Estonian retail trade increased 2.5 percent year-on-year in June 2019, accelerating from an 1.6 percent gain in the prior month. Retail trade growth accelerated for: other specialised stores (7.0 percent from 5.7 percent in May); textiles, clothing and footwear (11.8 percent vs 3.3 percent); household goods and appliances, hardware and building materials (3.4 percent vs 1.3 percent). In addition retail trade dropped softer for both automotive fuel (-1.8 percent vs -3.9 percent) and second-hand goods and in stalls, markets, direct sale (-1.3 percent vs -4.8 percent). Meantime, sales growth slowed for pharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetics (2.5 percent vs 9.9 percent in May); food, beverages and tobacco (12.6 percent vs 18.5 percent). On a monthly basis, retail trade fell 1.1 percent, after a 4.8 percent rise in May, the first monthly decrease in retail trade since February. Retail Sales YoY in Estonia averaged 5.19 percent from 1999 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 24.70 percent in February of 2007 and a record low of -21.60 percent in February of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in Estonia is expected to be 1.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Estonia to stand at 2.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Estonia Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 4.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.