The economic activity volume index (IVAE) in El Salvador advanced 2.7 percent year-on-year in December 2018, easing from a downwardly 3.1 percent expansion in the previous month. Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and Fisheries activities shrank 1.3 percent, after rising 0.2 percent in November. Also, a slowdown was recorded in finance & insurance (4.7 percent from 5.4 percent); trade, transport and storage, accommodation services and food services (4.3 percent from 4.5 percent); construction (5.4 percent from 8 percent); and public administration (2.1 percent from 3.0 percent). On the other hand, output rebounded in information and communications (0.5 percent from -2.1 percent) and real estate grew at a faster pace (2.1 percent from 1.6 percent). Leading Economic Index in El Salvador averaged 3.36 percent from 1991 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 20.50 percent in March of 1992 and a record low of -8.80 percent in October of 2009.
Leading Economic Index in El Salvador is expected to be 1.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in El Salvador to stand at 2.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the El Salvador Economic Activity Index YoY Change is projected to trend around 2.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.