Retail sales in Cyprus increased 2.7 percent year-on-year in September of 2018, after an upwardly revised 3.8 percent rise in the prior month. It is the lowest gain in retail trade since April 2017. Sales advanced less for both food products (1.7 percent vs 2.3 percent in August) and non-food products (6.2 percent vs 6.6 percent), mainly due to a 1.5 percent decline in sales of textiles, clothing and footwear. Considering the January to September period of 2018, retail sales grew 6.2 percent over a year ago. On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 1.2 percent, following a downwardly revised 4.8 percent decline in August. Retail Sales YoY in Cyprus averaged 0.48 percent from 2001 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 14.11 percent in February of 2008 and a record low of -32.96 percent in March of 2013.
Retail Sales YoY in Cyprus is expected to be 2.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Cyprus to stand at 4.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Cyprus Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 3.80 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.