Egypt - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Egypt including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Egypt economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.90 9.5 9.1 9.1 8.5 7.5 percent
Inflation Rate 14.20 14.5 14 13 12.5 9.5 percent
Interest Rate 16.75 16.75 15.75 14.75 14.5 11.75 percent
Balance of Trade -4099.00 -2920 -3300 -2620 -3673 -2700 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 101.20 89 89 85 85 83 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Stock Market 14083.48
points		 15586 15387 15190 14996 14243
Currency 17.92
 17.95 17.98 18.02 18.06 18.2
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.40
percent		 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.8
GDP 235.37
USD Billion		 270 270 300 300 315
GDP Constant Prices 907338.70
EGP Million		 898130 935093 958150 958150 1045720
GDP per capita 2785.37
USD		 2800 2800 2890 2890 2950
GDP per capita PPP 10550.21
USD		 10700 10700 11200 11200 12100
GDP From Agriculture 96587.10
EGP Million		 132132 93673 101996 101996 104755
GDP From Construction 54855.80
EGP Million		 43696 58007 57928 57928 64870
GDP From Manufacturing 152222.40
EGP Million		 153852 169668 160747 160747 189741
GDP From Mining 109152.20
EGP Million		 59779 87138 115265 115265 97447
GDP From Transport 37545.80
EGP Million		 44264 40030 39648 39648 44766
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.90
percent		 9.5 9.1 9.1 8.5 7.5
Unemployed Persons 3309.00
Thousand 		3470 2900 2800 2800 2500
Minimum Wages 1200.00
EGP/Month		 1200 1200 1500 1500 2000
Population 96.20
Million		 98 98 100 100 102
Wages High Skilled 3500.00
EGP/Month		 4700 4700 5000 5000 5200
Wages Low Skilled 2160.00
EGP/Month		 2250 2250 2550 2250 2700
Living Wage Family 2580.00
EGP/Month		 2700 2700 3000 3000 4100
Living Wage Individual 1110.00
EGP/Month		 1300 1300 1500 1500 2000
Employed Persons 26092.00
Thousand		 25830 26820 26535 26636 28164
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 14.20
percent		 14.5 14 13 12.5 9.5
Inflation Rate Mom 1.80
percent		 1.59 1.1 1.46 1.39 0.7
Consumer Price Index CPI 286.40
Index Points		 290 294 295 309 361
Core Consumer Prices 252.30
Index Points		 254 260 265 277 314
Core Inflation Rate 8.80
percent		 8.9 9.6 10 10.3 8.6
Food Inflation 9.64
percent		 11.5 13 12 12.5 7
Producer Prices 202.50
Index Points		 214 224 224 226 296
Producer Prices Change 28.30
percent		 28.6 27 24 20 13
CPI Housing Utilities 178.20
Index Points		 178 177 176 188 217
CPI Transportation 283.20
Index Points		 235 234 232 317 287
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 16.75
percent		 16.75 15.75 14.75 14.5 11.75
Money Supply M0 708335.00
EGP Million		 751718 548172 806965 834366 620173
Money Supply M1 814397.00
EGP Million		 836551 860709 886767 913085 1171453
Money Supply M2 3465346.00
EGP Million		 3551278 3674968 3788620 3901558 4906014
Banks Balance Sheet 4420860.00
EGP Million		 5885395 6628911 7256669 7884427 13995713
Foreign Exchange Reserves 44420.00
USD Million		 44414 43000 44530 44545 50400
Loans to Private Sector 793946.00
EGP Million		 797970 810835 814822 818606 825152
Deposit Interest Rate 12.09
percent		 12.09 11.09 10.09 9.84 7.09
Lending Rate 17.75
percent		 17.75 16.75 15.75 15.5 12.75
Central Bank Balance Sheet 5271957.00
EGP Million		 5546145 5742369 5929803 6107608 7456572
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -4099.00
USD Million		 -2920 -3300 -2620 -3673 -2700
Exports 2235.00
USD Million		 2280 2700 2500 2201 3400
Imports 6335.00
USD Million		 5200 6000 5120 5875 6100
Current Account -1930.50
USD Million		 -1671 -3800 -1696 -1669 -2700
Current Account to GDP -6.50
percent		 -5 -5 -4.5 -4.5 -3.9
External Debt 88163.90
USD Million		 87940 89651 90440 91592 48100
Foreign Direct Investment 3668.90
USD Million		 3119 3500 3385 3608 3400
Capital Flows 8617.10
USD Million		 6221 7000 6449 6418 9000
Remittances 6464.40
USD Million		 7731 7000 7896 7997 7000
Tourism Revenues 7.60
USD Billion		 6.83 8.9 6.55 6.49 9.1
Tourist Arrivals 712.00
Thousand		 700 769 700 700 890
Gold Reserves 77.00
Tonnes		 76.97 76.99 77.12 77.57 78.36
Crude Oil Production 560.00
BBL/D/1K		 560 560 560 560 560
Terrorism Index 7.17
 6.68 7.1 6.52 6.4 5.9
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 101.20
percent		 89 89 85 85 83
Government Budget -9.50
percent of GDP		 -8.4 -8.4 -8.4 -8.4 -7.5
Government Budget Value -267551.00
Million EGP		 -380782 -339023 -417822 -427164 -255049
Government Spending 86.00
EGP Billion		 100 90.82 90.82 90.82 102
Government Revenues 538378.00
Million EGP		 575032 720000 588133 597952 840000
Fiscal Expenditure 886774.00
Million EGP		 955813 986793 1005954 1025116 1095049
Military Expenditure 4003.80
USD Million		 7000 7000 3910 3962 8000
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Manufacturing PMI 50.50
 50.2 50.8 51 51.3 50.5
Industrial Production 5.40
percent		 6 6.5 7 7.5 6.4
Industrial Production Mom 0.70
percent		 -0.38 3.7 0.38 0.38 1.9
Manufacturing Production 12.60
percent		 7 5.5 4.88 4.89 5.8
Changes in Inventories 7.00
EGP Billion		 4.19 4.25 4.29 4.31 4.28
Internet Speed 1978.30
KBps		 2183 2183 2183 2183 2183
IP Addresses 4504838.00
IP		 4243970 4087162 4024207 4088967 3885131
Steel Production 630.00
Thousand Tonnes		 627 624 625 625 625
Ease of Doing Business 128.00
 126 126 127 127 125
Competitiveness Index 3.90
Points		 3.9 3.9 4 4 4.1
Competitiveness Rank 100.00
 100 100 99 99 90
Corruption Index 32.00
Points		 33 33 33 33 33
Corruption Rank 117.00
 108 106 102 99 112
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Spending 990.00
EGP Billion		 1083 1045 1045 1045 1169
Gasoline Prices 0.38
USD/Liter		 0.36 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.37
Consumer Confidence 85.00
Index Points		 86 87 85 84 82
Consumer Credit 289397.00
EGP Million		 295588 305849 316087 326271 424730
Bank Lending Rate 17.60
percent		 17.6 16.6 15.6 15.35 12.6
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 22.50
percent		 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5
Personal Income Tax Rate 22.50
percent		 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5
Sales Tax Rate 14.00
percent		 14 14 14 14 16
Social Security Rate 40.00
percent		 40 40 40 40 40
Social Security Rate For Companies 26.00
percent		 26 26 26 26 26
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.00
percent		 14 14 14 14 14
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 3.78
mm		 2.19 3.08 3.92 2.6 2.9
Temperature 13.83
celsius		 29.4 19.42 15.62 30.06 23.18