Egypt - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Egypt including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Egypt economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 10.60 10.4 10.3 10 10 11 percent
Inflation Rate 14.40 13.2 14 13 16.4 9.5 percent
Interest Rate 16.75 15.75 15.75 14.75 14.5 11.75 percent
Balance of Trade -3315.00 -2920 -3300 -2620 -3435 -2700 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 101.20 89 89 85 85 83 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Stock Market 15416.31
points		 15776 15203 14652 14120 12178
Currency 17.89
 18.03 18.14 18.25 18.36 18.8
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.40
percent		 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.8
GDP 235.37
USD Billion		 270 270 300 300 315
GDP Constant Prices 907338.70
EGP Million		 898130 935093 958150 958150 1045720
GDP per capita 2785.37
USD		 2800 2800 2890 2890 2950
GDP per capita PPP 10550.21
USD		 10700 10700 11200 11200 12100
GDP From Agriculture 96587.10
EGP Million		 132132 93673 101996 101996 104755
GDP From Construction 54855.80
EGP Million		 43696 58007 57928 57928 64870
GDP From Manufacturing 152222.40
EGP Million		 153852 169668 160747 160747 189741
GDP From Mining 109152.20
EGP Million		 59779 87138 115265 115265 97447
GDP From Transport 37545.80
EGP Million		 44264 40030 39648 39648 44766
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 10.60
percent		 10.4 10.3 10 10 11
Unemployed Persons 3309.00
Thousand 		3470 3600 3286 3285 3280
Minimum Wages 1200.00
EGP/Month		 1500 1500 1800 1154 2000
Population 96.20
Million		 96.72 96 97.38 97.79 100
Wages High Skilled 3500.00
EGP/Month		 4700 4700 5000 3059 5200
Wages Low Skilled 2160.00
EGP/Month		 2250 2250 2550 1942 2700
Living Wage Family 2580.00
EGP/Month		 3800 3900 4000 2387 4100
Living Wage Individual 1110.00
EGP/Month		 2300 2480 964 975 2615
Employed Persons 26092.00
Thousand		 25830 26820 26535 26636 28164
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 14.40
percent		 13.2 14 13 16.4 9.5
Inflation Rate Mom 3.50
percent		 1.59 1.1 1.46 1.39 0.7
Consumer Price Index CPI 274.90
Index Points		 287 294 295 320 361
Core Consumer Prices 250.90
Index Points		 258 262 266 278 316
Core Inflation Rate 10.90
percent		 10.5 10.3 10.63 10.63 8.6
Food Inflation 10.13
percent		 11.5 13 12 12.5 7
Producer Prices 189.40
Index Points		 204 211 214 219 274
Producer Prices Change 28.10
percent		 22 20 18.5 15.5 13
CPI Housing Utilities 166.70
Index Points		 176 177 176 194 217
CPI Transportation 281.60
Index Points		 232 234 232 328 287
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 16.75
percent		 15.75 15.75 14.75 14.5 11.75
Money Supply M0 718996.00
EGP Million		 745872 548172 798427 824700 620173
Money Supply M1 798581.00
EGP Million		 840286 868663 896662 924520 1197369
Money Supply M2 3399825.00
EGP Million		 3587602 3715664 3843573 3969198 5118957
Banks Balance Sheet 4420860.00
EGP Million		 5885395 6628911 7256669 7884427 13995713
Foreign Exchange Reserves 44258.00
USD Million		 44404 43000 44532 44549 50400
Loans to Private Sector 787579.00
EGP Million		 799986 809110 814666 818318 825464
Deposit Interest Rate 12.09
percent		 11.09 11.09 10.09 9.84 7.09
Lending Rate 17.75
percent		 16.75 16.75 15.75 15.5 12.75
Central Bank Balance Sheet 5109319.00
EGP Million		 5462816 5629646 5791154 5940887 7008445
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -3315.00
USD Million		 -2920 -3300 -2620 -3435 -2700
Exports 2263.00
USD Million		 2280 2700 2500 2255 3400
Imports 5578.00
USD Million		 5200 6000 5120 5690 6100
Current Account -1930.50
USD Million		 -1671 -3800 -1696 -1669 -2700
Current Account to GDP -6.50
percent		 -5 -5 -4.5 -4.5 -3.9
External Debt 82884.50
USD Million		 87940 89651 90440 91592 48100
Foreign Direct Investment 3480.90
USD Million		 2902 3500 3087 3165 3400
Capital Flows 8617.10
USD Million		 6221 14000 6449 6418 15000
Remittances 7098.90
USD Million		 7731 4200 7896 7997 4800
Tourism Revenues 7.60
USD Billion		 6.83 8.9 6.55 6.49 9.1
Tourist Arrivals 793.00
Thousand		 700 769 700 700 890
Gold Reserves 77.00
Tonnes		 76.97 76.99 77.12 77.57 78.36
Crude Oil Production 560.00
BBL/D/1K		 561 561 561 561 561
Terrorism Index 7.17
 6.68 7.1 6.52 6.4 5.9
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 101.20
percent		 89 89 85 85 83
Government Budget -9.50
percent of GDP		 -8.4 -8.4 -8 -8 -8.5
Government Budget Value -267551.00
Million EGP		 -380782 -339023 -417822 -427164 -255049
Government Spending 86.00
EGP Billion		 100 90.82 90.82 90.82 102
Government Revenues 538378.00
Million EGP		 575032 720000 588133 597952 840000
Fiscal Expenditure 886774.00
Million EGP		 955813 986793 1005954 1025116 1095049
Military Expenditure 4003.80
USD Million		 7000 7000 3910 3962 8000
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Manufacturing PMI 49.40
 49.39 50.1 49.39 49.39 50.5
Industrial Production 3.80
percent		 15.7 15.1 4.11 4.11 6.4
Industrial Production Mom 2.10
percent		 -0.34 3.7 0.39 0.37 1.9
Manufacturing Production 12.60
percent		 7 3.5 4.88 4.89 5.8
Changes in Inventories 7.00
EGP Billion		 4.19 4.25 4.29 4.31 4.28
Internet Speed 1978.30
KBps		 2183 2183 2183 2183 2183
IP Addresses 4504838.00
IP		 4243970 4087162 4024207 4088967 3885131
Steel Production 625.84
Thousand Tonnes		 627 626 626 626 626
Ease of Doing Business 128.00
 126 126 127 127 125
Competitiveness Index 3.90
Points		 3.79 3.79 3.98 4.04 4.1
Competitiveness Rank 100.00
 115 115 99 94 90
Corruption Index 32.00
Points		 33 33 33 33 33
Corruption Rank 117.00
 108 106 102 99 112
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Spending 990.00
EGP Billion		 1083 1045 1045 1045 1169
Gasoline Prices 0.38
USD/Liter		 0.36 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.37
Consumer Confidence 85.00
Index Points		 86 87 85 84 82
Consumer Credit 279456.00
EGP Million		 292009 301243 310409 319515 407372
Bank Lending Rate 18.30
percent		 17.3 17.3 16.3 16.05 13.3
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 22.50
percent		 22.5 22.5 22.25 22 22.5
Personal Income Tax Rate 22.50
percent		 22.5 22.5 22.75 23 22.5
Sales Tax Rate 14.00
percent		 14 14 14 14 16
Social Security Rate 40.00
percent		 40 40 40 40 40
Social Security Rate For Companies 26.00
percent		 26 26 26 26 26
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.00
percent		 14 14 14 14 14
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 3.78
mm		 2.19 3.08 3.92 2.6 2.9
Temperature 13.83
celsius		 29.4 19.42 15.62 30.06 23.18