This page has economic forecasts for Canada including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Canada economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.80 5.9 6 5.8 5.8 6.7 percent
Inflation Rate 2.20 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.2 percent
Interest Rate 1.75 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75 percent
Balance of Trade -416.30 -1700 -1500 -1100 -3000 3200 CAD Million
Government Debt to GDP 89.60 94 93 93 93 93 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 1.31
1.29 1.3 1.31 1.31 1.34
Stock Market 15155.50
points
16025 15918 15813 15710 15300
Government Bond 10Y 2.36
percent
2.54 2.59 2.64 2.69 2.91
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70
percent
0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.90
percent
2.1 2.7 2.6 2.7 1.5
GDP Growth Annualized 2.90
percent
2.1 1.8 2.2 2.28 1.9
GDP 1653.04
USD Billion
1800 2000 2000 2000 2160
GDP Constant Prices 1891153.00
CAD Million
1860000 1928484 1940323 1959463 1900000
Gross National Product 2195332.00
CAD Million
2196396 2227189 2252411 2230028 2267240
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 412095.00
CAD Million
397690 422278 422809 420114 425000
GDP per capita 51315.89
USD
51700 52200 52200 52200 53000
GDP per capita PPP 44017.59
USD
44150 44700 44700 44700 45280
GDP From Agriculture 27682.00
CAD Million
28535 28632 28801 29359 30500
GDP From Construction 125947.00
CAD Million
127597 130642 131132 130746 120000
GDP From Manufacturing 185315.00
CAD Million
186878 188527 188893 188576 180000
GDP From Mining 159727.00
CAD Million
157001 159836 161786 160397 136000
GDP From Public Administration 110825.00
CAD Million
111811 113077 113667 115142 111000
GDP From Services 1251704.00
CAD Million
1260757 1272835 1281144 1290325 1330000
GDP From Transport 80919.00
CAD Million
81139 82466 83044 83206 82200
GDP From Utilities 40061.00
CAD Million
40815 40834 40162 42654 39200
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.80
percent
5.9 6 5.8 5.8 6.7
Employed Persons 18705.00
Thousand
18743 18792 18840 18888 18100
Unemployed Persons 1141.70
Thousand
1300 1135 1132 1130 1340
Part Time Employment -22.60
Thousand
4.1 3.72 3.79 3.83 3.83
Full Time Employment 33.90
Thousand
15.55 14.79 15.39 15.27 15.26
Employment Change 11.20
Thousand
17.65 17.68 17.68 17.68 17.68
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.20
percent
65.6 65.6 65.2 65.1 65
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.00
percent
12 11.5 10.92 10.91 11.8
Productivity 109.99
Index Points
111 111 111 111 114
Labour Costs 116.80
Index Points
119 118 118 118 123
Wages 24.87
CAD/Hour
25 24.6 24.86 24.86 25.8
Wages in Manufacturing 25.06
CAD/Hour
27.4 27.9 25.06 25.06 30
Minimum Wages 14.00
CAD/Hour
14 15 15 15 15
Population 36.96
Million
37.3 37.77 37.84 37.91 37.9
Retirement Age Women 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Job Vacancies 547300.00
487848 466671 475127 477103 436540
Living Wage Family 2580.00
CAD/Month
2750 2830 2578 2567 2800
Living Wage Individual 1930.00
CAD/Month
1971 1942 1928 1913 1916
Non Farm Payrolls 16632.00
Thousand
16000 16846 16905 16963 16000
Adp Employment Change -23.00
Thousand
34.53 18.89 24.75 24.21 23.9
Employment Rate 61.50
percent
61.7 61.5 61.5 61.5 62.2
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.20
percent
2.4 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.2
Inflation Rate Mom -0.40
percent
0.2 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 133.70
Index Points
134 136 137 137 140
Core Consumer Prices 131.80
Index Points
132 133 133 134 139
Core Inflation Rate 1.50
percent
1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 2.2
GDP Deflator 117.60
Index Points
118 118 118 118 118
Producer Prices 118.90
Index Points
122 124 126 126 134
Producer Prices Change 6.20
percent
6.3 5.8 5.4 5.8 4.1
Export Prices 128.40
Index Points
120 129 129 129 126
Import Prices 136.60
Index Points
136 137 137 137 139
Food Inflation 1.80
percent
1.5 1.8 1.6 1.4 2.4
CPI Housing Utilities 141.50
Index Points
143 143 144 145 149
CPI Transportation 138.40
Index Points
139 141 144 142 145
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.75
percent
1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75
Interbank Rate 2.22
percent
2.19 2.44 2.69 2.94 3.19
Money Supply M0 94210.00
CAD Million
95249 96537 97804 99068 110291
Money Supply M1 992223.00
CAD Million
1005963 1019619 1033233 1046804 1167042
Money Supply M2 1632627.00
CAD Million
1652037 1671074 1689989 1708711 1869193
Money Supply M3 2366746.00
CAD Million
2384795 2405132 2425114 2444889 2613653
Banks Balance Sheet 5652859.00
CAD Million
5673343 5660865 5664968 5659122 5660942
Central Bank Balance Sheet 115823.00
CAD Million
112000 115898 115963 115919 127000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 82088.00
USD Million
82123 82058 82058 82057 82057
Loans to Private Sector 414713.00
CAD Million
370000 434470 443598 452439 383000
Deposit Interest Rate 0.10
percent
0.1 0.35 0.6 0.85 1.1
