China - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.80 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.1 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.89 4 4 3.9 3.9 5 percent
Inflation Rate 1.90 2 2.3 3 2.5 2.7 percent
Interest Rate 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.5 4.5 5.5 percent
Balance of Trade 416.13 51000000000 560 250 230 350 USD HML
Government Debt to GDP 47.60 48.2 48.2 48.7 48.7 50.2 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 6.70
6.72 6.79 6.87 6.94 7.25
Stock Market 2798.62
points
2664 2571 2481 2394 2076
Government Bond 10Y 3.51
percent
3.61 3.71 3.82 3.92 4.38
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.80
percent
1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.70
percent
6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 5.8
GDP 12237.70
USD Billion
12700 12700 13200 13200 13900
Gross National Product 824828.40
CNY HML
766850 879267 878442 790605 988871
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 346440.80
CNY HML
329436 369306 368959 339641 415341
GDP per capita 7329.09
USD
7400 7400 7950 7950 8330
GDP per capita PPP 15308.71
USD
16100 16100 16800 16800 18450
GDP From Agriculture 22087.00
CNY HML
42590 69789 9483 23523 78488
GDP From Construction 9583.00
CNY HML
38495 59364 10206 23778 66764
GDP From Manufacturing 68117.00
CNY HML
208393 298477 72545 139775 335683
GDP From Services 112428.00
CNY HML
324311 455216 119736 219940 511961
GDP From Transport 8861.00
CNY HML
28064 39232 9437 18610 44122
GDP Constant Prices 418961.00
CNY HML
612867 881712 211597 446193 991621
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.89
percent
4 4 3.9 3.9 5
Employed Persons 77640.00
Tens of Thousands
77690 77690 77740 77740 77820
Unemployed Persons 971.00
Tens of Thousands
970 971 971 971 971
Labour Costs 103.50
Index Points
104 102 104 104 103
Job Vacancies 4337000.00
5050000 4400000 6000000 5370000 4550000
Wages 74318.00
CNY/Year
79500 79500 84100 84100 88300
Wages in Manufacturing 64452.00
CNY/Year
69600 69600 74500 74500 79500
Minimum Wages 2420.00
CNY/Month
2420 2420 2540 2540 2630
Population 1390.08
Million
1398 1398 1407 1407 1415
Retirement Age Women 50.00
50 50 50 50 50
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.90
percent
2 2.3 3 2.5 2.7
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10
percent
0.23 0.3 0.18 0.18 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.90
Index Points
104 104 105 104 110
Core Consumer Prices 101.90
Index Points
104 104 104 104 108
Core Inflation Rate 1.90
percent
2.1 2.2 1.93 1.93 1.8
GDP Deflator 631.21
Index Points
635 628 639 639 640
Producer Prices 104.70
Index Points
111 109 107 109 120
Producer Prices Change 4.70
percent
4 4.1 3.9 4.2 5.5
Export Prices 100.20
Index Points
101 101 101 101 101
Import Prices 100.50
Index Points
99.18 98.83 98.92 98.82 98.84
Food Inflation 0.30
percent
1.4 1.7 2.2 2.2 3
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 4.35
percent
4.35 4.35 4.5 4.5 5.5
Cash Reserve Ratio 15.50
percent
16 16 15 15 15
Interbank Rate 3.86
percent
3.86 3.86 4.01 4.01 5.01
Money Supply M0 6960.00
CNY Billion
7001 6986 6969 6954 6804
Money Supply M1 54390.00
CNY Billion
55081 56148 57190 58217 67728
Money Supply M2 177020.00
CNY Billion
180307 183783 187308 190837 225606
Central Bank Balance Sheet 356149.44
CNY HML
357209 357999 358826 359630 366030
Banks Balance Sheet 1840.00
CNY Billion
1240 1252 1259 1259 1259
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3112129.00
USD Million
3096488 3085102 3075404 3066639 2840000
Loans to Private Sector 11800.00
CNY HML
15236 14699 14388 14399 14423
Deposit Interest Rate 0.35
percent
0.35 0.35 0.5 0.5 1.5
Loan Growth 12.70
percent
12.6 12.6 12.5 12.4 11.7
Reverse Repo Rate 2.55
percent
2.6 2.6 2.65 2.65 3.5
Loans To Banks 1268338.92
CNY HML
1315556 1350788 1385940 1421030 1768307
Fixed Asset Investment 6.00
percent
6.3 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.2
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 416.13
USD HML
51000000000 560 250 230 350
Exports 2167.40
USD HML
2130 2200 2050 2030 2230
Imports 1751.27
