Steel has been trading below 3,400 Yuan/MT since February 3rd, a level not seen since May 2017 due to weaker demand from top consumer China as a new deadly virus spreads throughout Asia and the world. The prices are expected to recover slightly as the Trump administration has announced plans to extend tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum derivatives starting February 8th. In the last three months of 2019, the market was highly volatile. In October, the prices slumped to 3,403 Yuan/MT, the lowest since March 2018, as result of a decline in EU’s manufacturing sector due to weakened exports and investment. In December, the steel rebounded to trade at seven-month high of 4,240 Yuan/MT as demand picked up on Beijing’s economic stimulus measures.
Historically, Steel reached an all time high of 4960 in October of 2018.
Steel is expected to trade at 3737.29 Yuan/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 4112.32 in 12 months time.