The Canadian economy advanced 0.2% from a month earlier in May of 2019, easing from a 0.3% expansion in the previous month but above market expectations of a 0.1% growth. It is the third consecutive month of gains, as goods-producing industries rose 0.6%, up for a third month, and services-producing industries edged up 0.1%. Manufacturing expanded 1.2% in May, as durable manufacturing grew 2.3%, of which transportation equipment (+5.7%) led the increase, as motor vehicle production returned to normal levels, following temporary shutdowns and atypical production schedules at some plants in April. Also, the construction sector was up 0.9%, particularly residential construction (+2.2%) and the transportation and warehousing sector was up 1.0%, led by a 4.9% increase in rail transportation. On the other hand, wholesale trade fell 1.4% and mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction sector contracted 0.8%. Leading Economic Index in Canada averaged 0.20 percent from 1997 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 1.20 percent in September of 2003 and a record low of -1.40 percent in December of 2008.
Leading Economic Index in Canada is expected to be -0.10 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Canada to stand at 0.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Canada GDP MoM is projected to trend around 0.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.