Shanghai steel futures extended the upward momentum to trade around CNY 5,800 a tonne in late September, the highest since mid-May and getting close to a record of CNY 6198 hit earlier this year. Environmental curbs in China’s Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces hit steel mills, with production falling in September and August as the top producer is attempting to reach carbon neutrality by 2060. Also, a strong rebound in demand for manufactured goods from cars and appliances to pipes and cans is putting additional pressure on prices. On the other hand, the Evergrande debt crisis raised concerns about a fall in demand from the property market as the sector accounts for over a third of steel consumption in China.
Historically, Steel reached an all time high of 6198 in May of 2021. Steel - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on September of 2021.
Steel is expected to trade at 5608.86 Yuan/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 5266.32 in 12 months time.