Markets Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Currency 7.03 7.03 7.05 7.08 7.11 7.16
Stock Market (points) 2987.93 2931 2887 2843 2800 2713
Government Bond 10Y (%) 2.88 3.09 3.12 3.14 3.17 3.22

Overview Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) 1.50 1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 6.00 4.5 4.9 5.4 5.5 5.6
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.62 4.2 3.8 3.9 4 4.5
Inflation Rate (%) 5.40 5.8 4.2 2.5 2 1.9
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 1.40 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Interest Rate (%) 4.05 4.05 3.95 3.95 3.8 3.8
Cash Reserve Ratio (%) 12.50 12 12 12 12 12
Balance of Trade (USD HML) 472.10 250 600 550 490 410
Current Account (USD HML) 401.00 250 520 520 520 80.28
Current Account to GDP (%) 0.40 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3
Government Debt to GDP (%) 50.50 52.5 52.5 52.5 52.5 54
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.20 -3.7 -3.7 -3.7 -3.7 -3.7
Business Confidence (points) 50.00 49.7 50.5 51.1 50.5 50.5
Services PMI (points) 51.80 48 52 52.5 52 52.2
Manufacturing PMI (points) 51.10 48.7 51.2 51.7 50.1 50.7
Non Manufacturing PMI (%) 54.10 51 52.5 52.5 52 52
Consumer Confidence (points) 126.60 116 120 120 115 110
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.53 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 25.00 25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45

GDP Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) 1.50 1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 6.00 4.5 4.9 5.4 5.5 5.6
GDP (USD Billion) 13608.15 15100 15100 15100 15100 15700
Gross National Product (CNY HML) 896915.60 917096 918890 921132 946246 999236
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (CNY HML) 380771.80 389339 390101 391053 401714 424210
GDP per capita (USD) 7755.00 8730 8730 8730 8730 9200
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 16186.80 18450 18450 18450 18450 19700
GDP From Agriculture (CNY HML) 70466.70 8967 23776 44166 74342 78506
GDP From Construction (CNY HML) 70904.30 11394 29810 49123 74804 78993
GDP From Manufacturing (CNY HML) 317108.70 72663 154582 236607 334550 353284
GDP From Services (CNY HML) 534233.10 130355 264636 403537 563616 595178
GDP From Transport (CNY HML) 42802.10 9598 20744 32410 45156 47685
GDP Constant Prices (CNY HML) 990865.10 222969 471922 732092 1045363 1103903

Labour Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.62 4.2 3.8 3.9 4 4.5
Employed Persons (Tens of Thousands ) 77471.00 77820 77820 77820 77820 77820
Unemployed Persons (Tens of Thousands ) 948.00 938 920 940 920 910
Wages (CNY/Year) 82461.00 89300 89300 89300 89300 94900
Wages in Manufacturing (CNY/Year) 72088.00 80500 80500 80500 80500 84100
Minimum Wages (CNY/Month) 2480.00 2480 2550 2550 2550 2620
Population (Million) 1400.05 1412 1412 1400 1406 1411
Retirement Age Women 50.00 50 50 50 50 50
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60

Prices Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Inflation Rate (%) 5.40 5.8 4.2 2.5 2 1.9
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 1.40 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 105.40 108 107 106 107 109
Core Consumer Prices (points) 101.50 104 104 104 103 105
Core Inflation Rate (%) 1.50 1.9 2 2 1.8 1.7
GDP Deflator (points) 684.89 725 714 702 699 712
Producer Prices (points) 100.10 102 102 101 101 103
Producer Prices Change (%) 0.10 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.3
Export Prices (points) 101.40 102 103 101 105 108
Import Prices (points) 96.10 102 105 102 106 108
Food Inflation (%) 20.60 17 10 6.8 4.9 2.1

Money Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Interest Rate (%) 4.05 4.05 3.95 3.95 3.8 3.8
Cash Reserve Ratio (%) 12.50 12 12 12 12 12
Interbank Rate (%) 2.73 2.7 2.7 2.85 2.85 2.85
Money Supply M2 (CNY Billion) 202310.00 202800 205805 209400 212600 220250
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 3115497.00 3120000 3100000 3100000 300000 3100000
Central Bank Balance Sheet (CNY HML) 371130.48 340000 350000 350000 350000 370063
Banks Balance Sheet (CNY Billion) 3340.00 1900 1800 1700 1300 1800
Loans to Private Sector (CNY HML) 50700.00 1900 1800 25821 1500 1800
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.1 0.35 0.35
Loan Growth (%) 12.10 13 13 12.7 12.4 12
Lending Rate (%) 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35
Reverse Repo Rate (%) 2.40 2.5 2.45 2.45 2.4 2.4
Fixed Asset Investment (%) 5.40 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.7 5.3

