Cocoa prices have increased nearly 16% since the start of the year to reach a 3-1/2-year high of $2,988 per tonne in February, driven by adverse weather in West Africa. Below-average rainfall and hot winds across most of Ivory Coast and Ghana, who produce more than 60% of the world’s cocoa, have damaged cocoa crop there prompting concerns that demand will outpace supply in 2020. In 2019, Ivory Coast and Ghana introduced a price premium of $400 a tonne over the benchmark cocoa futures price to give a better deal to farmers and combat pervasive poverty.
Historically, Cocoa reached an all time high of 5379 in July of 1977.
Cocoa is expected to trade at 2834.48 USD/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 3014.16 in 12 months time.