China's trade surplus was revised to USD 44.61 billion in July 2019 from a preliminary estimate of USD 45.05 billion and compared to last year's USD 27.49 billion. Balance of Trade in China averaged 99.21 USD HML from 1981 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 612.86 USD HML in October of 2015 and a record low of -320.02 USD HML in February of 2012.

Balance of Trade in China is expected to be 470.00 USD HML by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Balance of Trade in China to stand at 150.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Balance of Trade is projected to trend around 110.00 USD HML in 2020, according to our econometric models.

China Balance of Trade
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Forecast Data Chart
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-05-08 03:00 AM Balance of Trade Apr $13.84B $32.67B $35B $22B
2019-06-10 03:00 AM Balance of Trade May $41.66B $13.77B $20.5B $25B
2019-07-12 07:50 AM Balance of Trade Jun $50.98B $41.73B $44.65B $49B
2019-08-08 03:00 AM Balance of Trade Jul $45.05B $50.97B $40B $32B
2019-09-08 04:00 AM Balance of Trade Aug $44.61B $19B
2019-10-14 02:30 AM Balance of Trade Sep $ 34B
2019-11-08 03:00 AM Balance of Trade Oct $30B



China July Trade Surplus Larger than Expected

China's trade surplus soared to USD 45.05 billion in July 2019 from USD 27.49 billion in the same month a year earlier and above market consensus of USD 40 billion.

Exports rose 3.3 percent from a year earlier to USD 221.5 billion in July, defying market expectations of a 2 percent drop and following a 1.3 percent decline in June. This was the fastest yearly growth in overseas sales since March despite escalating trade tensions with the US, but the rebound may be short-lived, with Washington preparing to impose more tariffs on USD 300 billion of Chinese goods from September 1st. Sales of oil products surged 20 percent to 5.49 million tonnes, as refiners continued to move surplus products overseas. Rare earth exports, which include 17 chemical elements used in consumer electronics and military equipment, went up 15.8 percent to 5,243 tonnes last month, the highest since December 2018, despite worries over supply from China. Recently, China has raised the prospect of limiting rare earth exports to the US, but not yet publicly announced any restrictions. Meanwhile, aluminium exports fell 6.2 percent to 487,000 tonnes.

Among China's largest trade partners, exports rose to the EU (6.5 percent), ASEAN (15.6 percent), South Korea (9.2 percent), Taiwan (19.9 percent), and Australia (1.1 percent), but fell to the US (-6.5 percent) and Japan (-4.1 percent).

Imports declined 5.6 percent to USD 176.5 billion in July, less than an expected 8.3 percent fall and easing from a 7.3 percent fall in June. That was the third consecutive month of decrease in imports, suggesting domestic demand remained sluggish and could lead Beijing to add more stimulus. Purchases of unwrought copper were down 7.1 percent from a year earlier to 420,000 tonnes in July, but were up 29 percent from June and at the highest level since January. Meanwhile, imports of crude oil climbed 14 percent to 41.04 million tonnes while purchases of iron ore increased 1.2 percent to 91.02 million tonnes as supply grew from miners in Australia and Brazil. In addition, soybeans imports rose 8 percent to 8.64 million tonnes, the highest level in nearly a year, as importers increased their purchases of Brazilian beans on higher crush margins. Imports of copper concentrate, or partially processed copper ore, were up 12.4 percent to an all-time high of 2.07 million tonnes in July. Total natural gas imports were 7.89 million tonnes in July, up from 7.38 million tonnes a year earlier and the highest since January.

Imports dropped from the US (-19.1 percent), the EU (-3.3 percent), Japan (-13 percent), South Korea (-20.1 percent) and Taiwan (-6.8 percent), but were higher from Australia (18.7 percent) and ASEAN (0.4 percent).

China's trade surplus with the US narrowed to USD 27.97 billion in July from USD 29.92 billion in June. Considering the first seven months of the year, the country's trade surplus with the US was USD 168.5 billion.

In January-July, China's trade surplus surged to USD 225.67 billion from USD 162.75 billion in the corresponding period the prior year.

In yuan-denominated terms, China's trade surplus came in at CNY 310.26 billion in July, as exports jumped 10.3 percent and imports rose at much softer 0.4 percent.


General Administration of Customs | Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com
8/8/2019 9:48:14 AM



China Trade Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Balance of Trade 446.13 509.71 612.86 -320.02 USD HML [+]
Current Account 570.00 490.14 1330.85 -341.00 USD HML [+]
Current Account to GDP 0.40 1.30 10.10 -3.70 percent [+]
Imports 1769.41 1618.40 1951.34 13.88 USD HML [+]
Exports 2215.54 2128.11 2315.23 12.50 USD HML [+]
External Debt 19652.14 17106.00 19652.14 158.28 USD HML [+]
Terms of Trade 95.83 101.86 118.33 81.75 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -570.00 387.52 725.40 -1305.58 USD HML [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 788.00 707.36 1349.66 18.32 USD HML [+]
Tourist Arrivals 3054.00 2917.00 3054.00 22.96 Tens of Thousands [+]
Gold Reserves 1864.30 1852.50 1864.30 395.01 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3823.00 3895.00 4408.00 1012.00 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 5.11 5.54 6.29 1.47 [+]
Tourism Revenues 5.97 5.40 5.97 4.13 CNY Trillion [+]
Weapons Sales 1040.00 1227.00 2605.00 3.00 USD Million [+]

Exports by Country  |   Exports by Category  |   Imports by Country  |   Imports by Category



China Balance of Trade

Since 1995, China has been recording consistent trade surpluses which from 2004 to 2009 has increased 10 times. In 2018, China posted a trade surplus of USD 351.76 billion, the lowest since 2013, as exports increased 9.9 percent, its strongest performance in seven years, while imports were up 15.8 percent. The biggest trade surpluses were recorded with Hong Kong, the US, the Netherlands, India, the UK, Vietnam, Singapore and Indonesia. China recorded trade deficits with Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, Germany, Brazil and South Africa. This page provides - China Balance of Trade - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. China Balance of Trade - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on August of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
446.13 509.71 612.86 -320.02 1981 - 2019 USD HML Monthly
Current Prices, NSA




Country Last Previous
Argentina 951.00 Jul/19
Australia 8036.00 Jun/19
Brazil 2290.00 Jul/19
Canada 135.80 Jun/19
China 446.13 Jul/19
Euro Area 20611.70 Jun/19
France -5187.00 Jun/19
Germany 16821.00 Jun/19
India -13430.00 Jul/19
Indonesia -60.00 Jul/19
Italy 5728.50 Jun/19
Japan -249.59 Jul/19
Mexico 2561.00 Jun/19
Netherlands 5158.00 Jun/19
Russia 12508.00 Jun/19
Saudi Arabia 131636.00 Mar/19
Singapore 2831.10 Jul/19
South Africa 4419.50 Jun/19
South Korea 2441.00 Jul/19
Spain -1532700.00 Jun/19
Switzerland 2671.16 Jul/19
Turkey -3177.27 Jun/19
United Kingdom 1779.00 Jun/19
United States -55154.00 Jun/19


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