Trade Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Balance of Trade (USD HML) 472.10 250 600 550 490 410
Current Account (USD HML) 401.00 250 520 520 520 80.28
Current Account to GDP (%) 0.40 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3
Imports (USD HML) 1910.57 1600 1550 1650 1740 1800
Exports (USD HML) 2382.68 1850 2150 2200 2230 2210
External Debt (USD HML) 19652.14 23000 23000 23000 23000 24500
Terms of Trade (points) 105.52 100 98.1 99.02 99.06 100
Capital Flows (USD HML) -401.00 400 200 200 620 620
Foreign Direct Investment (USD HML) 126.80 400 720 720 1500 1500
Tourist Arrivals (Tens of Thousands ) 3054.00 2800 2800 2800 2800 3000
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 3794.00 3600 3700 3700 3576 3576
Tourism Revenues (CNY Trillion) 5.97 5 5 5 5 6.15
Weapons Sales (USD Million) 1040.00 1809 1060 1060 1060 1060

Government Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Government Debt to GDP (%) 50.50 52.5 52.5 52.5 52.5 54
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.20 -3.7 -3.7 -3.7 -3.7 -3.7
Government Budget Value (CNY Billion) -13.80 -350 -200 -250 -450 -450
Government Spending (CNY HML) 220904.10 225874 226316 226869 233054 246105
Government Revenues (CNY HML) 11415.00 15200 19200 19200 13000 14000
Fiscal Expenditure (CNY HML) 32411.00 26500 31500 26500 31000 3200
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 239223.00 300000 300000 300000 300000 300000

Taxes Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 25.00 25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate (%) 13.00 13 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate (%) 48.00 48 48 48 48 48
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 37
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 11.00 11 11 11 11 11

Business Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Business Confidence (points) 50.00 49.7 50.5 51.1 50.5 50.5
Services PMI (points) 51.80 48 52 52.5 52 52.2
Manufacturing PMI (points) 51.10 48.7 51.2 51.7 50.1 50.7
Non Manufacturing PMI (%) 54.10 51 52.5 52.5 52 52
Industrial Production (%) 6.90 4.7 5.2 5.2 5.2 5
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.58 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Manufacturing Production (%) 7.00 5.6 5 5 5.5 5.4
Changes in Inventories (CNY HML) 15873.10 13212 14445 14445 14445 14445
Total Vehicle Sales 1941000.00 1450000 2000000 2250000 2550000 2650000
Car Production (Units) 1444000.00 2000000 1450000 1750000 1980000 2050000
Car Registrations 1614000.00 1960000 1700000 1800000 2000000 2100000
Mining Production (%) 5.60 0.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.6
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 84265.00 82000 81500 81500 79000 81000
Capacity Utilization (%) 77.50 76 76.2 76.2 76.5 76
Composite Pmi (points) 51.90 48 51.5 52 51.4 51.6
Cement Production (Ten Thousands of Tonnes) 19935.00 16500 19500 20500 18000 19000
Corporate Profits (CNY Million) 6199550.00 1200000 2850000 4400000 6750000 6950000
Electricity Production (Gigawatt-hour) 654400.00 609911 660384 630776 681250 722982

Consumer Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Consumer Confidence (points) 126.60 116 120 120 115 110
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.53 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
Retail Sales YoY (%) 8.00 6 7.8 7.8 7.5 7.5
Consumer Spending (CNY HML) 348209.60 356044 356741 357611 367361 387933
Disposable Personal Income (CNY) 42359.00 41017 41174 41370 44689 47191
Personal Savings (%) 36.10 34 34 34 34 34
Bank Lending Rate (%) 3.15 3.25 3.25 3.4 3.4 3.4
Consumer Credit (CNY HML) 432954.13 394727 411586 428726 456767 482346
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.72 0.64 0.66 0.67 0.7 0.7
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 54.60 53 54 54 55 55

Housing Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Housing Index (%) 6.30 8 7 6.5 6 6
New Home Sales (CNY Hundreds of millions) 139440.00 41500 62000 62000 145100 151500


This page has economic forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy.