Markets Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Currency 6.57 6.61 6.63 6.66 6.69 6.74
Stock Market (points) 3362.33 3263 3163 3067 2974 2786
Government Bond 10Y (%) 3.31 3.33 3.36 3.39 3.41 3.47

Overview Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) 2.70 0.9 0.9 1 1.1 1.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 4.90 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.3 5.6
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.30 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.1
Inflation Rate (%) 0.50 2.2 2.3 1.9 2.2 1.9
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.30 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.2
Interest Rate (%) 3.85 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7
Cash Reserve Ratio (%) 12.50 12 11 11 11 11
Balance of Trade (USD HML) 584.43 590 640 500 570 410
Current Account (USD HML) 942.00 720 305 250 400 340
Current Account to GDP (%) 1.00 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Government Debt to GDP (%) 50.50 55 54 54 54 54
Government Budget (% of GDP) -2.80 -4.7 -4.9 -4.9 -4.9 -4.9
Business Confidence (points) 51.40 50.5 51 51.7 52 52
Services PMI (points) 56.80 52 53 52.9 53 52.2
Non Manufacturing PMI (%) 56.20 52 51.5 50.4 51 53
Manufacturing PMI (points) 53.60 52.1 52 50 52 50.7
Consumer Confidence (points) 120.50 118 118 124 124 120
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.68 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.5
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 25.00 25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45

GDP Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) 2.70 0.9 0.9 1 1.1 1.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 4.90 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.3 5.6
GDP (USD Billion) 14342.90 14000 14600 14600 14600 14600
Gross National Product (CNY HML) 988528.90 1023127 1032024 1038944 1040921 1080423
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (CNY HML) 422018.80 436789 440588 443542 444386 461250
GDP per capita (USD) 8254.30 8130 8840 8840 8840 8840
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 16116.70 16450 17700 17700 17700 17700
GDP From Agriculture (CNY HML) 48123.00 72933 10634 27382 27434 77017
GDP From Construction (CNY HML) 48517.00 73386 9791 29990 30047 77496
GDP From Manufacturing (CNY HML) 227011.00 328208 67486 152441 152731 346587
GDP From Services (CNY HML) 400397.00 552931 128078 270950 271466 583895
GDP From Transport (CNY HML) 29803.00 44300 8211 19459 19496 46781
GDP Constant Prices (CNY HML) 722786.00 1025545 215590 479901 480815 1082976

Labour Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.30 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.1
Employed Persons (Tens of Thousands ) 77471.00 77820 77820 77820 77820 77820
Unemployed Persons (Tens of Thousands ) 1005.00 920 920 910 910 910
Wages (CNY/Year) 93383.00 94900 96500 96500 96500 96500
Wages in Manufacturing (CNY/Year) 78147.00 80500 84100 84100 84100 84100
Minimum Wages (CNY/Month) 2480.00 2480 2540 2540 2540 2540
Population (Million) 1400.05 1406 1406 1406 1406 1411
Retirement Age Women 50.00 50 50 50 50 50
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60

Prices Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Inflation Rate (%) 0.50 2.2 2.3 1.9 2.2 1.9
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.30 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 111.40 114 115 112 114 116
Core Consumer Prices (points) 100.50 106 102 102 103 108
Core Inflation Rate (%) 0.50 0.7 1 1.1 0.9 1.4
GDP Deflator (points) 684.89 700 701 698 700 713
Producer Prices (points) 106.00 104 104 101 100 106
Producer Prices Change (%) -2.10 -0.8 -0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5
Export Prices (points) 101.30 102 103 103 104 108
Import Prices (points) 96.40 93 96 94 98 100
Food Inflation (%) 2.20 8.9 11 13 14 10

Money Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Interest Rate (%) 3.85 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7
Cash Reserve Ratio (%) 12.50 12 11 11 11 11
Interbank Rate (%) 3.32 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8
Money Supply M2 (CNY Billion) 214970.00 216600 214200 214200 218000 220250
Central Bank Balance Sheet (CNY HML) 371812.72 360000 380000 340000 360000 370063
Banks Balance Sheet (CNY Billion) 689.80 1300 1900 1500 1300 1800
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 3127982.00 318000 318000 3100000 3150000 3190000
Loans to Private Sector (CNY HML) 14200.00 34000 41000 36000 38000 30000
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35
Loan Growth (%) 12.90 12.4 13.5 12 12.4 13
Lending Rate (%) 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35
Reverse Repo Rate (%) 2.20 2.2 2 2 2 2
Fixed Asset Investment (%) 1.80 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.5 5.3

