The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the Euro Area decreased by 0.22 points to 0.82 in December 2018, well below market expectations of 0.99. It was the lowest reading since March 2017 as managers' assessment of both past and expected production deteriorated markedly, as did their appraisal of both their overall and export order books. In addition, their views on the stocks of finished products worsened to some extent. Business Confidence in the Euro Area averaged 0 Index Points from 1985 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 1.62 Index Points in January of 2018 and a record low of -3.28 Index Points in March of 2009.
Business Confidence in Euro Area is expected to be 0.75 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in Euro Area to stand at 1.10 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Euro Area Business Climate Indicator is projected to trend around 1.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.