Imports to China slumped 8.5 percent from a year earlier to USD 178.47 billion in September 2019, compared to market consensus of a 5.2 percent fall and after a 5.6 percent drop in August. This was the fifth straight consecutive yearly decrease in imports, as purchases fell for unwrought copper (-14.6 percent), steel products (-7.6 percent), rare earth (-27.9 percent), rubber (-10 percent), and refined products (-26.5 percent). In contrast, purchases of iron ore imports jumped 93.47 percent to 99.36 million tonnes, its highest in 20 months, fuelled by firm demand at steel mills and stable shipments from big miners. Also, purchases increased for crude oil (10.8 percent), coal (20.5 percent), natural gas (7.3 percent) and soybeans (2.3 percent). Imports in China averaged 546.06 USD HML from 1981 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 1951.34 USD HML in September of 2018 and a record low of 13.88 USD HML in February of 1983.
Imports in China is expected to be 1500.00 USD HML by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Imports in China to stand at 1550.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Imports is projected to trend around 2100.00 USD HML in 2020, according to our econometric models.