China's industrial production increased 5 percent year-on-year in May 2019, easing from a 5.4 percent advance in April and missing market consensus of 5.5 percent. That was the weakest yearly growth in factory output since early 2002 amid an escalating trade dispute between Beijing and Washington, as production rose at a slower pace for both manufacturing (5 percent vs 5.3 percent in April) and utilities (5.9 percent vs 9.5 percent). Meanwhile, mining output expanded faster (3.9 percent vs 2.9 percent). By industry, output rose less for power equipment and communication, while production growth accelerated for chemicals, non-metal minerals, ferrous metals, general equipment, transport equipment and machinery. In addition, textiles output rebounded. Considering the first five months of the year, industrial production grew 6 percent compared with the same period last year. Industrial Production in China averaged 12.01 percent from 1990 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 29.40 percent in August of 1994 and a record low of -21.10 percent in January of 1990.
Industrial Production in China is expected to be 5.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production in China to stand at 5.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Industrial Production is projected to trend around 5.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.