Euro Area - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Euro Area including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Euro Area economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.7 percent
Unemployment Rate 8.40 8.3 8.2 8.1 7.9 7.2 percent
Inflation Rate 2.00 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.1 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade 16704.70 23400 27000 30500 29000 25000 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 86.70 88.7 88.7 88.2 88.2 87.8 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.17
1.14 1.13 1.11 1.09 1.02
Stock Market 3454.54
points
3313 3216 3123 3033 2696
Government Bond 10y -0.40
percent
0.06 0.12 0.2 0.29 0.51
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40
percent
0.5 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.50
percent
2.5 2.4 1.8 1.9 2.3
GDP 12589.50
USD Billion
13600 13600 14300 14300 14800
GDP Constant Prices 2626.01
EUR Billion
2631 2679 2673 2629 2806
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 545.92
EUR Billion
543 556 556 548 583
GDP per capita 40088.65
USD
40900 40900 41500 41500 42300
GDP per capita PPP 39175.25
USD
39700 39700 40500 40500 41200
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.40
percent
8.3 8.2 8.1 7.9 7.2
Unemployed Persons 13558.00
Thousand
13400 13200 13000 12900 12100
Employed Persons 157.21
Million
158 159 159 160 164
Long Term Unemployment Rate 4.10
percent
3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.2
Youth Unemployment Rate 16.80
percent
16.8 16.4 16 15.7 14
Productivity 105.30
Index Points
108 109 110 110 115
Labour Costs 102.50
Index Points
105 116 102 112 120
Wage Growth 1.80
percent
2.2 2.5 2 2.4 2.8
Population 340.72
Million
343 343 344 344 346
Full Time Employment 114569.50
Thousand
114600 115000 115400 115900 119000
Employment Change 0.40
percent
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6
Labor Force Participation Rate 57.30
percent
58 58 58.4 58.6 60
Part Time Employment 31347.80
Thousand
31600 32100 32400 32600 34200
Retirement Age Men 64.36
64.36 64.36 64.5 64.5 64.75
Retirement Age Women 63.96
63.96 63.96 64.2 64.2 64.5
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.00
percent
1.7 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50
percent
0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.83
Index Points
104 105 105 106 109
Core Consumer Prices 103.32
Index Points
104 104 104 105 108
Core Inflation Rate 1.00
percent
1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.9
GDP Deflator 108.72
Index Points
110 111 112 112 116
Producer Prices 103.30
Index Points
103 104 105 106 109
Producer Prices Change 3.00
percent
2.5 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.2
Import Prices 100.60
Index Points
103 105 105 105 108
Food Inflation 2.10
percent
1.9 2 2 2.1 2
CPI Housing Utilities 102.63
Index Points
103 104 104 104 108
CPI Transportation 105.23
Index Points
104 105 105 105 109
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.36
percent
-0.36 -0.36 -0.36 -0.36 0.39
Money Supply M1 7977746.00
EUR Million
8240000 8480000 8660000 8810000 10900000
Money Supply M2 11406313.00
EUR Million
12000000 12200000 12400000 12500000 13800000
Money Supply M3 12047276.00
EUR Million
12900000 13600000 13900000 14100000 15900000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 66.84
USD Billion
72 74 78 80 97
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4585571.00
EUR Million
4840000 4950000 5080000 5150000 6020000
Loans to Private Sector 11008903.00
EUR Million
11170000 11200000 11270000 11320000 11700000
Deposit Interest Rate -0.40
percent
-0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.35
Lending Rate 0.25
percent
0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1
Loan Growth 2.90
percent
3.2 3.4 3.2 3.2 2.8
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 16704.70
EUR Million
23400 27000 30500 29000 25000
Exports 182907.60
EUR Million
184500 186000 209000 194000 190000
Imports 166202.80
EUR Million
161100 159000 178500 165000 165000
Current Account 26.20
EUR Billion
45.4 45.1 44.2 30.6 37.4
Current Account to GDP 3.50
percent
2.4 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.9
External Debt 13514526.00
EUR Million
14500000 14600000 14700000 14800000 15400000
Capital Flows -5.85
EUR Billion
18.9 48.9 34.2 55.1 41.2
Gold Reserves 504.77
Tonnes
505 505 505 505 505
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 86.70
percent
88.7 88.7 88.2 88.2 87.8
Government Budget -0.90
percent of GDP
-1 -1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6
Government Spending 539.25
EUR Billion
544 552 549 545 578
Government Spending to GDP 47.10
percent
46.8 46.8 46.5 46.5 46.8
Government Debt 9685501.30
EUR Million
9890000 9890000 10500000 10500000 11500000
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 1.39
Index Points
1.15 1.11 1.25 1.15 1
Manufacturing PMI 54.90
55.4 57.9 57.4 55.1 53.1
Services PMI 55.20
Index Points
54.7 56.4 56.1 55.4 53.3
Composite Pmi 54.90
Index Points
55.2 57.5 57 56.4 52.7
Industrial Production 2.40
percent
3.4 2.8 2.6 3.2 2.4
Industrial Production Mom 1.30
percent
-0.6 0.5 0.3 -0.4 0.3
Manufacturing Production 2.80
percent
3.2 3.8 3.6 4 3.9
Capacity Utilization 84.40
percent
84.5 84.5 84.1 84 84.8
Changes In Inventories 4.10
EUR Billion
9.4 6.8 4.5 7.1 6
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -18.70
-6.8 9.1 15.5 24.4 32
Car Registrations 947.92
Thousand
942 962 917 932 992
Mining Production -0.90
percent
1.9 1.6 1.4 1.5 2.1
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -0.50
Index Points
-2.6 -2.2 -1.8 -2 -6.6
Retail Sales MoM 0.00
percent
0.9 -0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5
Retail Sales YoY 1.40
percent
2.4 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.7
Consumer Spending 1412.90
EUR Billion
1421 1440 1438 1425 1508
Disposable Personal Income 1733153.00
EUR Million
1780000 1810000 1830000 1850000 1980000
Personal Savings 11.98
percent
10.9 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.5
Private Sector Credit 13326344.00
EUR Million
13600000 13800000 14000000 14200000 15400000
Bank Lending Rate 2.07
percent
2.07 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.82
Economic Optimism Index 112.30
109 110 110 109 108
Consumer Credit 668203.04
EUR Million
692000 705000 709000 711000 732000
Households Debt To Gdp 58.00
percent of GDP
57 57 55 55 53.7
Households Debt To Income 93.60
percent
90.5 90.5 88.9 88.9 87.1
Consumer Confidence Price Trends 17.50
Index Points
16.7 18 17.2 16.4 15
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output 1.80
percent
3.6 1.5 2.6 2.8 2.2
Housing Index 110.14
Index Points
112 113 114 115 121
Construction Pmi 51.90
54.2 55.6 55.1 54.8 52.5
Home Ownership Rate 66.40
percent
66 66 65.9 65.9 65.5
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 23.30
percent
23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3
Personal Income Tax Rate 41.50
percent
41.5 41.5 41.5 41.5 41.5
Sales Tax Rate 20.80
percent
20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8