Colombia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Colombia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Colombia economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.9 0.8 0.9 1 1.4 percent
Unemployment Rate 9.70 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.4 percent
Inflation Rate 3.10 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.2 percent
Interest Rate 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.5 4.5 percent
Balance of Trade -0.70 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 USD Billion
Government Debt to GDP 48.50 50 50 52 52 53 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 3005.00
3015 3041 3067 3094 3204
Stock Market 1496.43
points
1535 1521 1508 1495 1443
Government Bond 10Y 6.94
percent
6.91 6.98 7.04 7.11 7.39
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60
percent
0.9 0.8 0.9 1 1.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.80
percent
3 2.6 2.8 3 3.3
GDP 309.19
USD Billion
345 345 370 370 375
GDP Constant Prices 209544.60
COP Billion
210818 232771 206567 215831 248146
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 46630.36
COP Billion
37520 38207 47255 48029 40731
GDP per capita 7600.76
USD
7790 7790 8400 8400 8600
GDP per capita PPP 13254.95
USD
13346 13285 13530 13530 13900
Gdp From Agriculture 12945.80
COP Billion
13311 13613 14072 13334 14512
Gdp From Construction 13046.86
COP Billion
15052 16868 13057 13438 17982
Gdp From Manufacturing 25216.70
COP Billion
25940 27077 24446 25973 28866
Gdp From Mining 10709.40
COP Billion
11177 11571 10773 11031 12336
Gdp From Transport 10258.45
COP Billion
10476 10809 10201 10566 11523
Gdp From Utilities 6210.00
COP Billion
6441 6553 6236 6396 6986
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.70
percent
9.7 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.4
Unemployed Persons 2404.42
Thousand
2320 2300 2400 2380 2500
Population 49.29
Million
49.69 49.69 50.1 50.1 50.6
Wages High Skilled 2499200.00
COP/Month
2502030 2502030 2480000 2480000 2508498
Wages Low Skilled 830100.00
COP/Month
828000 828000 834000 834000 850000
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.60
percent
63.67 64.5 63.78 63.79 65
Living Wage Family 1098000.00
COP/Month
1140660 1140660 1135353 1135353 1130701
Living Wage Individual 776200.00
COP/Month
778923 778923 781232 781232 779976
Employed Persons 22330.73
Thousand
22332 22475 22407 22441 22429
Employment Rate 57.44
percent
57.58 57.91 57.78 57.83 57.81
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.10
percent
3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.12
percent
0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI 142.27
Index Points
142 143 146 147 153
Core Consumer Prices 146.31
Index Points
146 147 150 151 157
Core Inflation Rate 3.54
percent
3.34 3.2 3.14 3.1 3.07
Producer Prices 113.26
Index Points
113 115 115 118 126
Food Inflation 1.30
percent
1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.6
Producer Prices Change 5.16
percent
4.6 3.6 3.8 4 4.6
CPI Housing Utilities 146.49
Index Points
146 147 148 150 156
CPI Transportation 133.19
Index Points
132 133 136 137 142
Export Prices 109.32
Index Points
109 109 109 109 109
Import Prices 114.60
Index Points
115 115 116 116 116
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 4.25
percent
4.25 4.25 4.25 4.5 4.5
Interbank Rate 4.25
percent
4.25 4.25 4.25 4.5 4.5
Money Supply M0 52812.64
COP Billion
53502 53247 53301 53278 53283
Money Supply M1 101350.22
COP Billion
100352 100271 100279 100278 100278
Money Supply M3 479532.40
COP Billion
483122 489802 496135 502497 563829
Foreign Exchange Reserves 47509.63
USD Million
47440 47387 47369 47354 47339