Trade Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Balance of Trade (USD HML) 584.43 590 640 500 570 410
Current Account (USD HML) 942.00 720 305 250 400 340
Current Account to GDP (%) 1.00 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Imports (USD HML) 1787.39 1740 1700 1750 1800 1900
Exports (USD HML) 2371.83 2330 2340 2250 2370 2310
External Debt (USD HML) 20573.00 23000 23000 23000 23000 24500
Terms of Trade (points) 105.08 94.8 110 107 112 94.8
Foreign Direct Investment (USD HML) 1150.90 910 1300 1350 1200 1500
Capital Flows (USD HML) -942.00 620 320 450 220 -150
Tourist Arrivals (Tens of Thousands ) 3188.00 2000 2200 3000 3000 3000
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 3876.00 3876 3920 3840 3950 3790
Tourism Revenues (CNY Trillion) 5.97 5 5 5 6.15 6.15
Weapons Sales (USD Million) 1040.00 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060

Government Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Government Debt to GDP (%) 50.50 55 54 54 54 54
Government Budget (% of GDP) -2.80 -4.7 -4.9 -4.9 -4.9 -4.9
Government Budget Value (CNY Billion) -448.70 -650 -420 -420 -610 -720
Government Spending (CNY HML) 238874.00 27800 28500 28500 28500 28500
Government Revenues (CNY HML) 17531.00 17000 17000 14000 12000 14000
Fiscal Expenditure (CNY HML) 14254.00 31000 27800 33000 29000 3200
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 239223.00 300000 300000 300000 300000 300000

Taxes Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 25.00 25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate (%) 13.00 13 13 13 13 13
Social Security Rate (%) 48.00 48 48 48 48 48
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 37
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 11.00 11 11 11 11 11

Business Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Business Confidence (points) 51.40 50.5 51 51.7 52 52
Services PMI (points) 56.80 52 53 52.9 53 52.2
Non Manufacturing PMI (%) 56.20 52 51.5 50.4 51 53
Manufacturing PMI (points) 53.60 52.1 52 50 52 50.7
Industrial Production (%) 6.90 4.9 6.3 5.9 4.4 5
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.78 0.7 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.3
Manufacturing Production (%) 7.50 4.5 5.2 4.9 5.1 5.4
Changes in Inventories (CNY HML) 6609.00 14445 14445 14445 14445 14445
Total Vehicle Sales 2570000.00 2350000 2350000 2580000 2580000 2650000
Car Production (Units) 2084000.00 1880000 1930000 1810000 1850000 2050000
Car Registrations 2110000.00 1730000 1750000 1800000 1820000 1900000
Mining Production (%) 3.50 2.2 1.9 1.7 2.2 1.6
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 92555.00 89000 85000 87000 88000 83000
Capacity Utilization (%) 76.70 76.5 76.5 76.5 76.5 76
Composite Pmi (points) 55.70 51.4 53 50 53 51.6
Cement Production (Ten Thousands of Tonnes) 24099.67 22800 22400 19900 19800 19000
Electricity Production (Gigawatt-hour) 631500.00 681250 651642 651642 660200 722982
Corporate Profits (CNY Million) 4366500.00 3750000 4500000 5750000 6012000 6950000

Consumer Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Consumer Confidence (points) 120.50 118 118 124 124 120
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.68 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.5
Retail Sales YoY (%) 4.30 1.5 4.2 3.3 4.2 4.5
Consumer Spending (CNY HML) 385895.60 399402 402875 405576 406348 421768
Disposable Personal Income (CNY) 42359.00 43842 44223 44519 44604 46297
Personal Savings (%) 36.10 34 34 34 34 34
Bank Lending Rate (%) 2.95 4.35 2.95 2.95 2.95 4.35
Consumer Credit (CNY HML) 478661.42 448108 459753 479953 493543 473202
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.60 0.7 0.48 0.46 0.43 0.66
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 57.20 55 55 55 55 55

Housing Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Housing Index (%) 4.30 4.2 5.2 5.7 5.6 5.6
New Home Sales (CNY HML) 117923.00 95100 141000 127000 139000 151500


This page has economic forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy.