China's retail trade rose 7.6 percent year-on-year in July 2019, easing from a 9.8 percent growth in the previous month and missing market expectations of 8.6 percent. Sales growth slowed for garments (2.9 percent vs 5.2 percent in June), cosmetics (9.4 percent vs 22.5 percent), home appliances (3 percent vs 7.7 percent), furniture (6.3 percent vs 8.3 percent), telecoms (1 percent vs 5.9 percent), and building materials (0.4 percent vs 1.1 percent). In addition, sales fell for automobiles (-2.6 percent vs 17.2 percent), jewelry (-1.6 percent vs 7.8 percent), and oil, oil products (-1.1 percent vs 3.5 percent). Meanwhile, sales grew faster for both personal care (13 percent vs 12.3 percent) and office supplies (14.5 percent vs 6.5 percent). Considering the January to July period, retail sales advanced 8.3 percent from the corresponding period a year earlier. Retail Sales YoY in China averaged 13.79 percent from 1993 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 37.40 percent in December of 1993 and a record low of 4.30 percent in May of 2003.
Retail Sales YoY in China is expected to be 7.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in China to stand at 7.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 8.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.