USD HML
1820 1840 1800 1750 2000
Current Account -341.00
USD HML
260 330 -120 156 106
Current Account to GDP 1.30
percent
1.5 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.2
External Debt 17106.00
USD HML
17800 17800 18500 18500 19000
Terms of Trade 99.70
Index Points
102 102 102 102 102
Foreign Direct Investment 683.20
USD HML
950 1300 747 1000 1500
Capital Flows 725.40
USD HML
220 510 474 377 620
Tourist Arrivals 2917.00
Tens of Thousands
2961 2961 3050 3050 3100
Gold Reserves 1842.60
Tonnes
1843 1843 1843 1843 1843
Crude Oil Production 3758.00
BBL/D/1K
3758 3662 3757 3757 3576
Terrorism Index 5.54
5.39 5.27 5.27 5.28 5.57
Weapons Sales 1131.00
USD Million
1750 1872 1840 1809 1735
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 47.60
percent
48.2 48.2 48.7 48.7 50.2
Government Budget -3.50
percent of GDP
-4.2 -4.2 -3.8 -3.8 -3.4
Government Budget Value 83.10
CNY HML
-310 -359 -273 -60 -496
Government Spending 203330.00
CNY HML
194040 216750 216546 200051 243769
Government Revenues 17631.00
CNY HML
13500 11500 15000 18600 13000
Fiscal Expenditure 17003.00
CNY HML
21000 25000 22500 28800 26800
Military Expenditure 228173.00
USD Million
256000 256000 280000 280000 300000
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 51.50
Index Points
50.9 51.4 51.6 52 51
Services PMI 53.90
Index Points
52.8 52.2 52.3 53 52
Manufacturing PMI 51.00
50.9 51.2 51.6 50.9 53.4
Non Manufacturing PMI 55.00
percent
54 54.6 53 52.6 52
Industrial Production 6.00
percent
6.5 6.4 6.2 6 5.2
Industrial Production Mom 0.36
percent
0.7 0.3 0.51 0.1 0.3
Manufacturing Production 6.00
percent
6.5 6 6.1 6.2 5.5
New Orders 53.20
Index Points
52.58 52.58 52.64 52.63 52.64
Changes in Inventories 14186.00
CNY HML
13050 13612 13518 13424 14791
Total Vehicle Sales 2270000.00
2390259 2405034 2387178 2389599 2390991
Car Production 1930800.00
Units
2036789 2044503 2031620 2033828 2034378
Car Registrations 1874200.00
2027668 2049179 2018426 2020696 2024431
Leading Economic Index 100.53
Index Points
102 104 100 100 107
Internet Speed 7583.32
KBps
10226 10629 11021 11404 14747
IP Addresses 98862937.00
IP
75461774 72038908 68739509 65559121 39428876
Steel Production 81127.00
Thousand Tonnes
80426 80796 80955 80892 80867
Mining Production 2.70
percent
2.8 1.5 -0.5 -0.4 1.2
Capacity Utilization 76.80
percent
77 77 77.3 77.4 77.5
Competitiveness Index 5.00
Points
5 5 5 5 5
Competitiveness Rank 27.00
27 27 27 27 26
Composite Pmi 53.00
52.5 52.3 51.4 52.4 52.4
Cement Production 21521.00
Ten Thousands of Tonnes
19472 19740 19818 19729 19754
Corporate Profits 2729830.00
CNY Million
5620000 7700000 1720000 3800000 8250000
Ease of Doing Business 78.00
79 79 78 78 77
Electricity Production 510800.00
Gigawatt-hour
529145 530354 530453 530392 530407
Corruption Index 41.00
Points
41 41 42 42 42
Corruption Rank 77.00
78 78 94 93 77
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 122.90
Index Points
121 119 118 117 105
Retail Sales MoM 0.73
percent
0.5 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5
Retail Sales YoY 9.00
percent
8.5 8.4 8.5 8.1 8
Consumer Spending 317509.70
CNY HML
302319 338465 338148 311684 380656
Disposable Personal Income 36396.00
CNY
38270 39103 39709 40315 45968
Personal Savings 0.35
percent
0.3 0.35 0.3 0.3 1.1
Bank Lending Rate 4.35
percent
4.35 4.35 4.5 4.5 5.5
Consumer Credit 333730.29
CNY HML
352199 365212 377422 388828 458051
Gasoline Prices 0.84
USD/Liter
0.8 0.75 0.71 0.67 0.38
Households Debt To Gdp 48.40
percent of GDP
49.3 49.6 50 51 55
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 5.00
percent
4.9 5 5.2 5 4
Home Ownership Rate 90.00
percent
90 90 90 90 90
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent
45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate 17.00
percent
17 17 17 17 17
Social Security Rate 48.00
percent
48 48 48 48 48
Social Security Rate For Companies 37.00
percent
37 37 37 37 37
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00
percent
11 11 11 11 11
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 17.59
mm
89.56 20.21 17.24 47.56 48.95
Temperature -5.24
celsius
17.57 0.1 -4.26 17.58 6.78