China's current account surplus was confirmed at USD 54.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018, smaller than last year's surplus of USD 62.3 billion. The goods trade surplus was recorded at USD 139.1 billion and the secondary income surplus at USD 2.5 billion, while the service deficit came in at USD 64.1 billion and the primary income deficit at USD 22.8 billion. In 2018, China's current account surplus decreased to USD 49.1 billion, or 0.4 percent of GDP, from 2017's USD 164.9 billion, or 1.3 percent of GDP. Current Account in China averaged 394.41 USD HML from 1998 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 1330.85 USD HML in the fourth quarter of 2008 and a record low of -341 USD HML in the first quarter of 2018.
Current Account in China is expected to be -138.47 USD HML by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Current Account in China to stand at 120.76 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Current Account is projected to trend around 67.52 USD HML in 2020, according to our econometric models.