The economy of Ecuador shrank 4.1 percent year-on-year in April 2019, after contracting 6.2 percent in the previous month. Output fell less in manufacturing (-2.5 percent from -7.6 percent in March); transportation, storage & communications (-1.4 percent form -4.3 percent); hotels & restaurants (-6.4 percent from -10.6 percent); agriculture, forestry & fishing (-2.4 percent from -8.1 percent); education (-7.6 percent from -20.9 percent); and fishing (-0.1 percent from -9.4 percent). Additionally, output rebounded for mining & quarrying (10.9 percent from -15.6 percent); construction (8.7 percent from -1.9 percent); financial intermediation (2.6 percent from -4.2 percent); and social services & health (4.8 percent from -6.4 percent). Leading Economic Index in Ecuador averaged 7.11 percent from 2003 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 110.99 percent in February of 2003 and a record low of -34.40 percent in January of 2009.
Leading Economic Index in Ecuador is expected to be 3.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Ecuador to stand at 3.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Ecuador IAE is projected to trend around 2.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.