The ECB pushed out the timing of its first rate hike in nearly eight years to the second half of 2020 at the earliest during its June meeting, amid concerns about global growth and inflation outlook. It also announced that under TLTRO III banks will be able to borrow from the central bank at 10bps above the average rate applied in the Eurosystem’s main refinancing operations over the life of the loan. Interest Rate in the Euro Area averaged 1.92 percent from 1998 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 4.75 percent in October of 2000 and a record low of 0 percent in March of 2016.

Interest Rate in Euro Area is expected to be 0.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in Euro Area to stand at 0.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Euro Area Interest Rate is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

Euro Area Interest Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-01-24 12:45 PM ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0% 0% 0%
2019-03-07 12:45 PM ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0% 0% 0%
2019-04-10 11:45 AM ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0% 0% 0%
2019-06-06 11:45 AM ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0% 0% 0%
2019-07-25 11:45 AM ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0%
2019-07-25 12:30 PM ECB Press Conference
2019-08-07 08:00 AM ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting



ECB Policymakers Ready to Cut Rates if Needed: Minutes

ECB officials agreed that they should be prepared to ease the monetary policy stance further in response to the further weakening of the economic outlook and the muted inflation developments, minutes of the June meeting showed. Potential measures to be considered included the possibility of further extending and strengthening the Governing Council's forward guidance, resuming net asset purchases and decreasing policy rates.

Excerpts from Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, held in Vilnius on Wednesday and Thursday, 5-6 June 2019:

Responding to the further weakening of the economic outlook and the muted inflation developments, in the context of prolonged uncertainties, the extension of the calendar element of the forward guidance on interest rates was widely seen as appropriate. The point was made that, if the calendar-based component was progressively aligned with market expectations in response to changes in the macroeconomic environment, the independent value of the calendar element could be seen to be diminished. The forward guidance on the interest rate path nonetheless remained the principal instrument for adjusting the monetary policy stance and had proved effective. Moreover, the extension of the calendar-based component by six months was seen to be in line with a gradual approach to adjusting policy, which would allow monitoring in the period ahead to see whether the observed prolonged “soft patch” proved to be persistent. In addition, it was underlined that the state-contingent element embodied a powerful automatic stabiliser, as indicated by the very substantial downward shift in the entire interest rate swap curve since the beginning of the year.

With regard to the pricing of the TLTRO III operations, members widely supported the proposal made by Mr Lane and agreed with his assessment that this struck a reasonable balance between acknowledging the solid developments in bank lending and the importance of preserving the ECB’s accommodative monetary policy stance. The pricing of a minimum rate at the deposit facility rate plus 10 basis points was widely seen as very favourable and maximising the policy effectiveness of the forthcoming operations. Some arguments were made in favour of a pricing more in line with that of TLTRO II. This was seen as making the contribution of TLTRO III to the monetary policy stance even stronger. At the same time, it was acknowledged that bank lending was, overall, much stronger now than had been the case when TLTRO II was announced.

At the same time, there was broad agreement that, in the light of the heightened uncertainty, which was likely to extend further into the future, the Governing Council needed to be ready and prepared to ease the monetary policy stance further by adjusting all of its instruments, as appropriate, to achieve its price stability objective. Potential measures to be considered included the possibility of further extending and strengthening the Governing Council’s forward guidance, resuming net asset purchases and decreasing policy rates.

In this context, it was also noted that, should the environment of too low inflation continue to prevail, considerations of a more strategic nature might be warranted in order to reinforce the credibility of the ECB’s monetary policy and support the achievement of a sustained adjustment in inflation to its inflation aim. The point was made that the Governing Council’s communication should put more emphasis on the symmetry of its medium-term aim by clarifying that deviations of inflation from the Governing Council’s inflation aim would be tolerated in a symmetrical fashion, in both directions, as long as this supported the achievement of the Governing Council’s inflation aim in a sustained manner over the medium term. At the same time, the point was made that care needed to be taken to ensure that any considerations of a strategic nature could not be seen as moving the goalposts at a time when it proved challenging to achieve the Governing Council’s inflation aim.


ECB | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
7/11/2019 11:50:14 AM



Euro Area Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 0.00 0.00 4.75 0.00 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 8551886.00 8491838.00 8551886.00 444116.00 EUR Million [+]
Interbank Rate -0.40 -0.40 5.39 -0.40 percent [+]
Money Supply M2 12011083.00 11943808.00 12011083.00 1070365.00 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 12640609.00 12565781.00 12640609.00 1097239.00 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 70.73 69.93 70.73 34.91 USD Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4690441.00 4685961.00 4708899.00 692641.00 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 11261102.00 11233883.00 11261102.00 3241298.00 EUR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -0.40 -0.40 3.75 -0.40 percent [+]
Lending Rate 0.25 0.25 5.75 0.25 percent [+]
Loan Growth 3.30 3.40 9.90 -0.40 percent [+]


Euro Area Interest Rate

In the Euro Area, benchmark interest rate is set by the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. The primary objective of the ECB’s monetary policy is to maintain price stability which is to keep inflation below, but close to 2 percent over the medium term. In times of prolonged low inflation and low interest rates, ECB may also adopt non-standard monetary policy measures, such as asset purchase programmes. The official interest rate is the Main refinancing operations rate. . This page provides - Euro Area Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Euro Area Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on July of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.00 0.00 4.75 0.00 1998 - 2019 percent Daily




Country Last Previous
Argentina 59.01 Jul/19
Turkey 24.00 Jun/19
Mexico 8.25 Jul/19
Russia 7.50 Jun/19
South Africa 6.75 May/19
Brazil 6.50 Jun/19
Indonesia 6.00 Jun/19
India 5.75 Jul/19
China 4.35 Jun/19
Saudi Arabia 3.00 Jun/19
United States 2.50 Jun/19
Canada 1.75 Jul/19
South Korea 1.75 Jun/19
Singapore 1.67 Jun/19
Australia 1.00 Jul/19
United Kingdom 0.75 Jun/19
Euro Area 0.00 Jun/19
France 0.00 Jun/19
Germany 0.00 Jun/19
Italy 0.00 Jun/19
Netherlands 0.00 Jun/19
Spain 0.00 Jun/19
Japan -0.10 Jun/19
Switzerland -0.75 Jun/19


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