The economy of Ecuador advanced 0.6 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019, easing from a 0.8 percent expansion in the previous period. It was the weakest growth rate since the third quarter of 2016, when the economy shrank 1 percent. The slowdown was mainly due to petroleum refining (-28.2 percent vs -6 percent in Q4); construction (-3.3 percent vs -0.5 percent); trade (-0.7 percent vs 1.2 percent); public administration (-1 percent vs 3.6 percent); domestic services (-3.7 percent vs -1.3 percent); transportation (0.6 percent vs 3.3 percent); communications (0.7 percent vs 2.1 percent); education, social services & health (1.4 percent vs 4.7 percent); and other services (1 percent vs 1.2 percent). On a quarterly basis, the economy contracted 1 percent, after growing 0.1 percent in the prior period. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Ecuador averaged 3.80 percent from 2000 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 10.20 percent in the second quarter of 2004 and a record low of -3.40 percent in the first quarter of 2016.
GDP Annual Growth Rate in Ecuador is expected to be 0.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Annual Growth Rate in Ecuador to stand at 0.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Ecuador GDP Annual Growth Rate is projected to trend around 1.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.