Deposit Interest Rate 6.00
percent
6 6 6 6.25 6.25
Money Supply M2 439512.06
COP Billion
442115 447761 453145 458509 509488
Central Bank Balance Sheet 174647.70
COP Billion
176464 175816 176164 175838 175954
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -0.70
USD Billion
-0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6
Exports 3.60
USD Billion
12 9 10.1 3.53 7.4
Imports 4.35
USD Billion
-3.7 3.5 4.7 5.3 4.2
Current Account -3215.00
USD Million
-2450 -1800 -2000 -2200 -2300
Current Account to GDP -3.30
percent
-3 -3 -3.2 -3.2 -3.3
External Debt 126249.40
USD Million
126500 127000 127100 127150 127000
Foreign Direct Investment 3661.60
USD Million
3352 3184 3297 3308 3295
Capital Flows -3032.46
USD Million
-2708 -2477 -2712 -2825 -2710
Remittances 494.30
USD Million
490 490 497 497 540
Gold Reserves 12.80
Tonnes
12.93 12.98 13.09 13.08 13.09
Crude Oil Production 866.00
BBL/D/1K
856 856 856 856 856
Terms Of Trade 136.89
Index Points
95.07 94.86 94.64 94.55 94.11
Terrorism Index 5.60
6 6 5.9 5.9 5.9
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 48.50
percent
50 50 52 52 53
Government Budget -3.00
percent of GDP
-2.9 -2.9 -2.8 -2.8 -3
Government Budget Value -7954.86
COP Billion
-2531 -4214 -2806 -3437 -3228
Government Spending 33019.08
COP Billion
25144 25621 34201 34010 27314
Government Revenues 13778.62
COP Billion
13514 13559 13295 13321 13347
Fiscal Expenditure 21733.48
COP Billion
16045 17773 16101 16759 16575
Military Expenditure 8976.14
USD Million
9305 9305 9395 9395 9400
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 5.00
Index Points
5.5 6 5.6 6 6.3
Industrial Production 3.50
percent
-0.6 1.7 -0.4 7.2 2.8
Total Vehicle Sales 11076.00
Cars
11998 13041 11967 11970 11971
Car Registrations 19315.00
19090 19214 19227 19228 19228
Leading Economic Index 2.90
percent
2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8
Internet Speed 5523.06
KBps
6141 6262 6367 6509 7796
IP Addresses 5185338.00
IP
4766838 4579935 4693934 4548981 4532621
Steel Production 95.00
Thousand Tonnes
102 101 100 101 101
Manufacturing Pmi 53.30
53.3 52.9 52.85 52.88 52.9
Cement Production 1217290.00
Tonnes
1110000 1150000 1120000 1100000 1300000
Competitiveness Index 4.29
Points
4.28 4.28 4.3 4.3 4.2
Competitiveness Rank 66.00
66 66 68 68 67
Capacity Utilization 79.77
percent
79.82 79.79 79.8 79.8 79.8
Corruption Index 37.00
Points
37 37 37 37 37
Corruption Rank 96.00
88 88 95 95 99
Ease of Doing Business 59.00
62 62 64 64 65
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 4.70
Index Points
4 4 5 4 6
Retail Sales MoM 1.50
percent
1.5 1.7 -15 1.75 1.6
Retail Sales YoY 3.20
percent
1.3 3.4 3.8 4.4 4.1
Consumer Spending 145239.70
COP Billion
90328 91419 148244 149597 97457
Private Sector Credit 240785.26
COP Million
242899 244531 245548 246152 247100
Consumer Credit 128427.06
COP Billion
130695 132943 135136 137276 156023
Households Debt To Gdp 26.32
Percent
26.14 26.13 26.08 26.08 25.94
Gasoline Prices 0.83
USD/Liter
0.85 0.8 0.75 0.71 0.56
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 128.27
Index Points
130 133 135 137 158
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00
percent
34 34 34 34 34
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00
percent
33 33 33 33 33
Sales Tax Rate 19.00
percent
19 19 19 19 19
Social Security Rate 30.50
percent
30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5
Social Security Rate For Companies 20.50
percent
20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5
Social Security Rate For Employees 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 96.30
mm
247 211 136 200 224
Temperature 25.45
celsius
24.74 24.61 25.13 25.35 25.32