China's retail trade rose by 7.8 percent year-on-year in September 2019, following a 7.5 percent gain in the previous month and matching market estimates. Sales went up further for cosmetics (13.4% vs 12.8% in August), home appliances (5.4% vs 4.2%), furniture (6.3% vs 5.7%), and telecoms (8.4% vs 3.5%). In addition, sales fell less for jewellery (-6.6% vs -7%), oil & oil products (-0.4% vs -1.2%), and automobiles (-2.2% vs -8.1%). Meanwhile, sales growth slowed for garments (3.6% vs 5.2%), personal care (12% vs 13%) and building materials (4.2% vs 5.9%). Also, sales of office supplies dropped (-0.2% vs 19.8%). Considering the January to September period, retail sales rose 8.2 percent from the corresponding period a year earlier. Retail Sales YoY in China averaged 13.75 percent from 1993 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 37.40 percent in December of 1993 and a record low of 4.30 percent in May of 2003.
Retail Sales YoY in China is expected to be 8.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in China to stand at 7.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 8.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.