Foreign Stock Investment 7695.00
CAD Million
11067 10098 10195 10167 10170
Private Debt to GDP 266.61
percent
265 260 260 260 255
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade -416.30
CAD Million
-1700 -1500 -1100 -3000 3200
Exports 50374.60
CAD Million
50400 50500 49700 48000 53000
Imports 50790.90
CAD Million
52100 52000 50800 51000 49800
Current Account -15880.00
CAD Million
-16262 -15772 -16534 -15706 -16213
Current Account to GDP -3.00
percent
-2.8 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -1.9
External Debt 2534415.00
CAD Billion
623 2652090 2687012 2722827 628
Terms of Trade 94.00
Index Points
88.24 93.89 93.88 93.88 90.65
Foreign Direct Investment 11674.00
CAD Million
12942 12742 12952 12683 12803
Capital Flows 0.00
CAD Million
-4 6.46 6.72 6.68 -8
Gold Reserves 0.00
Tonnes
3 -0.05 -0.04 -0.06 4
Crude Oil Production 3783.00
BBL/D/1K
4400 4000 4200 4000 4300
Terrorism Index 2.96
2.96 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.96
Tourist Arrivals 4317732.00
1612900 2355000 3157600 2538100 2600600
Weapons Sales 87.00
USD Million
175 182 188 194 143
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 89.60
percent
94 93 93 93 93
Government Budget -0.90
percent of GDP
-0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7
Government Budget Value -1875.00
CAD Million
1216 1202 1138 1133 1142
Government Spending 366209.00
CAD Million
370044 374621 375730 377638 381980
Government Revenues 25127.00
CAD Million
26337 26249 26185 26180 26189
Fiscal Expenditure 24980.00
CAD Million
25046 25047 25047 25047 25047
Military Expenditure 19837.10
USD Million
20557 20576 20594 20612 20304
Asylum Applications 5187.00
Persons
4667 4680 4675 4675 4676
Government Debt 671.25
CAD Billion
666 678 684 690 716
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 61.80
Index Points
59 60 58 57 52
Manufacturing PMI 53.90
55 55.4 54.29 54.9 52
Industrial Production 3.04
percent
1.9 2.52 4.1 2.7 0.9
Industrial Production Mom 0.65
percent
0.7 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.5
Manufacturing Production 2.82
percent
0.9 3.1 3.15 3.12 0.7
Capacity Utilization 85.50
percent
85 85.2 85 84 83
New Orders 58830069.00
CAD THO
58945983 58899404 58912593 58906471 58908149
Changes in Inventories 14112.00
CAD Million
10016 8984 8447 8219 8248
Bankruptcies 209.00
Companies
217 214 215 215 215
Corporate Profits 76692.00
CAD Million
64200 77455 77314 77625 70100
Car Registrations 177825.00
Units
165846 175145 175414 171524 173124
Leading Economic Index 0.10
percent
0.1 0 0.2 -0.1 0.2
Internet Speed 16205.66
KBps
19635 20107 20573 21035 24998
IP Addresses 15582991.00
IP
16349225 16540539 16644885 16715889 17626330
Steel Production 1120.00
Thousand Tonnes
1091 1090 1089 1088 1087
Mining Production 4.47
percent
1 4.51 4.51 4.51 1.3
Competitiveness Index 79.92
Points
80.42 80.42 80.42 80.42 82.92
Competitiveness Rank 12.00
12 12 12 12 12
Corruption Index 82.00
Points
82 82 82 82 82
Corruption Rank 8.00
8 8 8 8 8
Ease of Doing Business 22.00
20 22 21 20 14
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 57.05
Index Points
51.9 55.99 56.17 56.09 53.8
Retail Sales MoM -0.10
percent
0.36 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.3
Retail Sales YoY 3.60
percent
4.03 4.22 4.34 4.41 4.51
Retail Sales Ex Autos -0.40
percent
0.38 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.3
Consumer Spending 1083677.00
CAD Million
1096510 1105759 1111853 1123432 1110000
Disposable Personal Income 1248172.00
CAD Million
1267401 1276470 1285571 1294633 1375230
Personal Savings 3.40
percent
3.72 3.67 3.55 3.55 5
Consumer Credit 622367.00
CAD Million
594000 636252 642776 649231 614000
Private Sector Credit 4294167.00
CAD Million
4339098 4388192 4437693 4487016 4920366
Bank Lending Rate 3.95
percent
3.7 3.95 4.2 4.45 4.7
Households Debt To GDP 99.40
percent of GDP
99.3 99.04 99.03 98.9 98.66
Households Debt To Income 171.31
percent
173 172 172 174 175
Gasoline Prices 0.94
USD/Liter
0.93 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.81
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Building Permits 8055824.00
CAD Thousand
8089102 8084072 8084368 8084431 8084410
Housing Starts 205.93
Thousand units
201 201 201 201 201
Housing Index 103.30
Index Points
103 103 103 103 106
Home Ownership Rate 66.50
percent
65 66.63 66.88 67.12 63
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 26.50
percent
26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00
percent
33 33 33 33 33
Sales Tax Rate 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 5
Social Security Rate 13.81
percent
13.81 13.81 13.81 13.81 13.81
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.23
percent
7.23 7.23 7.23 7.23 7.23
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.58
percent
6.58 6.58 6.58 6.58 6.58
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Precipitation 32.85
mm
36.32 25.6 39.23 38.82 38.63
Temperature -18.18
celsius
-11.62 -20.46 7.71 2.97 -5.36



Canada - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook