Markets Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Currency 7.01 7.04 7.07 7.1 7.12 7.18
Stock Market (points) 3383.32 3273 3173 3077 2983 2795
Government Bond 10Y (%) 3.12 3.17 3.19 3.22 3.25 3.3

Overview Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -9.80 0.6 0.9 0.9 1 1.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -6.80 3.1 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.6
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.90 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.1
Inflation Rate (%) 2.50 2.1 2 2.3 1.9 1.9
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.10 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2
Interest Rate (%) 3.85 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7
Cash Reserve Ratio (%) 12.50 12.5 12 11 11 11
Balance of Trade (USD HML) 629.30 670 690 640 500 410
Current Account (USD HML) -337.00 150 120 305 150 340
Current Account to GDP (%) 1.00 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3
Government Debt to GDP (%) 50.50 55 55 54 54 54
Government Budget (% of GDP) -2.80 -4.7 -4.7 -4.9 -4.9 -4.9
Business Confidence (points) 50.90 51.1 50.5 51 50.7 52
Services PMI (points) 58.40 51 52 53 50 52.2
Non Manufacturing PMI (%) 54.40 51.8 52 51.5 50.4 53
Manufacturing PMI (points) 51.20 50 50.1 52 49 50.7
Consumer Confidence (points) 115.80 118 118 118 124 120
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.79 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.5
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 25.00 25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45

GDP Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -9.80 0.6 0.9 0.9 1 1.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -6.80 3.1 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.6
GDP (USD Billion) 14342.90 14400 14400 15200 15200 15200
Gross National Product (CNY HML) 988528.90 910818 1023127 1032024 1038944 1080423
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (CNY HML) 422018.80 386674 436789 440588 443542 461250
GDP per capita (USD) 8254.30 8130 8130 8840 8840 8840
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 16116.70 16450 16450 17700 17700 17700
GDP From Agriculture (CNY HML) 10186.00 43672 72933 10634 10705 77017
GDP From Construction (CNY HML) 9378.00 48573 73386 9791 9856 77496
GDP From Manufacturing (CNY HML) 64642.00 233958 328208 67486 67939 346587
GDP From Services (CNY HML) 122680.00 399018 552931 128078 128937 583895
GDP From Transport (CNY HML) 7865.00 32047 44300 8211 8266 46781
GDP Constant Prices (CNY HML) 206504.00 723895 1025545 215590 217036 1082976

Labour Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.90 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.1
Employed Persons (Tens of Thousands ) 77471.00 77820 77820 77820 77820 77820
Unemployed Persons (Tens of Thousands ) 945.00 940 920 920 910 910
Wages (CNY/Year) 90501.00 92300 92300 94900 94900 94900
Wages in Manufacturing (CNY/Year) 78147.00 80500 80500 84100 84100 84100
Minimum Wages (CNY/Month) 2480.00 2550 2550 2620 2620 2620
Population (Million) 1400.05 1412 1406 1406 1406 1411
Retirement Age Women 50.00 50 50 50 50 50
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60

Prices Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Inflation Rate (%) 2.50 2.1 2 2.3 1.9 1.9
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.10 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 110.40 112 113 115 112 116
Core Consumer Prices (points) 101.60 103 103 103 102 104
Core Inflation Rate (%) 1.10 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.4
GDP Deflator (points) 684.89 699 699 701 698 712
Producer Prices (points) 105.20 102 104 101 100 106
Producer Prices Change (%) -3.00 -3 -0.8 -0.1 1.1 1.5
Export Prices (points) 107.70 101 105 105 105 108
Import Prices (points) 94.40 102 106 106 106 108
Food Inflation (%) 11.10 6.8 5.9 5.9 5.3 3.1

Money Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Interest Rate (%) 3.85 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7
Cash Reserve Ratio (%) 12.50 12.5 12 11 11 11
Interbank Rate (%) 2.38 2.68 2.68 2.68 2.68 2.68
Money Supply M2 (CNY Billion) 213490.00 209400 212600 212600 212600 220250
Central Bank Balance Sheet (CNY HML) 367870.74 390000 360000 380000 340000 370063
Banks Balance Sheet (CNY Billion) 1810.00 1700 1300 1900 1500 1800
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 3112328.00 3100000 300000 300000 3100000 3100000
Loans to Private Sector (CNY HML) 34266.00 32000 32000 34000 31000 30000
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35
Loan Growth (%) 13.20 12.7 12.4 13.5 12 13
Lending Rate (%) 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35
Reverse Repo Rate (%) 2.20 2.1 2.1 2 2 2
Fixed Asset Investment (%) -6.30 3.3 5.1 5.1 4.9 5.3

Trade Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Balance of Trade (USD HML) 629.30 670 690 640 500 410
Current Account (USD HML) -337.00 150 120 305 150 340
Current Account to GDP (%) 1.00 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3
Imports (USD HML) 1438.90 1430 1540 1700 1750 1800
Exports (USD HML) 2068.10 2100 2230 2340 2250 2210
External Debt (USD HML) 20573.00 23000 23000 23000 23000 24500
Terms of Trade (points) 114.09 99.02 99.06 99.06 99.06 100
Foreign Direct Investment (USD HML) 355.18 550 910 1300 1350 1500
Capital Flows (USD HML) 111.00 140 620 320 450 620
Tourist Arrivals (Tens of Thousands ) 3188.00 2000 2000 2000 2200 3000
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 3900.00 3700 3576 3576 3576 3576
Tourism Revenues (CNY Trillion) 5.97 5 5 5 5 6.15
Weapons Sales (USD Million) 1040.00 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060

Government Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Government Debt to GDP (%) 50.50 55 55 54 54 54
Government Budget (% of GDP) -2.80 -4.7 -4.7 -4.9 -4.9 -4.9
Government Budget Value (CNY Billion) -173.80 -250 -450 -250 -250 -450
Government Spending (CNY HML) 238874.00 27800 27800 28500 28500 28500
Government Revenues (CNY HML) 15539.00 19200 13000 13000 13000 14000
Fiscal Expenditure (CNY HML) 16685.00 26500 31000 31000 31000 3200
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 239223.00 300000 300000 300000 300000 300000

Taxes Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 25.00 25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate (%) 13.00 10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate (%) 48.00 48 48 48 48 48
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 37
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 11.00 11 11 11 11 11

Business Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Business Confidence (points) 50.90 51.1 50.5 51 50.7 52
Services PMI (points) 58.40 51 52 53 50 52.2
Non Manufacturing PMI (%) 54.40 51.8 52 51.5 50.4 53
Manufacturing PMI (points) 51.20 50 50.1 52 49 50.7
Industrial Production (%) 4.40 4.9 5.2 6.3 5.9 5
Industrial Production Mom (%) 1.53 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.3
Manufacturing Production (%) 5.20 4.7 4.5 5.2 4.9 5.4
Changes in Inventories (CNY HML) 6609.00 14445 14445 14445 14445 14445
Total Vehicle Sales 2300000.00 2250000 2350000 2350000 2580000 2650000
Car Production (Units) 1660000.00 1870000 1980000 1630000 1810000 2050000
Car Registrations 1674000.00 1710000 1730000 1750000 1800000 1900000
Mining Production (%) 1.10 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.6
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 92267.00 90200 89000 85000 87000 81000
Capacity Utilization (%) 67.30 70.2 76.5 76.5 76.5 76
Composite Pmi (points) 55.70 50 51.4 53 50 51.6
Cement Production (Ten Thousands of Tonnes) 24868.68 20500 18000 18000 18000 19000
Electricity Production (Gigawatt-hour) 554300.00 630776 681250 651642 651642 722982
Corporate Profits (CNY Million) 1843490.00 4400000 6750000 6750000 6750000 6950000

Consumer Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Consumer Confidence (points) 115.80 118 118 118 124 120
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.79 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.5
Retail Sales YoY (%) -2.80 4.8 7.5 7.5 6.3 6.5
Consumer Spending (CNY HML) 385895.60 353607 399402 402875 405576 421768
Disposable Personal Income (CNY) 42359.00 40468 43842 44223 44519 46297
Personal Savings (%) 36.10 34 34 34 34 34
Bank Lending Rate (%) 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95
Consumer Credit (CNY HML) 450447.75 423925 448108 459753 473421 473202
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.56 0.5 0.48 0.46 0.43 0.41
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 55.20 54 55 55 55 55

Housing Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Housing Index (%) 4.90 4.5 4.8 5.6 6.2 6.6
New Home Sales (CNY Hundreds of millions) 41250.00 46000 95100 141000 127000 151500


This page has economic forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy.