The Canadian economy advanced 0.3% month-over-month in January of 2019, rebounding from a 0.1% contraction in December and beating market expectations of a a flat reading. The rise was widespread as 18 of 20 industrial sectors were up. Manufacturing rose 1.5%, more than offsetting the declines of the previous two months. The growth was widespread across subsectors as both non-durable and durable manufacturing rose. Following seven months of decline, the construction sector expanded 1.9%, the most since July 2013, with all types of construction activity increasing. Wholesale trade was up 0.8%, with seven of nine subsectors increasing. Building materials and supplies (+2.2%), personal and household goods (+2.2%) and machinery, equipment and supplies wholesaling (+0.9%) led the growth. On the other hand, mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction was down for the fifth consecutive month in January, contracting 3.1% as all subsectors declined. Leading Economic Index in Canada averaged 0.20 percent from 1997 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 1.20 percent in September of 2003 and a record low of -1.40 percent in December of 2008.
Leading Economic Index in Canada is expected to be 0.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Canada to stand at 0.10 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Canada GDP MoM is projected to trend around 0.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.