The economy of Ecuador shrank 5.4 percent year-on-year in July 2019, following an 8.2 percent contraction in the previous month. Output declined less in manufacturing (-2.1 percent from -7.7 percent in June); construction (-21.2 percent from -46.6 percent); wholesale & retail trade (-8.3 percent vs -10.8 percent); real estate (-5 percent vs -7 percent); public administration, defense & social security (-0.5 percent vs -5.7 percent); health & social services (-6.2 percent vs -10.8 percent); and other services (-0.9 percent vs -4.9 percent). Also, output rebounded in agriculture, forestry & fishing (3.2 percent vs -3.5 percent); hotels & restaurants (2.7 percent from -5.7 percent); and financial intermediation (2.7 percent from -5.7 percent). Leading Economic Index in Ecuador averaged 7.11 percent from 2003 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 110.99 percent in February of 2003 and a record low of -34.40 percent in January of 2009.
Leading Economic Index in Ecuador is expected to be -0.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Ecuador to stand at 0.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Ecuador IAE is projected to trend around 1.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.