The economy of Ecuador shrank 6.2 percent year-on-yea in March 2019, after contracting 0.1 percent in the previous month. It was the steepest contraction in the economic activity since November 2015, as output fell in retail & wholesale trade (-5.5 percent from 2.6 percent in February); transportation, storage & communications (-4.3 percent form 3.3 percent); education (-20.9 percent from 22.6 percent); social services & health (-6.4 percent from 8.8 percent). Also, output declined further in agriculture, forestry & fishing (-8 percent from -5.2 percent); while rebounded for fishing (-9.4 percent from 29 percent); mining & quarrying (-15.6 percent from 30.3 percent); hotels & restaurants (-10.6 percent from -2.8 percent); and financial intermediation (-4.2 percent from -0.5 percent). Additionally, growth slowed in utilities (5.8 percent from 9.2 percent). Leading Economic Index in Ecuador averaged 7.11 percent from 2003 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 110.99 percent in February of 2003 and a record low of -34.40 percent in January of 2009.
Leading Economic Index in Ecuador is expected to be 3.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Ecuador to stand at 3.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Ecuador IAE is projected to trend around 2.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.