 51357.80 52000 52000 52800 52800 52800
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 44051.05 45280 45280 45280 42365 43141
GDP From Agriculture (CAD Million) 40966.00 35366 37933 41417 41580 38616
GDP From Construction (CAD Million) 138196.00 122392 132768 139716 140269 135158
GDP From Manufacturing (CAD Million) 185841.00 172533 185020 187885 188629 188350
GDP From Mining (CAD Million) 141143.00 126110 136144 142696 143260 138594
GDP From Public Administration (CAD Million) 128957.00 114936 124839 130376 130891 127086
GDP From Services (CAD Million) 1296191.00 1206989 1312462 1310449 1315634 1336086
GDP From Transport (CAD Million) 77068.00 76102 83963 77916 78224 85475
GDP From Utilities (CAD Million) 43853.00 37557 40840 44335 44511 41575

Labour Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Unemployment Rate (%) 13.70 15 10.5 9.5 9 7.5
Employed Persons (Thousand ) 16474.50 16100 17000 17300 17600 18000
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 2619.20 3000 2700 2300 1900 1280
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 70.30 100 20 10 20 10
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 219.40 150 80 50 30 20
Employment Change (Thousand) 289.60 250 100 60 50 30
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 61.40 65.4 65 65 65.1 66
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 29.70 28.9 25.8 20.8 18.2 18
Labour Costs (points) 112.10 114 115 116 116 119
Productivity (points) 110.55 110 110 110 110 110
Wages (CAD/Hour) 27.26 26.56 27.49 27.75 28.21 28.45
Wages in Manufacturing (CAD/Hour) 27.19 26.96 28.76 27.42 28.14 29.77
Minimum Wages (CAD/Hour) 14.00 14.5 15 15 15 15
Population (Million) 37.78 37.1 38.01 38.01 38.01 38.36
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65
Job Vacancies 562910.00 561000 560000 550000 550000 570000
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 14271.20 15800 16300 16900 17150 17100
Adp Employment Change (Thousand) 208.40 50 100 70 90 40
Employment Rate (%) 52.90 52.3 53 54 55 58
Wage Growth (%) 9.10 4 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5

Prices Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Inflation Rate (%) -0.40 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.7
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.30 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 136.10 137 137 138 138 139
Core Consumer Prices (points) 134.80 137 137 138 138 140
Core Inflation Rate (%) 0.70 1.5 1.8 1.9 2 2
GDP Deflator (points) 111.70 111 112 113 113 114
Producer Prices (points) 113.60 118 119 116 115 121
Producer Prices Change (%) -4.90 0.7 1 1.2 1.3 1.5
Export Prices (points) 103.70 109 110 111 110 109
Import Prices (points) 122.90 124 124 122 122 122
Food Inflation (%) 3.10 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.8
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 145.60 146 147 148 147 150
CPI Transportation (points) 139.70 141 144 140 141 146
Wholesale Prices (points) 84.40 84 83.7 83.5 83.6 84

Money Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate (%) 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56
Money Supply M1 (CAD Million) 1219655.00 1073000 1073000 1073000 1073000 1105284
Money Supply M2 (CAD Million) 1963419.00 1755000 1755000 1755000 1755000 1812439
Banks Balance Sheet (CAD Million) 7146824.00 7170000 7200000 7215000 7227000 7250000
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 87372.00 87000 86000 86000 86000 86000
Central Bank Balance Sheet (CAD Million) 470381.00 475000 478000 479000 480000 482000
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18
Private Debt to GDP (%) 263.10 265 265 260 260 260

Trade Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Balance of Trade (CAD Million) -3250.60 -1500 -2000 -1200 -1100 -500
Current Account (CAD Million) -11093.00 -18000 -16000 -15100 -14500 -15800
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.10 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2
Imports (CAD Million) 35909.00 43500 48000 49500 50100 51300
Exports (CAD Million) 32658.40 42000 46000 48300 49000 50800
External Debt (CAD Million) 2849143.00 2860000 2865000 2840000 2830000 2750000
Capital Flows (CAD Million) -48.00 -30 -10 -25 10 -8
Foreign Direct Investment (CAD Million) 10352.00 12500 13000 13500 14000 14300
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 0.00 0 0 0 4 4
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 4523.00 4650 4800 4800 4800 4900
Tourist Arrivals 67654.00 72000 89000 95000 1190000 1890000

Government Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Government Debt to GDP (%) 89.70 97 97 95 95 95
Government Budget (% of GDP) -0.70 -3.8 -3.8 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3
Government Budget Value (CAD Million) -14794.00 -5000 -3500 -3000 1000 1036
Government Spending (CAD Million) 424726.00 367458 398846 429398 431097 406026
Government Revenues (CAD Million) 25790.00 25300 25000 25500 26300 27000
Fiscal Expenditure (CAD Million) 38020.00 40000 41000 40500 39500 35000
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 21352.00 21600 21600 21600 21600 21700
Government Debt (CAD Billion) 685.45 705 705 695 695 705

Taxes Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 26.50 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 33.00 33 33 33 33 33
Sales Tax Rate (%) 5.00 5 5 5 5 5
Social Security Rate (%) 14.09 14.09 14.09 14.09 14.09 14.09
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 7.37 7.37 7.37 7.37 7.37 7.37
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 6.72 6.72 6.72 6.72 6.72 6.72

Business Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Business Confidence (points) 39.10 45 48 50 51.5 52.5
Manufacturing PMI (points) 40.60 44 45 47 49 51
Industrial Production (%) -5.17 -3 -1.5 0.5 1 1.3
Industrial Production Mom (%) -5.22 -1.5 -0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6
Manufacturing Production (%) -8.27 -2 -1 -0.5 0.3 1.8
Capacity Utilization (%) 79.80 80.5 81.9 82.5 82.7 83
New Orders (CAD THO) 35128077.00 37000000 38800000 40000000 42000000 49000000
Bankruptcies (Companies) 108.00 238 230 230 230 230
Corporate Profits (CAD Million) 104877.00 81500 80100 81900 82100 85000
Car Registrations (Units) 47168.00 90000 105000 110000 115000 125000
Leading Economic Index (%) -11.60 -0.5 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4
Manufacturing Sales (%) -28.50 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.5
Mining Production (%) -4.11 -5.5 -4 -3 -2 -1
Wholesale Sales (%) -21.60 0.7 0.9 1.1 1 1

Consumer Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Consumer Confidence (points) 42.33 48 51 52 52.3 53
Retail Sales MoM (%) -26.40 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4
Retail Sales YoY (%) -32.50 -3.7 0.9 2.5 3 3.5
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) -22.00 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4
Consumer Spending (CAD Million) 1159845.00 1016732 1104280 1172603 1177243 1124157
Disposable Personal Income (CAD Million) 1319436.00 1117009 1218259 1333950 1339228 1240188
Personal Savings (%) 6.10 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.9 3.1
Consumer Credit (CAD Million) 614980.00 549905 596233 645587 624205 606965
Private Sector Credit (CAD Million) 4613784.00 4625000 4623000 4618000 4615000 4613000
Bank Lending Rate (%) 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45
Households Debt To Income (%) 172.22 175 175 175 175 175
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.78 0.74 0.7 0.67 0.64 0.6

Housing Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Building Permits (CAD Thousand) 7406109.00 7900000 8150000 8180000 8200000 8250000
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 193.45 160 190 213 215 213
Housing Index (points) 104.20 104 104 104 104 104
Home Ownership Rate (%) 66.30 63 63 63 63 64


This page has economic forecasts for Canada including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Canada economy.