The Canadian economy stalled in July 2019, after expanding 0.2 percent in the previous month and below market expectations of a 0.1 percent growth. Goods-producing industries shrank 0.7 percent, as output declined in mining, quarrying, and oil & gas extraction (-3.5%, the largest fall since May 2016); construction (-0.7%), of which residential construction (-1%), engineering & others (-0.7%) and repair construction (-1.1%); manufacturing (-0.1%), namely durable (-0.9%); and agriculture, forestry, fishing & hunting (-0.2%). Meanwhile, services-producing industries rose for the 5th consecutive month (0.3%), driven by the wholesale (1.1%), led by personal & household goods (5.5%) and motor vehicles & parts (3.9%); real estate, and rental & leasing (0.4%), in particular real estate agents & brokers (4.2%); retail trade (0.1%), mostly health & personal care (2.7%) and motor vehicle & parts dealers (1.2%); and finance & insurance (0.3%). Leading Economic Index in Canada averaged 0.20 percent from 1997 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 1.20 percent in September of 2003 and a record low of -1.40 percent in December of 2008.
Leading Economic Index in Canada is expected to be 0.10 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Canada to stand at 0.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Canada GDP MoM is projected to trend around 0.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.